<DrumBeat: November 14, 2006 The Oil Drum CERA Response Thread I>

160 comments on The Potential of Electrified Urban Rail and/or Electric Vehicles

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AlanfromBigEasy on November 14, 2006 - 1:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Seeing how these two fields are sort of a keystone to the all electric future, I think this could be a serious mistake

I see EVs and nukes as ancillary (and less desireable) parts of the solution.  Thorium reactors are two (or more) generations away from widespread use (say 20% of US electrical generation) and nukes suffer from long lead times in any case.  Same for EVs.  Long lead time to mature technology and longer still to build even 20% of the car/SUV fleet.

If we were in President Carter's second term, the argument of waiting for new technologies would be more valid. But we are not.

Instead spend our limited monies on things that will have a significant impact within a decade and let market forces take care of EVs & nukes (expect at least a half dozen nukes to be ordered within 2 years).

Second, the fundamental problem here is peoples resistance to change.  Forcing the general populace to embrace light rail outright is going to be met with serious opposition ...

Sayeth the man who yesterday wanted Americans to sleep in sleeping bags and marginally heat two rooms of their homes.

Unlike near freezing in the winter, there is substantial political support for many of the Urban Rail projects listed.  Even projects rejected when gasoline was $1.09/gallon are seeing revived interest today.  Run gasoline above $4/gallon and support will grow much stronger.

I will let market forces take care of Suburbia.  I AM OPPOSED TO MAJOR TAX BREAKS TO PRESERVE SUBURBIA & EXURBIA

Tax supports for EVs larger than GEMs will do just that.

Best Hopes,

Alan

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Steve001 on November 14, 2006 - 3:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Nukes should not be left to the marketplace alone.  

There is a significant role for government here.  The government can do much to make nuclear more attractive in the marketplace.  Only big government has the resources to research the next generation of technology that will address safety, proliferation, waste, sustainability and cost issues (e.g. GenIV systems research).  

Government involvement, with a new level of political will, would also be necessary to remake the regulatory environment to ensure it is smooth, fast and reliable to lower costs.  If we had standard reactor designs that come with "pre-approvals" and a smooth predictable permit process, then the outrageous 10-year time horizon for a new nuke facility could be slashed since about 1/2 of that time is taken up by approval process bureaucracy!  

If we need a lot of new nukes ASAP (IMHO we do), especially with next generation technology, we'll need good government policy to help drive it in the right direction in the marketplace.  It will still take more time than we likely have re peak oil, so conservation will have to play a big role over the next 10-20 years and renewables will need to do as much as they can as well.  But, over the long term, our future will require a significant nuclear component if we are to maintain our industrial society, with all its attendant benefits and standard of living, without cooking the planet in greenhouse gases.

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slaphappy on November 14, 2006 - 8:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Leave them to the market place, but without externalities. If the Hummer drivers have to pay for what their smog does to my lungs, then maybe we'll have a market, but while coal and SUVs can kill people by the tens of thousands for free, I'm not sure you can really call this a market.
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160 comments on The Potential of Electrified Urban Rail and/or Electric Vehicles

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