<DrumBeat: November 15, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: November 16, 2006>

100 comments on Of China, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and "them again"

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CassandraOil on November 15, 2006 - 12:20am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Certainly, the SPR purchases were delayed until after the election, but the recent dramatic sell-off in crude oil prices reflects additional supply coming onto the market. ExxonMobil is reporting a big surge in its Asian (read: Mid-East) production over the past quarter with total worldwide production up 7%.

The conspiracy theorist in me wants to think that the Saudis were pumping unsustainably to keep their Bush friends in control of Congress, but perhaps this increased supply is just the result of the increased drilling worldwide in response to 2004-2005 prices in conjunction with a few megaprojects (Caspian, etc.) coming online.

Is this a final surge to the late 2006-early 2007 peak?

Have I been not paying attention here at TOD or has there been a lack of discussion about this decline in price and what it might mean for a blip in supply (i.e. ultimate peak right now?)

The trailing data looks like a plateau, but this price decline suggests that the fat lady is still singing ...

... and the tune? Gotterdaemerung baby!

Cassandra

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peakearl on November 15, 2006 - 1:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't think you can take the Exxon result as an example of an overall world production surge. Their 3rd Qtr production of 2646 is only 3 % of total world production, and the increase was only 195 kbpd (about 0.2% increase relative to world production) higher than last year's hurricane-reduced number, and 140 k more than 2 yrs ago. Overall the world remains pretty flat.
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peakearl on November 15, 2006 - 2:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
To expand a bit on the above, Total was down 5.5%, Chevron was flat, and BP was flat qtr to qtr (due to hurricanes in 2005), but down about 1 1/2% the first 9 mos 2006 vs 1st 9 mos 2005.
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jjhman on November 16, 2006 - 12:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
According to latest EIA numbers August 06 was a new record total, surpassing December last year.  
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peakearl on November 16, 2006 - 1:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
December 2005 was 84787 kbpd (still down due to hurricanes), August 2006 was 85096 kbpd. A 0.4% increase of 409 kbpd. I'd hardly call that a surge over an 8 month period. I'm also sure it's well within measurement error, and the 8 month average for this year is still less than for last year.

Not trying to make any big point here other than there has been no surge in production, possibly no actual increase at all. We'll have to wait for revisions, and even then any increase or decrease will be almost negligible.

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peakearl on November 16, 2006 - 12:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Make that 309 - oops.
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100 comments on Of China, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and "them again"

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