"Heat pumps only make sense for a portion of the US.  Even with the higher COP that is possible with newer designs, they don't do well in cool moist winter environments.  They spend too much time defrosting.  "

What about ground-exchange heat pumps?

"this is not a substitution. "

Any thoughts about substituting wind, and in the longer term solar, for coal and nat gas?

On ground exchange---possible but costly and less appetizing when things go wrong.  I have several friends that have invested in such systems and their dissatisfaction comes from when things go wrong underground.  

Only portions of the US have areas where wind is "reliable."  It should be included in this mix, but you can't just turn the wind on.  And as was demonstrated in CA this past summer and previously, heat waves tend to correspond with low wind just when you have the highest demand.  CA's problems were also compounded by the NG compressor cooling issue.

As for solar, I think we are probably far enough along on higher efficiency PV cells that we should consider jumping forward with them.  Solar thermal also has some promise in certain areas (e.g., Kramer Station in CA).  A point worth considering about solar cells is that the higher efficiency cells require substantial initial energy input as well as fossil fuels.  If we wait to long, solar will look like an alternative we wished we had taken and would then be tantilizingly "out of reach."  

I recommended to a friend in Peabody, MA that she install

  1. An undersized geothermal heat pump (adequate for summer cooling load)

  2. A high efficiency condensing gas furnance (~94% AFUE but the c)

and

3) A wood furnance with outside combustion air

as well as insulate & caulk/seal more.

She can "twitch between fuels".  Currently a geothermal heat pump can probably supply all her heating down to 32-40F at the lowest cost (wood perhaps cheaper, but not dramatically).  NG may be more expensive/BTU but not dramatically and the capital cost is much lower.

Wood is the emergency backup and potentially lowest cost but a hassle.  Uneven heat as well w/o air circulation but when a blizzard hits, the grid goes down, it is good to have a pile of wood !

Alan

"their dissatisfaction comes from when things go wrong underground."

What went wrong?  Were they unhappy overall -  IOW, would they do it again?