234 comments on DrumBeat: November 15, 2006
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234 comments on DrumBeat: November 15, 2006
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This is a bit misleading IMO. If for example we replace enough natural gas from electricity generation, it can be easily used directly to fuel the cars. The technology is there and can be applied to existing vehicles (at the cost of some 1-2000$, likely to drop with mass production).
Displaced coal can be liquified or maybe better - gasified with higher efficiency to be used the same way as NG.
The truth is that PO promises to be a crisis, because all of the fossil fuels seem to be reaching a logistic maximums for various reasons and to different extent. These maximums will likely convergate in time when various replacement processes start to be implemented. Another consequence is that the severity of PO will vary with the location, because coal and NG are not that fungible as oil. Coutries where coal or NG is still abundant or countries that rely on nuclear energy will be much better off.
It is very hard to build new gas docking terminal (NIMBYism and BANANA stuff)
BANANA is Build Absolutely Nothing Awfull Near Anyone.
Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything!
If you take ALL the natural gas that was used (in 2005) for electrical production and used it in place of gasoline, you would displace only 37.5% of all the gasoline used. Furthermore, I drive a NG car periodically. They burn NG or gasoline but not "both" so when you run out of NG (actually when the regulator cuts you off), unless you have some way to quick-connect a pressurized bottle of NG, you are stuck.
Our Hondas have a maximum fill pressure of 3200 psig. Our other larger vehicles have tanks pressures up to 3600 psig. Filling them is relatively simple with the quick connect system, but it is not fast. A near empty tank can take 20-40 minutes to fill to capacity with a large "fast" compressor station. Since you are compressing gas from a much lower "street pressure" to a much higher tank pressure, the compression causes the gas to heat. These compressors have a very large intercooler to drop the temperature back down to acceptable levels prior to filling the vehicle tank. Nonetheless, these tanks do get quite warm when filling. A "slow fill" system or systems with small intercoolers may take as long as eight hours to refill. Changes the experience of filling the tank to a "career."
Add to that the fact that electrical generation using natural gas primarily uses relatively new, high-efficiency simple cycle or combined cycle turbines that can only burn natural gas or distillate oil. So whatever gas you take away (and oil you save from automobiles) has to be made up by more oil use. These new simple-cycle CTs are much more efficient that just about any coal-plant except supercritical, double reheat EGUs with a nice cool lake for condenser water. And there aren't any coal-fired power plants that can match the current generation combined cycle CTs.
That's the principle behind IGCC...to gasify coal into a product that can be burned in a high-efficiency combined cycle CT that is more efficient than an equivalent coal-burner. You give up a substantial amount of the efficiency by using the coal's heating value to gasify it, but the operating at a net 40-45% efficiency compared to the more nominal 30-35% efficiency of a standard coal-plant may be worth the difference.
But the underlying point is that with 2% annual growth in various energy demands AND the need to change to a different distribution of fuels...well it's just not going to happen. Consider that without PO staring us in the face and we kept everything in it's current proportions (oil, gas, coal) that in 35 years we have to have the ability (and the infrastructure) to handle twice as much of EVERYTHING as we do now.
More over, the substitution of coal (or more clearly the liquifaction and gasification of coal) for other products we currently use won't be as much help as many think.
Thirty years ago, "we had" about 400 years of coal at the usage rate of the mid-1970s. Today we have between 250-275 years. Did we really use 125-150 years of coal in 35 years? Yes, mostly because we've doubled our rate of consumption and our estimates of the reserves (and their declining quality) have become more refined.
Currently, coal accounts for about 23% of our total energy use. With the combination of "normal growth" and susbstitution of coal products are we really likely to have enough coal for "hundreds of years?" Probably not.
Seamless transition between gas and gasoline is standard on the biogas cars sold in Sweden and its essentialy the same methane.
It would be a very good idea to build as manny nuclear powerplanst as you can and replace natural gas heating with heat pumps and any base load use of natural gas for electricity production.
Heat pumps only make sense for a portion of the US. Even with the higher COP that is possible with newer designs, they don't do well in cool moist winter environments. They spend too much time defrosting.
By seamless, do you mean that any vehicle is switchable between gasoline and methane? Do they have one injection system for gasoline and another for NG/methane?
The point I was making is that this is not a substitution. Robbing the NG from electric generation from high efficiency pre-mix NG turbines to burn in vehicles means that turbines must burn something else (distillate oil with diffusion combustion rather than pre-mix). Unless consumption is reduced, you end up with "no solution."
What about ground-exchange heat pumps?
"this is not a substitution. "
Any thoughts about substituting wind, and in the longer term solar, for coal and nat gas?
Only portions of the US have areas where wind is "reliable." It should be included in this mix, but you can't just turn the wind on. And as was demonstrated in CA this past summer and previously, heat waves tend to correspond with low wind just when you have the highest demand. CA's problems were also compounded by the NG compressor cooling issue.
As for solar, I think we are probably far enough along on higher efficiency PV cells that we should consider jumping forward with them. Solar thermal also has some promise in certain areas (e.g., Kramer Station in CA). A point worth considering about solar cells is that the higher efficiency cells require substantial initial energy input as well as fossil fuels. If we wait to long, solar will look like an alternative we wished we had taken and would then be tantilizingly "out of reach."
- An undersized geothermal heat pump (adequate for summer cooling load)
- A high efficiency condensing gas furnance (~94% AFUE but the c)
and3) A wood furnance with outside combustion air
as well as insulate & caulk/seal more.
She can "twitch between fuels". Currently a geothermal heat pump can probably supply all her heating down to 32-40F at the lowest cost (wood perhaps cheaper, but not dramatically). NG may be more expensive/BTU but not dramatically and the capital cost is much lower.
Wood is the emergency backup and potentially lowest cost but a hassle. Uneven heat as well w/o air circulation but when a blizzard hits, the grid goes down, it is good to have a pile of wood !
Alan
What went wrong? Were they unhappy overall - IOW, would they do it again?
The case for transitioning at least partially to gaseous fuels is not bad: we can obtain them from the ground, from coal, from biomass, we can even use electrolysis and mix the H2 in small proportions. The respective processes are much more efficient then turning them to liquids.
First a simple, high pressure quick connect would be possible for changing tanks, similar to how we currently fill these vehicles.
Second, a typical FRP tank (which is what our vehicles contain) take more vehicle volume than a gasoline tank. We can get about 200-250 miles per tankful. Even though methane is highly compressible (I mean that in the sense that it does not follow the ideal gas law), the combination of methane (at pressure) and tank weight required for a vehicle provides a limit to moving tanks around. You and I are not going to hoof one of these tanks around (even dividing the current single high pressure tank into two or three smaller tanks might make the individual tanks more manageable, though the total weight will increase and increases the number of connections required). Even an automatic "bottle replacement system" would require some sort of universal system for vehicles.
Third, bottle storage and inspection. It's one thing to have various LPG bottle redistribution points for gas grills and even for those systems that use a larger amount of LPG with larger truck transported replaceable bottles. But think of the footprint required for a typical "gas station" to store full, empty, and those bottles being refilled for the number vehicles served. Thats much different than underground storage tanks for liquid fuels.
Growth Rate Years Remaining
0% 90.4
2% 52.1
4% 39.0
VERY interesting for those that suppose that we can substitute (conversion losses like CTL up "consumption").
Renewables ARE needed !
Thanks,
Alan
At the end of the day, it will be easier and cheaper to convert one's F-150 to run on an EtOH blend with a smarter carb, then to try and change the entire motoring infrastructure.
And unlike the fossils, EtOH can be produced anywhere on the continent, from practically any carbonaceous material available.
Add conservation, electrification and other mitigation strategies to the mix and we should be able to keep up with a modest rate of decline.
Basic physics of moving mass does not change just because one changes fuel.
With infrastructure you might be able to produce EtOH anywherem but there are large swaths of the North American west that have low growth rate, limited biomass because they are high plains deserts. I just drove through the areas of Northern Colorado and across much of lower and middle Wyoming. There may be quite a number of gas and oil wells and much oil shale, but it's a fairly stark landscape most above 6,000 feet.
Down in Texas there's apparently 1000's of acres of mesquite that thrive in the low mositure environ and actually choke off the creation of natural water reservoirs.
There's been no way to harvest the mesquite until just recently as an outfit down there have created the first ever designated mesquite harvester.
The potential exists (and groups are working on it as we speak) to turn this unique and most unanticipated feedstock source into ethanol.