I take the opposite view.

CO2 emissions is a problem now.   Because the feedback effects could kill us.  By the time we take action, the biosphere could already have lost its capacity to restore the damage.

And because it will take so long to deal with the CO2 emissions of very long lived equipment: power plants last 50 years, cars last 15 years, planes last 30+ years, etc.  China has something like 100 coal plants under construction, and once built, carbon sequestration is that much harder to implement (to the point where it will probably never be implemented on those plants).

Peak oil?  It's a big unknown.  My own view is that we will hit PO (by the definition of an exhaustible resource) but more likely in 2020-30 than on Thanksgiving Day 2005 (Deffyes' date, I believe).

There are a *lot of alternatives to conventionally produced oil out there: tar sands in Canada, heavy oil in Venezuala, the Fischer-Tropf coal-to-oil process, NGLs.  All of these can, and will be scaled heavily (Canada alone will be 5 m b/d).  And there is still Arctic oil, deep water oil, plus further exploration and production in Africa.

But note the CO2 consequences of widespread coal-to-oil projects.

The state-owned oil companies that control most of the world's oil resources are underinvested and undermanaged.  Saudi Aramco is perhaps the best, but in Mexico, Russia, Iran, Venezuala etc, there are serious issues.  So there is likely to be more oil squeezed out there.

* peak gas, or at least accessible peak gas, worries me more, oddly. We can substitute gas for oil in a lot of applications, but we don't have ready substitutes for gas (except more coal!).  And from Simmons gas graphs at least, 'old gas fields don't fade away, they just die'.  We don't readily have the transport infrastructure to get the gas from where it is, to where it is needed, even if we do have that gas.

My own view is that we will hit PO (by the definition of an exhaustible resource) but more likely in 2020-30 than on Thanksgiving Day 2005 (Deffyes' date, I believe).

Your view is not supported either by data or mathematics. There's presently no information to counter the reasoning that we've passed the midpoint of depletion for Convencional Oil in 2005.

You should also explain that increase in Unconventional Oil production if you're aware of the Gas constraints in America.

Except this.

Oil demand has risen since then.  Inventories haven't fallen, as far as I am aware.

Prices have fallen.

If you have rising demand, and stable inventories, then supply has risen.

There is enough gas in Canada for tar sands needs, especially if you count in the Mackenzie Delta and Arctic gas reserves.  There might not be enough gas to keep Ontario's lights on, but there is enough gas for tar sands.

Totale is looking at building a nuclear reactor in the tar sands to supply steam.

Except this:

Luis is talking about conventional oil.

How long tar sands production/unconventional sources can keep up with a 4-5% decline rate in conventional oil production is the big question.

Hm. From the data I've looked at I got that feeling that we have both softening of demand (due to lagging adjustment to higher prices, US economy slowdown) and at least some additional supplies coming on line, adding in to the form of spare capacity. The price is still relatively high but is supported to a great extent by the market memory of what happens when you are out of spare capacity.

Sorry folks, but it looks  like basic supply and demand laws are functioning... and will be at least for the observable future.

hmmm...so toronto has no lights, so that the u.s. can feed it's car-new-copia?..don't think so.
"There might not be enough gas to keep Ontario's lights on, but there is enough gas for tar sands."

LOL - I missed this gem.  

Please set the scene for us at the Empire Club as the PM of Canada attempts to explain to his audience that in order for tar sand ops to continue, they must freeze!

Canadian tar sand production will not hit 5mmbbl/d.

NRCAN pegs a 'possible' tripling of production to 3mmbbl/d by 2020 but I highly doubt that as water and NatGas usage rates (let alone the fact that we are using gold to make lead) are completely unsustainable.

The GHG impact of the whole affair accounts for 1/3 of total Canadian inputs - 1/3!

Suffice to say there are already calls for a moratorium on expansion by the city, native groups, greens and opposition parties alike.

I think it is a question of time spans.

I agree by 2020 3m b/d is pushing the infrastructure to its limits.  But by 2040 or so, 5m b/d seems very possible.

On the natural gas question, what I have is the data point that 0.8 mcf is needed to produce one barrel of oil from tar sands. (that was in the fact sheet for one of the income trusts).

5m b/d is 1.825bn b/d pa, which is therefore 1.46bn mcf.  I haven't done the reserves comparison (which would have to include the Mackenzie Delta and offshore Arctic Reserves) but this doesn't seem to be impossible.  And there is the possibility of using 'mini nuke' nuclear reactors as steam sources.

Water is tricky, but again not impossible.  1. better recycling of water 2. pipe it from further away.

I suspect carbon sequestration will be used for the later plants, to reduce CO2 emissions.

At some price for oil, the political constraints can be bought off.  As Alberta's population rises, it will get more and more difficult for a Federal Government to ignore that electoral impact, and Alberta itself needs that development and investment.  When the Feds and the Provinces get aligned, things happen (think the reforms to the Canada Pension Plan).

Sir, the only reason for Alberta's increasing population is the tar sands development!  But politicians aren't deep thinkers, so maybe you wll be correct.
Most people moved to Alberta as a result of the oil and gas boom overall... not the tar sands.
"I agree by 2020 3m b/d is pushing the infrastructure to its limits.  But by 2040 or so, 5m b/d seems very possible."

This statement is nonsensical, moreover, you completely hand wave the moratorium calls away.

Meanwhile, the Mackenzie Delta pipeline is already held up by the D'nay nation nor have we covered how said pipeline is going to traverse a tundra of buckling permafrost.