I think Khebab is using just the geology to define the upper bounds of the supply, which establishes why this may actually be the peak plateau and not another interlude. The effects that emanate out from that are not as amenable to pure statistical analysis. As you note, they have the potential to be massively disruptive also but one cannot make specific predictions about how the overall system will oscillate out of control. Instead Khebab is trying to show that we're at the point where this oscillation can occur. At least that is my understanding here.