The oil traders, who have a big influence on the day-to-day price, seem to react to the "inventories".  But I think those inventories are vastly over-rated.  They are only a few days, perhaps 2 weeks, of supply.  And they're not a lot higher than they were - the "increase" is what, less than one day's supply?  Drawdown form tank farms in KSA and Europe can easily explain the commercial "inventories" in the USA.  Meanwhile the SPR is lower than it was (pre-Katrina).

Also, like WT says, the bidding war for oil happens in spurts.  So the "demand destruction" in poorer countries brings a temporary bit of "relief" to the richer countries, until the next round of bidding.  It's a "musical chairs" game and the chairs are slowly disappearing even if some fat asses are still sitting.

Anyway, I am not saying that the price signal is perfect.  Not at all -- that is why Peak Oil is so difficult to tackle.  The Market is mostly blind, until near the end.  The current visibility of some price signal is thus a sign, although uncertain, of imminent peak.

Finally, I don't think that "peak" is the important point in time.  Supply can fall behind demand even before the peak.  You would expect it to, since the supply curve flattens out as you near the peak, and the demand curve is still rising, even faster (e.g. China).  With the globalized economy dependent on "growth" that's catastrophic.  Moreover, worldwide per capita oil peaked in 1979, thus any "growth" since has been due to increasing inequity.