This link was posted by Jack early this morning, on yesterday's Drumbeat. I found it so moving that I wanted more people to read it. Things like this is the reason I say that the only thing worse than peak oil is no peak oil.

Ron Patterson

The Rising Dragon's Environmental Disaster      
Jasper Becker    
22 November 2006  
This is a chapter reprinted by arrangement with the National Geographic Society from the book Dragon Rising: An Inside Look at China Today By Jasper Becker.

An excellent book with a global perspective on the same theme, the environmental impact of human development:

Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World (2000, Global Century Series) (J R. McNeill, University Professor, Georgetown University)

Prologue excerpt.

Darwinian I agree, the only thing worse than Peak Oil is no Peak Oil.

Let's see..... scenes from Iraq are on the teevee every day, has anyone noticed that the place is a barren, dust-filled, wasteland? This is the effect of humans unless they are on a very short leash.

Darwinian,

This article perfectly sums up the problem with trying to continue the technofest despite the overwhelming evidence that such boneheaded insistence on trying to save the techno-world is in effect committing species suicide, not to mention the fate of the rest of the world's fauna and flora.

Heartbreaking is the right word. The failure of the imagination among the technos is tragic.

A perfect example of this tunnel vision is the little snit going on between yourself and WestTexas about the particular year the US peaked. Does it really matter?

The people of the world will not rise up and make the changes necessary. You only need read about the many, many environmental disasters in China to see the people will simply die in droves as the corporations rape the environment. (I define the Chinese government as a corporation, much like I define the US as a fascist state, a melding of corporate and state power.)

I do not think that anything being discussed here, including my own rants, will ever have a significant effect on stopping the species dieoff; the average world citizen is actively encouraging, abetting, investing in, and cheering on.

Therefore, these conversations must devolve to mere entertainments. The people here join to make friends and to parade their knowledge, make contentious arguments, rushing home from work each day or sneaking peeks on the company internet to check the blogs with bated breath anxious to continue the hormone stimulating virtual duels. I am not saying you are evil, bad, or even mildly impish. I am only saying that our paleolithic limbic system will not let us make the hard and rational choices that would prevent a species blowout.

It is coming, sooner rather than later. It is unstoppable.

Good luck to everyone. May you all survive to rediscover your intimate connection to nature.

A perfect example of this tunnel vision is the little snit going on between yourself and WestTexas about the particular year the US peaked. Does it really matter?

Cherenkov, I think you have someone else in mind. There is absolutely no snit between WestTexas and I as to the particular year the US peaked. We both agree it was 1970 and we both agree that natural gas peaked in 1973.

Whatever could you have been thinking?

Ron Patterson

Therefore, these conversations must devolve to mere entertainments. The people here join to make friends and to parade their knowledge, make contentious arguments, rushing home from work each day or sneaking peeks on the company internet to check the blogs with bated breath anxious to continue the hormone stimulating virtual duels. I am not saying you are evil, bad, or even mildly impish. I am only saying that our paleolithic limbic system will not let us make the hard and rational choices that would prevent a species blowout.

Apparently you are under the mistaken impression that I would disagree with you on this. No, I have been preaching this very thing from day one. You obviously have not read many of my posts or you would know this. We are but observers in the grand scheme of things. Our efforts count for naught.

I do enjoy a good argument however and that is why I am here. Yes, it is the entertainment value alone.

People who really believe they, via their efforts, can change the world are both amusing and pitiful. They are one of six and one half billion people. And that is about how much they affect the world as a whole.

Ron Patterson

People who really believe they, via their efforts, can change the world are both amusing and pitiful. They are one of six and one half billion people. And that is about how much they affect the world as a whole.

I think that there is a low probability (originally 1%-3%, now my guess is 5% - 7%) that I can change the emphasis "later" towards electrified rail.

Not turn the world (or the US) on a dime, but alter the course once the first fragments of excrement hit the rotating blade.

Part of my strategy is to preposition a logical, medium term alternative that others can focus on when they start grasping at straws.

One of my first steps was to convince the community at TOD that this is a silver BB.  I have succeeded, thus my increased odds.

Best Hopes,

Alan


Alan, how's things going?  I been looking for ya' around here, I hope you read your responses....I want you to take a look at something...
http://www.ruf.dk/

This idea has at least a 10 year history, and instead of dying away, it seems to be gaining momentum...what do ya' think?
When I first saw it, I thought it was idiotic....but then starting visualizing it in areas around me, Hardin County KY, between Radcliff and Elizabethtown, with a cross that would extend backwards into Vine Grove and Meade County, and the other end mirroring I-65 north to Louisville, the airport and straight through to the river.....ahhh, this could possibly work....it was passing the "usability" test....I want what's his name, totenella, with the "spider" pipe rider idea to see it too, it's not so far off what he talks about....dreamin', ain't it fun...:-)
What was it someone just said, "People who really believe they, via their efforts, can change the world are both amusing and pitiful."
I'll take that, how many people do you know are truly amusing....:-)

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

RUF is "gadgetbahn".

New tecnology simply takes time to work out the "bugs" in the details.  And only then can one make a valid comparision with the alternatives.

RUF does not strike me a very good idea at all from a technology/engineering POV.  I think the attraction for others is a "have your cake & eat it too appeal".  Your personal car in "electric train mode".

Another poster is very "up" on the concept of wind turbines floating and not anchored to the seabed offshore.  At first glance "nice" but I see a host of potential problems.

He proposes masses of these offshore Florida for example (good winds there) that can move aside for hurricanes.  I see side loadings and leverage issues that will be difficult to engineer around economically (they cartainly can be made stable but at what price ?)

So experiment, get a half dozen years experience, and I will consider that it MIGHT be practical.

In the case of RUF, I see it as a distraction from viable, workable solutions.

Few people realise how rich is the operating experience of 175+ years of railroad experience.  SO many problems have been resolved.  Thus my preference in the few years we have left prePO (if we are not post-PO today).

Best Hopes,

Alan


Alan,
Thanks for the feedback..., I think you are exactly right on your remark,
 I think the attraction for others is a "have your cake & eat it too appeal".  Your personal car in "electric train mode".

I have to admit, that was the first and overwhelming appeal to me.  I absolutely love trains, electric ones all the better...and the older generation certainly proved "tried and true".  

My central problem is that when I look at my local area, it is so scattered out that trying to get rider density up would be almost impossible unless we tore down and restructed the communties almost completely.  Some fellow fanciers of the "efficient transportation" idea have drawn out map after map, but to no avail...the cities and towns would have to be "recentered" or the area would have to be literally buried in train track...either way, for central KY, the expense would be astronomical, or people would have to be expected to walk long distances...I still like the idea of the old fashioned train type system, ala east coast commuter, with electric station cars to the neighborhoods...:-)
It makes a fun hobby just trying to figure it out....:-)

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Alan, what happens when you get to the end of the electrical rail line?  is the rolling stock compatible with conventional tracks and locomotives?  I live in a relatively isolated area that is less likely to be electrified, but does have a small Amtrak station.  As long as the train could switch engines, this would be a manageable problem.  
The only difference is the locomotives.  Either change them or have diesel-electrics (today 99+% are diesel electrics) that can switch fromm on-board diesel generation to grid by raising a pantograph.

In other nations with mixed electric & FF rail lines (UK, Russia, India) changing locos is the normal practive.

Long distance trains through rural areas are good candidates for electrification.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Alan you are a saint.  Ghandi comes to mind.  You just might make a difference.  I wish you all the best.
Let me add, also, someone is making a difference, if only in the wrong direction. Alan will make a difference. Keep pushing, Alan, and keep us informed what you are doing on the political front and with respect direct communication between you those making decisions.

Yes, TOD has its entertainment value, but beyond that it is a testing ground for ideas, some of which may go somewhere. Testing it here first in this laboratory, one can take it elsewhere with a better reasoned argument that just might make a difference with one's legislatures.  

 

{blush}

Best Hopes,

Alan


People who really believe they, via their efforts, can change the world are both amusing and pitiful. They are one of six and one half billion people. And that is about how much they affect the world as a whole.

I find this comment especially striking, because one solution to this problem is for us to consume less and slow reproduction.

However, the catch is that once an individual or small group implements this strategy, the niche they were "protecting" will simply be overridden by a another group with no such inhibitions.

You know, in A Thousand Barrels A Second, Tertzakain argues the opposite.  He suggests that in a future with higher energy costs people or groups who implement efficiency measures will win.  He predicts, in his words, a "race to efficiency."

That seems entirely reasonable to me.  The only way it wouldn't happen would be if we somehow had lower energy prices after the "peak" - and I don't think any of us here expect PO and then $20/bbl ten years later.

"suggests that in a future with higher energy costs people or groups who implement efficiency measures will win.  He predicts, in his words, a "race to efficiency."

That is already starting I think.  Europe seems to be holding up well, even given higher energy costs.  The test for them, though, as well as for the Japanese, will be natural gas.  Europe is facing a crucial issue on this.  If they can bring advanced technology, renewables and conservation on stream fast enough, they could be the bellweather.  The Japanese seem to be going with nuclear and renewable, with solar and hybrid and electric auto engineering more advanced there than anywhere in the world.

The test will be this:  When countries fuel consuption levels off, but there is no real economic dislocation in the country.  That will be the bellweather that we are leaving the fossil fuel age as the engine of prosperity, and entering a newer "non carbon" regime.  When it will happen, I don't know but it needs to happen soon, actually.

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Europe being overrun by Muslims for example. Or USA being overrun by Mexicans. America having been overrun by Europeans over the last 300 years, if you want to see a little further. The Tragedy Of The Commons is the fatal catch, and there is no way around it.
People who really believe they, via their efforts, can change the world are both amusing and pitiful. They are one of six and one half billion people. And that is about how much they affect the world as a whole.

Hmmm...so everyone should just give up trying to change things and join the cattle herd.  Man, someone should have told Martin Luther King, Jr., Rosa Parks, Leonardo da Vinci, Galileo, Grandma Moses, Einstein, Tesla, Cindy Sheehan, the one dude that faced off the tank at Tiananmen Square....they missed that little piece of advice.

You know, you may be correct, but I would rather have it written on my tombstone that I tried to do something, tried to change something...even if I'm one stinking, naive SOB...than never tried at all.

Listen Dragonfly, no one said you should not try to save your own ass. You are powerless to save the whole damn world! That is the point. And the efforts of Tesla, Sheehan and others had nothing with saving the world from massive overshoot.

When you are listing the efforts of people, and the success they had, it would be helpful if you listed the things they were trying to accomplish. NONE of the people you listed were trying to save the world from overshoot, overpopulation and energy depletion. they all had other goals in mine. And they were successful. They were successful because their efforts were directed at much lesser goals than saving the world from dramatic overshoot.

So Dragonfly, you can make preperations to save yourself and your family, or you can spend your precious time and energy trying to save the whole damn world. If you try the former you may be successful. If you instead, spend your time, resources and energy in trying to save the whole world, you stand no chance of being successful.

Ron Patterson

I didn't say I wanted to save the world...just try to change people's minds about sustained growth, peak oil, etc....little bit at a time.

If all our little efforts snowballed some day into a greater awareness...then perhaps it could save some parts of the world.

I read your comments as you not even wanting to try to change people's mindsets.

The problem is, while MLK and Cindy Sheehan and all of those people are great and noble, they really did not do anything about our overshoot situation.

The only religious or political movements I can think of that have done anything about that are the quakers (although they took it too far and died out!) and Planned Parenthood.

Someone somewhere on one of these forums said something like: Drive your SUV and live in a mcMansion and live on McDonald's burgers and if you only have ONE KID you'll have done your part.

One kid per family and "it takes a village to raise a child" social structure, instead of the alienating "nuclear" family, would solve both overpopulation and the "little prince/little princess" syndrome China's 1-child policy created.

OK what am I getting to? Humans in our Western/world culture have not, and will not, change their behavior voluntarily to consume less. Our culture, and it's the world culture now because anyone who tries to abstain from joining is just slaughtered now, is a horrible monster composed of billions of smaller horrible monsters - us. So when people here talk like they can't change people's thinking, it's because they've studied how people, even nice "Liberal" organic-food-eating people, act in the real world.

The break-even reproduction rate is 2.1 children per family. IMO 2 kids per family is a much better rule of thumb: both for the society - preventing a total population collapse with the retirement and healthcare problems coming from it; and for the kids themselves - a brother or sister always helps the child to socialize better, makes it easier to learn to take care and be responsibile to the others, etc.
I'm being picky, but the 2.1 'replacement' fertility rate is a general rule of thumb for first world countries. Obviously in countries with a high infant-to-teenage mortality rate, a family would have to have many more than 2.1 children to effectively replace themselves on the long term.

BTW the US TFR for 2006 is 2.09, slightly below this replacement level, not in positive territory as some on an earlier thread asserted.

The only religious or political movements I can think of that have done anything about that are the quakers (although they took it too far and died out!) and Planned Parenthood.

Marvin Harris argued that the only technological innovation that really helped mankind was birth control.

Agreed
Darwinian said,
"People who really believe they, via their efforts, can change the world are both amusing and pitiful. They are one of six and one half billion people. And that is about how much they affect the world as a whole."

yeah, go to that to Felix Kramer...heh, heh, heh.

The truth is that "one person" may not get credit for his or her efforts, but that does not mean the efforts cannot have huge impact.  Aren't you folks fans of "Chaos" theory, or the "butterfly effect"?  I know from the "global warming" yick yack I hear here that at least some of you believe in feedback loops.

I was recently rereading some of my material by James Burke on "Connections", the award winning series on PBS and companion book.

He points out that repeatedly throughout history, seemingly unrelated events and discoveries have been incorporated with other seemingly unrelated events, sometimes across widely diverging industries and interests, to lead to a breakthrough that was totally unexpected and unprecedented.

Interestingly, this occurred in prior centuries, when communication of events and occurrences were far more difficult than today.  Radio and television and mass publication of scientific and technical journals speeded up the process.

But nothing has been as great an accelerator as the internet.  I now have access to technical papers, drawings, groups and associations that only a few years ago I had to dig through mountains of files at the library to have a hope of finding.  I am now able to find, incorporate or dismiss ideas and lines of inquiry and move rapidly forward to a new set of inquiry, in a fraction of the time needed before, and without burning a drop of gas to get to the libraries.

And I am still a clumsy amateur compared to the ones who are really "hooked up" and know how to use the system.

But all this requires one thing:  WILL.  I have to be willing to learn, to look, and to use what I have learned.  Sadly, this is what we are teaching our children "does not make a difference", and has no effect.  And of course, that's a self fulfilling prophecy, because if we do not use it, sure enough, it will have no effect.  It is, bluntly, defeatism, and has no basis in history or in fact.  But make no mistake:  Just because our culture refuses to make the efforts, do not assume that others will be so defeatist, nihilistic and lazy.

Our culture may indeed endure the great collapse, the big dieoff.  Others may not surrender to it so gladly.  If we do, it may very well be much more a matter of choice, than of inevitability.

There is one thing I know as fact:  If I let the people who tell me "it will make no difference" cause me to stop my efforts, then sure enough, they will have been right.  My efforts abandoned will make no difference.

(as a brief personal aside....you guys have reeeeally got to learn how to enjoy a holiday, cheer up a little....maybe I am just lucky, my sister cooks a mean Thanksgiving dinner...;-), ah well, "the doomed shall eat a hardy meal."

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Just curious Roger, if you could do something, what would you do? I do not mean what would you do if you had magical powers, or if you were god.

Knowing that we are deep into overshoot, what would you do to remedy that situation? What would you do to make the misery a little less for future generations?

Ron Patterson


Darwinian, you ask a tough question...
"Knowing that we are deep into overshoot, what would you do to remedy that situation? What would you do to make the misery a little less for future generations?"

Oh dear.  Well, I could avoid any possible controversy here, and just say something nice like "be a good little scout, conserve fuel, turn down the thermostat, etc, and baby out of it, or I could play it straight and give you an honest answer, even though if anyone is still reading this particular string, I may get chopped up a bit.  The good part, since posting here is a hobby and not a paying job, I can play it straight and give you my honest answer, with no real penelty, that's one of the reasons I like kickin' ideas around here, :-), so here goes:

First, to the sentance, "Knowing that we are deep into overshoot...", I have to ask, how can I possibly know that?  I want it noted that I am not saying it's not true.  But frankly, I could have no way to know.  We could be deep in overshoot, or very far from it.  What is the "carrying capacity of Earth, and is not structured by the way we live, the amount we consume and waste for now noticable gain except ritual, appearance and habit?
  My contention is that we are almost certainly deep in overshoot IF we intend to go on operating the way we do.  But I do not know that we (meaning the human race) will continue to engage in the incredibly wasteful, sloppy and over consumptive design and engineering we have in this century.  I like to think not, not becuase we want to be less "comfortable" (hard term to define there, too!),  but because much of the waste can be removed with not a decline in real living standard, but an increase in all around comfort, sustainability and security.  My contention is that we are not in this fix because our technology is "advanced" but because it is so very primitive.  That does not yet answer your question, but it structures what I am about to say to some extent.

Now, to your question:
If I could do anything first to "make the misery a little less for future generations?", what?

First, I would free the last slaves.  Worldwide, the last stats I looked at, that would mean freeing in a REAL way about half the world population.  The women.  In every culture that has truly allowed it's women to be free, to choose their own livestyle, to work and to be educated, birth rates have fallen like a stone.  Even if we ignored the atrocities committed against the women of the world (and how do the major faiths of the world do that, by the way?), and even if we forced ourselves not to think about the millions of potential scientists, engineers, designers, biologists, medical doctors, city planners, horticulturists...well, I could go on all day, even if we don't think about the horrible loss of talant the world endures by not even letting them into the game, the decline in birthrate, done not by force of "population control" but by alllowing freedom and dignity would make it worth it, plus, it would be the humane, moral thing to do.

Now, there we would be with a flattening population, and a new vast pool of talant (think about the situation now...what we have is billions of female mouths to feed, unless we want to let them starve, but no use of their talant, what a crappy break!), so what to do next.  

Decentralization.  Develop alternatives with that as the first goal.  Great misery is already here, whether peak is or not, whether overshoot is or not, due to concentration of power, knowledge, wealth, and yes, energy.  The middle east bloodbath is creating a crisis of conscious for the Americans, and a hell on earth for the people there, because of concentration.  Of knowledge.  Of wealth.  Of power.  Of energy.  Decentralized systems are redundent, democratic, and bring power and wealth.  With freedom of movement (which, as much as many hate to admit it, is one of the great reducers of misery worldwide) one can move freely from one system or culture to another if conditions become unbearable.  The only thing that will keep a system humane is if it is surrounded by competing humane systems. Technically, this is why, in the long run, it is perfectly fine to lose "perfect" maximization" of efficiency IF it reduces centralization.  If I can make energy locally, without shipping imputs and outputs all over the place, I gain.  I would gladly take a solar set making power and possibly hydrogen locally, without having to carry in daily raw materials, and then trying to carry out daily waste, even if it was not of the most maximum efficiency.  

Likewise knowledge.  The destruction of our education base has been horrendous over the last twenty years or so.  If we want to reduce the suffering of the human race, we must educate.  As Thomas Merton once said "If you teach a human being he is nothing but a gorilla with a gun, he will act exactly like a gorilla with a gun."  If you teach a child, however, that they are designers, artists, creators, involved very much in the creative process, you will get creators, not destroyers.  If we teach them that they are directly responsible for the way in which they use the knowledge they gain, and teach responsibility with learning, we can reduce the misdirected use of knowledge, science, and technology.  Can we do away with it completely?  Probably not, but you only asked to make "misery a little less", not to end completely.  As you said, we are trying to be magical, or God.

Lastly, but perhaps as importantly as all the others, I would not try to destroy HOPE.  I know, the last consolation in Pandora's box, for little kids, right?  But I have learned more each year that even grown ups need HOPE, need a reason to care, need a reason to believe that we are here to do more good than evil.  I saw a man on 60 Minutes the other night who was fighting to preserve tigers in India.  It is an uphill fight, and in the greater scheme of things, what did it matter?  The world can live, in the end, without tigers.  We live without Sabre tooth tigers, right?  When asked why he was doing this, he said simply "because if the tigers are gone, I do not want to be alive."  He had set his standard, and he placed hope in his ability to at least help, in some small way, to keep the world worth living in.  We know there are men and women who have died going into space.  They believed that by helping humans reach outward, they were making the world more worth living in.  Were they foolish, is the whole attempt to reach outward and upward pointless.  We each have to decide for ourselves how we feel about that.  But they had made their choice.  And in some cases they died.  But we all will die.  They had at least believed, held hope, and so they had lived before they died.
So if I cannot make things better, the least I can do is not destroy the hope of those who think they can.  "First, do no harm" says the oath.

On a more down to Earth note, I will have a reply to another post on here tonight, playing with the research I have done today on thin film solar.  I used to laugh at PV as "pie in the sky" even though I had a Bell Labs PV kit when I was a child, to build a little photo cell to prove it would work!  Now, it is coming back, but not the silicone ones, but the CIS thin film....this is going to be so much fun to watch develop and knock everyone's hat in the creek!
Have fun, that's one more thing that will reduce misery, and make friends and lovers, that's good too, and watch comedy....(as the alien told Woody Allen in one of his early films, "you want to make the world a better place, tell funnier jokes!")....you see, we know how to do this, as Grandma Moses, the old lady painter said when she was over 100 years old, "Life is what you make it...always has been, always will be."  Hey, if she could take it to 100, she must have known something! :-)

All kidding aside, thank you for the chance to work out some of my own demons and give myself a booster shoot, I needed it actually!  I may be taking a bit of a sabbatical from posting on TOD, so I might as well go off for a while on a high note....I think I need to get out in the field and do more and talk less...:-)  (was that what you were trying to hint in your question?  either way, don't agree too fast, o.k.!)

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout


opps, made several errors in my longish reply, but only one that changed the context of what I aimed to say...sentence should read,
"As you said, we are NOT trying to be magical, or God.

I left out the "not".  Sorry.  RC known to you as ThatsItImout

First, I would free the last slaves.  Worldwide, the last stats I looked at, that would mean freeing in a REAL way about half the world population.  The women.  

I am very afraid that the opposite will happen.  

Women tend to have a lot of rights and freedom in foraging societies, much less so in more complex societies...with the exception of our own, and then only very recently.  

Why is this?  I think it's because control of females is control of fertility.  The number of fertile females in a society determines the fertility rate.  Thinking of women as inferior makes practices like female infanticide more acceptable.  Subjugation of women = population control.

So the reason our birth rates have fallen is not just education and women's rights, but birth control.  It's not enough to educate women. And it's not enough to offer birth control.  You must do both.  You also have to provide health care, food, and political stability, so parents can be sure the children they do have will survive.

I fear that our progress on this front is far more likely to unwind in the face of peak oil than to continue or increase. I'm reminded of Yasser Arafat, who asked Palestinian women to have 12 children, 10 for themselves, and two for his army.

In the face of this exhortation, West Bank TFR has dropped from around 4.9 in 2001 to 4.3 in 2006. You will see a similar drop in virtually every country on the planet, even the poorest with the highest 'ambient' TFR are dropping. I don't think this can be attributed to education or birth-control availability or cultural norms.
There are several factors behind the so-called "population bust."  Empowerment of women and availability of birth control are among them.  So is health care/sanitation that decreases infant mortality, and urbanization.  (Children are necessary free labor on the farm, but just extra mouths to feed in a crowded city apartment.)

Unfortunately, I don't see any of these factors improving in the post-carbon age.  Quite the opposite, in fact.

None of these factors are evident completely across all cultural and socio-economic boundaries, especially empowerment of women and availability of birth conrol. These may be enabling factors, but I think the universal trand toward smaller families has more basic reasons behind it.

I also don't see the trend reversing in the post-carbon age. I see it accelerating as the world gets even more crowded and less wealthy. This is the trend now and has been roughly since the late 80's when we passed the peak of per-capita availability of energy (wealth).

None of these factors are evident completely across all cultural and socio-economic boundaries, especially empowerment of women and availability of birth conrol.

I think they're more universal than you think.  In particular, they are among the things family planning programs emphasize.  

My main disagreement is with the notion that education, say, is a causative factor in fertility rate decline rather than an 'enabling' one. Take the example of the Mexican immigrant TFR. (shooting from the hip here 'cause I don't have data at hand) I would assume the Mexican immigrant first generation TFR to be somewhat higher than Mexico's 2.4, since it skews US TFR fairly significantly. It would be reasonable to expect that the first generation Mexican immigrant has better educational and health-care opportunities than before immigration, yet TFR goes up (possibly sharply) from its baseline in Mexico. This conjecture, if true, would be a counter example.

Actually, my main disagreement is with classical 'Benign Demographic Transition' which I think gets far too many things wrong, and for which there are too many counter-examples. Seems to me that increased wealth, or perception of opportunity to increase wealth is going to lead to increased TFR. The definition of wealth broad enough to include access to territory (witness Rwanda's uptick in TFR after the 1990's genocide, lots of available land), as well as increased general economic opportunities.

I'm not sure about the numbers in the specific example you give, but in general, it's something that has long been noted by family planning groups.  There's a lag.  When you first give better economic opportunity, health care, etc., to people, the fertility rate goes up at first.  Eventually, it will go down, but not right away.

If you think about it, it makes sense.  People don't change their behavior/culture right away.  It takes awhile for them to realize that they don't need ten kids any more, because the ones they have will survive.

What makes sense to me are a couple of things:
  1. Comparing demographics within a culture along a timeline and correlating with economic and social changes, rather than comparing across cultures at the same point in time.
  2. In general, #1 leads to data that supports the notion that TFR correlates positively with especially economic factors, i.e. good times mean rising TFR, bad times means declining TFR. Various social changes play an important part as well e.g. the overthrow of Battista in Cuba correlated with a rise in TFR, same with Nassar kicking out the British in Egypt. Also, leveling off of median income around 1970 in the US correlated with a drop and leveling of TFR after the 'baby boom' of the optimistic growth years of post WWII.

'If you think about it, it makes sense.' .... that good times, including more wealth, leads to more children, bad times to fewer. A perhaps overly simplistic rendition of the Benign Demographic Transition theory would have families getting bigger in a given cultural context as median income declines and people get poorer. Lots of data does not support this scenario, neither IMO, does 'common sense.' This is why I think it unlikely that families will get bigger as the overall wealth availability declines. I think the decline in global TFR is already a clear sign of the opposite happening.
Don't forget Social Security.  As long as it lasts, it removes another rational economic incentive to have more children.  Presumably if the world's Social Security systems all go broke from demographics or corrupt privatization schemes, in a couple of generations lower income couples will start having more children again.
Yes, that is definitely another factor to consider.  
I know what you're talking about and it's true. Have you heard of the Gaia hypothesys?
People who really believe they, via their efforts, can change the world are both amusing and pitiful. They are one of six and one half billion people. And that is about how much they affect the world as a whole.

Many excellent responses to this already.  I'd also note one slight of hand "They are one of six and one half billion people."

How many movements in the world are truly one guy?  Or how many have a group, and a bit more leverage?

LOL.  If Alan were the only guy in the whole wide world who liked these things called "tains" he might have a hard time getting anyone to listen.  It's true.  OTOH, if he is joining a network ...