The Oil Drum: Europe | The forecasting record of CERA and other commentators

75 comments on The forecasting record of CERA and other commentators

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noutram on December 13, 2006 - 2:24pm

Hi Khebab (and the group -this is one of the best researched sites I have found, the depth of some of these analysis is breathtaking),

Some financials.

If this loglet curve is accurate then before 2010 Gordon Brown -the new PM- will have a budget gap of:

=((Use - Production) * No. of days in a year * per barrel price) / $ to £ ratio
=((1,750,000-750,000) * 365 * 60 ) / 2
=approx -£11 Billion / year (Logistics curve gives approx -£3B)

That's a big difference (Cost of current usage is around £20B)

As Oil gets scarcer / more expensive importer countries will increasingly have to devote more and more of their budgets to these increasingly expensive oil imports. If the rest of the economy is unable to make up the difference (and bear in mind the UK is highly service / finance dependant -something that is likely to be badly hit) this will lead to severe hard times.

I went shopping for Christmas gifts at the local Mall the other day -people where spending like there is no tomorrow -and they're right!!

Regards, Nick.

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