Reserves will be part II later, and glad to see you freely admit that the USGS blew it on estimated discoveries.  What do your studies indicate for potential discoveries going forward in barrels/day, geo-areas, and on-stream production times?  How much do you differ from the USGS and CERA in discoveries only please?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Please remember the realities of Reserve Growth.

Yes of course. Geologists have been trying for decades to explain this strange phenomenon. It was noticed almost a century ago that after the first well penetrates a reservoir, the reservoir begins to grow. At first everyone thought it might have been "oil multiplying bacteria" causing the reserve to grow. It was thought that the drilling bit caused the bacterial contamination.

Then other theories were put forth. Some thought that relieving the pressure in the well caused oil to push up from below, filling the spaces left by the oil pumped out.

But then a few years ago someone threw a monkey wrench in the works. Shell pointed out that occasionally reservoirs shrink instead of growing. Their reserves shrank, in a single year, by 20 percent. And it is rumored that Kuwait's reserves have shrunk by 50 percent. And there is fear throughout the Middle East that reserves in that area are about to shrink by at least 50 percent, perhaps by as much as 65 percent.

But the reasons why reserves sometimes grow and sometimes shrink is still one of the greatest mysteries of geology.

Ron Patterson

I agree that there is some excess capacity, but where did you get the 2 mbd number? I have guessed at 1 or 2 mbpd, but that is based on extrapolations from areas that I know have excess capacity.

What I'll bet you is that "the optimists" get completely wrong footed by believing reserves growth will go on for ever - because of course when you start from a position of understatement - either by accident or by design, and grow your reserves annualy on the back of this, you do eventually reach a point where stated reserves equal actual - and any further increases become unwarranted.

I'm hoping to persuade some of our new contributors here to look at the reserves growth history of the 5 super majors - was wondering if you might already have done that?

I agree with you about current over supply, soft demand and peak lying in the future - but the more I look, the harder I find it to see growing production beyond 15 Nov 2011.