Assuming MH is right - I second this interpretation of CERA's report.

I wonder if someone can give a good explanation of how it is possible for a spot market to respond to long term trends? Is it not the oil in storage - ready for delivery that matters more than actual flow rates in such a market? Are the demands of margin trading, risk of a margin call and a need to keep trading volumes high (because each trade has a small profit) not contrary to adapting to long term trends/risks?
For more explanation see the link abstract for ASPO 2005 above.

All the points you make for the risk in long-term contracts are there but you might think of this as the Chinese Approach to oil. Lock up contracts for in-ground oil now using futures because most traders, unlike nations, cannot can make direct contracts with the producing countries.