The issue this raises with me is if we are at peak right now, is it a possibility that the world will be able to stretch the so-called "bumpy plateau" until, let's say, 2012?

I was enjoying the good life in Venice when this story was posted, and I think I made one short comment when I signed on briefly in Venice, while my my wife was checking her e-mails at an Internet site.

IMO, insufficient attention was given to the decline of the super giants, which is also my beef with the Mega Projects analysis.

Again, let's consider Texas.  The East Texas Field, which was found around 1930, was showing rising production in the 10 years prior to the Texas peak in 1972.  How would a "Mega Projects" analysis of Texas in the early Seventies treated the East Texas Field?  

In fact, Hubbert, as we know, correctly predicted the time frame for the overall Lower 48 peak.  As I noted on the Simmons thread, Deffeyes has considerably better data to work with than Hubbert had in 1956.  IMO, the HL model, combined the near certain simultaneous decline of all four current super giants, is an overwhelming case for "Yes, we have peaked."