The dollar tends to strengthen prior to a recession.  Technical factors and trader's commitments are both pointing to a stronger dollar.  The media is falling all over itself talking about a dollar collapse.  Finally, while the dollar has recently declined a bit based on growing recognition of a U.S. slowdown, other currencies (for example, the Euro)have yet to see this effect.  As soon as people realize that other countries economies will also slow as a result of the U.S. slowing, this situation will correct.  

The U.S. dollar index recently dipped below 82.50.  Today it closed at 84.06.  I think it will approach 90 in the coming half-year or so.