And if you use the EIA t14 spreadsheet, peak oil was May 2005...1 year and 7 months ago, at 85,205 thousand barrels per day.  

So, the one year birthday party is a little late.  :-)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls

"Oil Supply" is defined as the production of crude oil (including lease condensate), natural gas plant liquids, and other liquids, and refinery processing gain (loss).

Rick

Deffeyes uses crude + condensate.  His Dec. 16, 2005 prediction is based on C+C, and he's not wrong yet.
If Deffeyes turns out to be right and he picked accurately the exact MONTH oil would peak, he'll go down in history as one of the most famous scientists ever.  It's pretty impressive that he's been right as long as he has.  I'm still in the 2012 camp, but still...
And if you wished to break the energy(just what we take from the ground and is not replenishable) down into various segments then you might be able to make differing predictions for each.

The May 2005 date refers to ALL LIQUIDS and I consider that more of value, since as was stated , we are in a ENERGY crisis and not just an oil crisis. I would remove the ethanol however since it surely upsets the reckoning by being so variable in nature. (ethanol being replenishable and not in the FF category)

So what is to be used as the leading indicator of PO? C+C ,all liquids or something else? Or does it matter?  

We are NOT in an energy crisis.  We can produce/harness energy from literally thousands of different methods.  Enough light energy falls on the American south west to provide all the energy the world needs.  We are in a petrol 'crisis', nothing more, nothing less.  We need to reconnect our energy needs with electricity and move away from the 'potential' energy stored in Oil.

Look at the article I linked further down to show you how we can cut our oil use in half.

Peak Oil does not scare me, as there are dozens of alternatives.  Peak Energy scares me, but fortunately that wont happen for at least another 5 billion years.

Enough light energy falls on the American south west to provide all the energy the world needs.

EXACTLY!
And in case we need a backup, enough light falls on the moon too.
If OTOH we would prefer for futile reasons to stick to hydrocarbons there is no shortage of methane on Jupiter, we "just need" to manage to send back the CO2 over there...

Hothgor,

You are the most uninformed poster I have ran across in all the websites and forums I visit for these many years and even back unto the days of BBs. Back even unto Compuserve. Back even to chiseled stone tablets passed around the campfires.Back I am sure to grunt language yelled from the trees. Back before Adam could speak and Eve lifted her loincloth, there must have been someone like Hothgor (perhaps serpentinelike) telling a pack of lies and BS.  

Your ignorance and communication skills are a waste of human flesh.

You post balderdash and try to pretend its a fount of knowledge when its just your lame efforts at googling.

I remember someone on another forum saying once that she confronted a really ignorant poster like this only to find out the person was only 13 years old.

But of course a lot of 13 year olds have more intelligence and common sense than Hothgor.

Instead of criticizing me, why don't you prove to the entire world how my statement isn't correct.

Is there, in fact, not enough 'sun' power in the American South West to provide the entire worlds power needs?  If there is not then I am wrong.

Unfortunately for you, I am right :)

Hothgor: Since everything has a price, you should include a dollar cost analysis for your project. Affordable energy is relevant, not theoretically achieveable energy of all types.  
Oh of course hothgor you are 100 % correct...just show us the solar cell that will cover the grand canyon- I'm sure there is one out there in lala land.  We can use the solar energy it creates to drive the electric trucks that will set up the solar panel that will cover all of New Mexico.  You must have it here somewhere in your bag of BS.

PS The illegal aliens will be very grateful because they can sneak in under it...  (Mucho Gracias senior Hothgor, mi senora y mi chicitas le gusta sol panel mucho, por favor)

I didn't know the space men spoke Spanish ~_~
by illegal aliens he means people, humans mostly, that cross the border between the united states and Mexico. though alien visitors from space could also be classified as illegal aliens.
Yes I'm well aware of that...

Jokes are apparently never understood here...

Instead of criticizing me, why don't you prove to the entire world how my statement isn't correct.

Your statement about energy is wrong.  

The energy is not the threat.   The economic system that is used to highly discounted energy costs has many actors who will react poorly to the end of cheap energy.

That is how you are wrong.

Feel free to disprove "to the world".

Hothgor is not wrong. His statements are about potential energy availablity, which from the sun is indeed enormous. A rather surprising calculation reveals that the Earth intercepts in one day more than 30 times that the world uses in one year.

I know that getting a significant part of this energy into usable form presents great challenges. Still, I believe it to be within the capabilities of humans to achieve, were we to decide that this was an important goal. It is this thought that encourages me and keeps me from complete despair.

Eric, I believe that your statement is correct also, and stated very concisely. But it is a statement about human nature, not science. There is much evidence to support this point of view when past and present human behavior is examined.

I guess that for me, I am not sure just how poorly or well that human actors will react. I have my fears about this, and maybe the odds are not good. But it is good to know that there are technical solutions that we could work towards, collectively, if we turn out to be smart enough.

Tony Verbalis  

Please keep in mind, though, that it's not quite that simple. For starters, most of that energy falls on the deep oceans, and more falls onto clouds, and all of it is pretty spread out and diffuse.

Getting from a large reservoir to produced energy available for purchase is not always easy. For example, there's also an utterly staggering amount of potential energy in the form of deuterium in the oceans, but at the current ridiculously stingy worldwide research budget of $1 billion or so a year, which goes mostly into safety paperwork and the like, not into productive research activity, that potential energy will never be put to use either.

I know that it is not simple. Technically, it would require a well planned, major effort over a long period of time. Starting now, while we still have some existing sources of fossil and nuclear energy to get it going.

But, the technology already exists, and can be improved incrementally in the process of actually using it. This is unlike your analogy to deuterium. Nuclear fusion hasn't yet produced a single joule of useful energy. There has been no demonstration that it can even produce a net energy gain, even  under laboratory conditions. Whether it ever will is at least debateable.

What are you people worried about?  Energy is neither created nor destroyed.  Therefore, all the energy we have ever used still exists.  We just have to collect it.  When the price gets high enough, we will.  
All I want for Christmas is a "Mr. Fusion". Santa - make mine a 2.3 gigawatt.  I have some bannana peals for fuel and cookies for you and the reindeer.  :)
all the energy we have ever used still exists.  We just have to collect it.

The energy we used is somewhere out there-->. Traveling away from us at the speed of infrared light. All we need is a rocket fast enough ...

Just in case you were serious about this comment, you might be interested in learning about the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics (entropy). Yes, all the energy is still around someplace, but it has been degraded into heat. It is very difficult to get work from heat. It can be done only if temperature differences exist (steam engine, etc).

Since temperatures tend to equilibrate, temperature differences disappear, and the universe suffers a "heat death". The sun kind of keeps that from happening to us, but in about 5 billion years ......

His statements are about potential energy availablity, which from the sun is indeed enormous.

And with no cheap way to do that (cheap as in the same price the economy is used to having) declaring 'there is all this energy just  waiting for us' might be salve for some people's soul, but is mostly useless.

But it is a statement about human nature, not science.

It will be the reaction of others that are far more vexing.  

The economic system and level of goods based on the cheap oil coming to an end isn't going to be an easy sell.

But it is good to know that there are technical solutions that we could work towards,

But these are FAR more expensive than the present system.   And without figuring out how to re-adjust the political-economic system, all the technical solutions won't matter.

Yes, energy from these sources will be far more expensive, and   yes, it isn't going to be an easy sell. And yes, it would seem that some re-adjustment of the political-economic system will be essential to pull it off. But, to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, we have to start with the political-economic system we already have.

But the evolution of humans from our starting point some 100,000 years ago to our present global civilization has at least demonstrated the ability to adapt to new conditions. Can we adapt to these new conditions? Just maybe.

Very perceptive comments, particulary in so far as you realize the human race will have to go extinct or at least kiss goodbye to industrial civilization because it can't overthrow capitalism, rather than from adherence to some general natural law.

Very perceptive. The entire system is wedded to cheap energy. Stress cheap. No cheap energy, no system. Even if we get expensive energy, it doesn't work any more. Kiss goodbye to cheap energy, and perhaps, necessarily, you kiss goodbye to progressive politics.

I stress perhaps. But you are right and your point cannot be stressed enough: we will suffer because the system requires cheap energy. Technical solutions will not be enough in the short term, because in the short term it is the political and economic interests connected with capitalism that will matter most - technical solutions be damned. 'F*** solar, I've got Shell stock!' 'A contracting economy? Like I'll employ anyone with that!' And so on.

Repeat: we will suffer, not necessarily because of technical limitations, but because of the political and economic structure under which we live.

The present system won't make it.  

If one wishes to think the present system is capitalism or not, well now we are into 'how many spirits of Adam Smith can dance on the head of the pin'.

You see Hothgor the error you make?

You make an absurd statement and when called on it you reply that the other party must prove your statement is wrong?

Just how far has this approach taken you in the internet forums and discussion groups?

Do you actually get by with this type of activity elsewhere?

Teenybopper chat rooms do not count.

There was this one poster on the Energyresources yahoo group that reminds me very much of Hothgar - Mauk Mcamuk. Very persistent in his views that technology can solve everything and almost oblivious to criticism he received while arguing with members who were experts in their field.
My 'absurd' statement was based on the equally 'absurd' flame fest that took place after I posted my original comment.  No one yet has proved what I said to be wrong.  But I think your more interesting in spinning the argument to allow you to save face then fessing up to the fact that we aren't in an Energy Crisis at all, only an oil crisis.
Flaming Hothgor does nothing for the conversation or the rep of this site.  If his comments are tweaking you, use that as practise not to rise to the urge of snipping like middle-schoolers.

I am as Pro Solar-Wind-Tide and like alternates as anyone, yet I also see a serious energy shortfall if the tools to harness these sources aren't largely built out while we still have the fossil fuels to do it 'on the faster side'.  Of course, that leaves people to start arguing about when again..  forget when and think about how and where to get some balls rolling.  Pick a BB and run with it.  (What a lame image that makes.. but we really do have to make the 'Mighty BB Bearers' into our new Heroes and Heralds)

I do think we are on some very thin ice, so even if other people still think we're on solid ground, I'll be lacing up my life preserver, and hoping it'll float two or three of us.

Hothgor is, in broad terms, correct.  That we have not yet built the technology to actually run the world off the sunlight striking a small fraction of the American southwest makes it unhelpful, but that doesn't make him wrong.

The helpful part of statements like Hothgor's is that it tells us where we should be looking for solutions.  Sutton's Law and all that.  "Sustainability" came from a somewhat more detailed exercise of Sutton's Law.

"Enough light energy falls on the American south west to provide all the energy the world needs. "

I think I'll just go down there and SPREAD MY LEAVES and collect me some power.

BTW, I'm so glad to hear you're not preparing.

OK, folks, there's no ideal place to attach this, but these flame wars aren't overly educational, and they're surely off-putting to the press reporters and other outside readers we know are starting to come here.

Let's try some numbers instead, WRT "Enough light energy falls on the American south west to provide all the energy the world needs."

World energy consumption - at least that which is accounted for - around 10-12TW. Sunlight at surface 1050 W/square meter. Area about 10000-12000 square kilometers. So my crude ballpark-o-meter says, yes, the proposition is "theoretically" true.

Of course, it's fairly simplistic theory. That area is for high noon, facing directly on, with 100% areal coverage, and no clouds or haze anywhere in sight. So if I'm going to trust my life to this thing, I need to recalibrate my  ballpark-o-meter.

It's not always high noon, so multiply the area by pi over two or about 1.57. (We aren't going to be building 10000 square km of complicated, expensive, moving structures anytime soon. Not in anything but some nightmare.) And night eventually comes (see The Dying Night by Isaac Asimov), so multiply by 2. And sometimes it's cloudy or hazy even in the desert, and collector surfaces gather dust and mineral deposits. So multiply by 2 again. And we don't really get 100% efficiency out of any known large-scale system (and precious few lab systems either for that matter.) Let's be really super optimistic, and also ignore conversion-transmission-conversion losses, and call it 40% - for the outdoor system - not just the lab version of the individual solar cells or other elements. So multiply by another 2.5. And the days are short in the winter, and sunlight gets weak near dawn and dusk, and surfaces will reflect more away at shallow angles, so multiply by another 1.3 (SWAG).

So we multiply the area by 20. We need 200000-240000 square km of collector surface.

Now, the Southwest is not on the equator, and it's sometimes winter, so multiply the land area by the secant of the sum of some reasonable latitude and the earth-axis tilt of 23 degrees, yielding, say, 1.4. And we don't want our fiendishly expensive collectors shadowing each other too much when it's not high noon, and the environmentalists won't let us have 100% areal coverage anyhow. So multiply the land area by another 2, except that's almost certainly too low and should probably be closer to 4. So we need somewhere on the order of 700000-1000000 square km of land, rooftops, and whatever.

At the very minimum, this is a monumental project involving technology that does not quite exist yet, and given that scope, deadlines are growing short. It probably can't be done at all without substantially disempowering NIMBYs and BANANAs, so it may prove impossible under "democracy". Of course it's not really going to be concentrated in one spot - the European concept of a huge project in the Sahara connected  up with an undersea cable or three is a highly vulnerable epitome of geopolitical and strategic stupidity - but most spots will have more bad weather and less sun in winter than the US southwest. In addition, many rooftops and such in many inhabited areas are shadowed by trees for much or all of the year, an inconvenience to which our southern Californian contributors often seem utterly oblivious.

BTW, yeah, I know. There are efficiency gains to be had, Engineer-Poet wrote about that the other day. On the other hand, population is still exploding, as are economic expectations in poor countries. So at this level of analysis, I'm saying that's roughly a wash over the next few decades. At best.

P.S. one other dose of reality - even if there were thousands of energy-harvesting and/or energy-producing methods, it's highly likely that less than a dozen will account for nearly all of the net production.

Prize-winning.
I like C+C better than all liquids, for the reasons that have been posted numerous times before.  Ethanol is not subject to Hubbert linearization.  All liquids has some double-counting, and includes liquids like orimulsion.

But really, the notable thing about Deffeyes is that he gave an exact date.  Not a year, not a month, but a day.  That's what makes it possible to have a "birthday."  :)

So what is to be used as the leading indicator of PO? C+C ,all liquids or something else? Or does it matter?

Does it matter? Hell, it all depends on what you are talking about. Horse manure matters if you are talking about fertilizer. Deffeyes was predicting the peak of crude oil. And since the EIA lumps crude in with condensate, he just used their numbers. And this is probably wise since the condensate is just dumped in with the crude and actually increases its quality.

True, there will be a different peak for natural gas and/or natural gas liquids. This peak will happen at different times in different countries. It will be near impossible to pinpoint the exact peak of world-wide natural natural gas. Natural gas liquids peak may be a little easier to pinpoint.

But peak oil is all about peak oil, not about peak bottled gas. Deffeyes predicted the peak of crude oil to be December of 2005. And so far he is exactly correct!

Ron Patterson

Note that the Russian government reports that domestic consumption is growing at two and a half times the rate that production was increasing.  (IMO, Russia will start showing lower production late this year, or early next year.)  In any case, the Russian government is reporting lower exports.  

What is striking is how many times the HL method has so far been right regarding the Export Land Model and for large producing regions--Lower 48; Texas;  Russia; North Sea; Mexico; Saudi Arabia and the world--while so many people reject the method, even as the production declines worldwide and in Saudi Arabia are exactly what the HL models predicted.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20061215/56982973.html

Russian oil output up 2.2%, export down 0.5% in 10M06

MOSCOW, December 15 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's oil production increased 2.2% in the first 10 months of 2006, year-on-year, to 398.8 million metric tons (9.58 mln bbl/d), and exports fell 0.5%, to 207.7 million metric tons (4.99 mln bbl/d), the Federal Statistics Service said Friday.

 Oil sales on the domestic market rose 5.4% in the reporting period, to 180.9 million tons (4.35 mln bbl/d).

 Oil accounted for 35.2% of Russia's exports and 52.7% of the country's fuel and energy exports in the first 10 months of 2006 compared with 34.8% and 54.4%, respectively, in the same period of 2005.

 The average export oil price was $392.3 per metric ton, down 8.6%, month-on-month, and the world price of Russia's Urals crude was $402.4 per metric ton, down 6.5%, month-on month.