203 comments on DrumBeat: December 16, 2006
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203 comments on DrumBeat: December 16, 2006
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GAIA Host Collective
So, the one year birthday party is a little late. :-)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls
"Oil Supply" is defined as the production of crude oil (including lease condensate), natural gas plant liquids, and other liquids, and refinery processing gain (loss).
Rick
The May 2005 date refers to ALL LIQUIDS and I consider that more of value, since as was stated , we are in a ENERGY crisis and not just an oil crisis. I would remove the ethanol however since it surely upsets the reckoning by being so variable in nature. (ethanol being replenishable and not in the FF category)
So what is to be used as the leading indicator of PO? C+C ,all liquids or something else? Or does it matter?
Look at the article I linked further down to show you how we can cut our oil use in half.
Peak Oil does not scare me, as there are dozens of alternatives. Peak Energy scares me, but fortunately that wont happen for at least another 5 billion years.
EXACTLY!
And in case we need a backup, enough light falls on the moon too.
If OTOH we would prefer for futile reasons to stick to hydrocarbons there is no shortage of methane on Jupiter, we "just need" to manage to send back the CO2 over there...
You are the most uninformed poster I have ran across in all the websites and forums I visit for these many years and even back unto the days of BBs. Back even unto Compuserve. Back even to chiseled stone tablets passed around the campfires.Back I am sure to grunt language yelled from the trees. Back before Adam could speak and Eve lifted her loincloth, there must have been someone like Hothgor (perhaps serpentinelike) telling a pack of lies and BS.
Your ignorance and communication skills are a waste of human flesh.
You post balderdash and try to pretend its a fount of knowledge when its just your lame efforts at googling.
But of course a lot of 13 year olds have more intelligence and common sense than Hothgor.
Is there, in fact, not enough 'sun' power in the American South West to provide the entire worlds power needs? If there is not then I am wrong.
Unfortunately for you, I am right :)
PS The illegal aliens will be very grateful because they can sneak in under it... (Mucho Gracias senior Hothgor, mi senora y mi chicitas le gusta sol panel mucho, por favor)
Jokes are apparently never understood here...
Your statement about energy is wrong.
The energy is not the threat. The economic system that is used to highly discounted energy costs has many actors who will react poorly to the end of cheap energy.
That is how you are wrong.
Feel free to disprove "to the world".
I know that getting a significant part of this energy into usable form presents great challenges. Still, I believe it to be within the capabilities of humans to achieve, were we to decide that this was an important goal. It is this thought that encourages me and keeps me from complete despair.
Eric, I believe that your statement is correct also, and stated very concisely. But it is a statement about human nature, not science. There is much evidence to support this point of view when past and present human behavior is examined.
I guess that for me, I am not sure just how poorly or well that human actors will react. I have my fears about this, and maybe the odds are not good. But it is good to know that there are technical solutions that we could work towards, collectively, if we turn out to be smart enough.
Tony Verbalis
Getting from a large reservoir to produced energy available for purchase is not always easy. For example, there's also an utterly staggering amount of potential energy in the form of deuterium in the oceans, but at the current ridiculously stingy worldwide research budget of $1 billion or so a year, which goes mostly into safety paperwork and the like, not into productive research activity, that potential energy will never be put to use either.
But, the technology already exists, and can be improved incrementally in the process of actually using it. This is unlike your analogy to deuterium. Nuclear fusion hasn't yet produced a single joule of useful energy. There has been no demonstration that it can even produce a net energy gain, even under laboratory conditions. Whether it ever will is at least debateable.
The energy we used is somewhere out there-->. Traveling away from us at the speed of infrared light. All we need is a rocket fast enough ...
Since temperatures tend to equilibrate, temperature differences disappear, and the universe suffers a "heat death". The sun kind of keeps that from happening to us, but in about 5 billion years ......
And with no cheap way to do that (cheap as in the same price the economy is used to having) declaring 'there is all this energy just waiting for us' might be salve for some people's soul, but is mostly useless.
But it is a statement about human nature, not science.
It will be the reaction of others that are far more vexing.
The economic system and level of goods based on the cheap oil coming to an end isn't going to be an easy sell.
But it is good to know that there are technical solutions that we could work towards,
But these are FAR more expensive than the present system. And without figuring out how to re-adjust the political-economic system, all the technical solutions won't matter.
But the evolution of humans from our starting point some 100,000 years ago to our present global civilization has at least demonstrated the ability to adapt to new conditions. Can we adapt to these new conditions? Just maybe.
Very perceptive. The entire system is wedded to cheap energy. Stress cheap. No cheap energy, no system. Even if we get expensive energy, it doesn't work any more. Kiss goodbye to cheap energy, and perhaps, necessarily, you kiss goodbye to progressive politics.
I stress perhaps. But you are right and your point cannot be stressed enough: we will suffer because the system requires cheap energy. Technical solutions will not be enough in the short term, because in the short term it is the political and economic interests connected with capitalism that will matter most - technical solutions be damned. 'F*** solar, I've got Shell stock!' 'A contracting economy? Like I'll employ anyone with that!' And so on.
Repeat: we will suffer, not necessarily because of technical limitations, but because of the political and economic structure under which we live.
If one wishes to think the present system is capitalism or not, well now we are into 'how many spirits of Adam Smith can dance on the head of the pin'.
You make an absurd statement and when called on it you reply that the other party must prove your statement is wrong?
Just how far has this approach taken you in the internet forums and discussion groups?
Do you actually get by with this type of activity elsewhere?
Teenybopper chat rooms do not count.
I am as Pro Solar-Wind-Tide and like alternates as anyone, yet I also see a serious energy shortfall if the tools to harness these sources aren't largely built out while we still have the fossil fuels to do it 'on the faster side'. Of course, that leaves people to start arguing about when again.. forget when and think about how and where to get some balls rolling. Pick a BB and run with it. (What a lame image that makes.. but we really do have to make the 'Mighty BB Bearers' into our new Heroes and Heralds)
I do think we are on some very thin ice, so even if other people still think we're on solid ground, I'll be lacing up my life preserver, and hoping it'll float two or three of us.
The helpful part of statements like Hothgor's is that it tells us where we should be looking for solutions. Sutton's Law and all that. "Sustainability" came from a somewhat more detailed exercise of Sutton's Law.
I think I'll just go down there and SPREAD MY LEAVES and collect me some power.
BTW, I'm so glad to hear you're not preparing.
Let's try some numbers instead, WRT "Enough light energy falls on the American south west to provide all the energy the world needs."
World energy consumption - at least that which is accounted for - around 10-12TW. Sunlight at surface 1050 W/square meter. Area about 10000-12000 square kilometers. So my crude ballpark-o-meter says, yes, the proposition is "theoretically" true.
Of course, it's fairly simplistic theory. That area is for high noon, facing directly on, with 100% areal coverage, and no clouds or haze anywhere in sight. So if I'm going to trust my life to this thing, I need to recalibrate my ballpark-o-meter.
It's not always high noon, so multiply the area by pi over two or about 1.57. (We aren't going to be building 10000 square km of complicated, expensive, moving structures anytime soon. Not in anything but some nightmare.) And night eventually comes (see The Dying Night by Isaac Asimov), so multiply by 2. And sometimes it's cloudy or hazy even in the desert, and collector surfaces gather dust and mineral deposits. So multiply by 2 again. And we don't really get 100% efficiency out of any known large-scale system (and precious few lab systems either for that matter.) Let's be really super optimistic, and also ignore conversion-transmission-conversion losses, and call it 40% - for the outdoor system - not just the lab version of the individual solar cells or other elements. So multiply by another 2.5. And the days are short in the winter, and sunlight gets weak near dawn and dusk, and surfaces will reflect more away at shallow angles, so multiply by another 1.3 (SWAG).
So we multiply the area by 20. We need 200000-240000 square km of collector surface.
Now, the Southwest is not on the equator, and it's sometimes winter, so multiply the land area by the secant of the sum of some reasonable latitude and the earth-axis tilt of 23 degrees, yielding, say, 1.4. And we don't want our fiendishly expensive collectors shadowing each other too much when it's not high noon, and the environmentalists won't let us have 100% areal coverage anyhow. So multiply the land area by another 2, except that's almost certainly too low and should probably be closer to 4. So we need somewhere on the order of 700000-1000000 square km of land, rooftops, and whatever.
At the very minimum, this is a monumental project involving technology that does not quite exist yet, and given that scope, deadlines are growing short. It probably can't be done at all without substantially disempowering NIMBYs and BANANAs, so it may prove impossible under "democracy". Of course it's not really going to be concentrated in one spot - the European concept of a huge project in the Sahara connected up with an undersea cable or three is a highly vulnerable epitome of geopolitical and strategic stupidity - but most spots will have more bad weather and less sun in winter than the US southwest. In addition, many rooftops and such in many inhabited areas are shadowed by trees for much or all of the year, an inconvenience to which our southern Californian contributors often seem utterly oblivious.
BTW, yeah, I know. There are efficiency gains to be had, Engineer-Poet wrote about that the other day. On the other hand, population is still exploding, as are economic expectations in poor countries. So at this level of analysis, I'm saying that's roughly a wash over the next few decades. At best.
P.S. one other dose of reality - even if there were thousands of energy-harvesting and/or energy-producing methods, it's highly likely that less than a dozen will account for nearly all of the net production.
But really, the notable thing about Deffeyes is that he gave an exact date. Not a year, not a month, but a day. That's what makes it possible to have a "birthday." :)
Does it matter? Hell, it all depends on what you are talking about. Horse manure matters if you are talking about fertilizer. Deffeyes was predicting the peak of crude oil. And since the EIA lumps crude in with condensate, he just used their numbers. And this is probably wise since the condensate is just dumped in with the crude and actually increases its quality.
True, there will be a different peak for natural gas and/or natural gas liquids. This peak will happen at different times in different countries. It will be near impossible to pinpoint the exact peak of world-wide natural natural gas. Natural gas liquids peak may be a little easier to pinpoint.
But peak oil is all about peak oil, not about peak bottled gas. Deffeyes predicted the peak of crude oil to be December of 2005. And so far he is exactly correct!
Ron Patterson
What is striking is how many times the HL method has so far been right regarding the Export Land Model and for large producing regions--Lower 48; Texas; Russia; North Sea; Mexico; Saudi Arabia and the world--while so many people reject the method, even as the production declines worldwide and in Saudi Arabia are exactly what the HL models predicted.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20061215/56982973.html
Russian oil output up 2.2%, export down 0.5% in 10M06