I've said before that your export model is of course correct. However, all liquids have surged this summer, imo the real reason prices fell.  Whether the summer surge and the recent decline is on account of seasonal ethanol production, I don't know. Regardless, using the recent decline to make your point, given that stocks are still higher than last year or the year previous, is misleading. Advancing weak arguments damages your positions, not strengthens them.

Exporters are likely to reduce exports over time because of internal demand, geological factors, and a shortage of rigs. The us is already reducing consumption, evidenced that for years the us wanted 2% more/year (400kb/d) every year, and now is somehow making do with <1%.  No doubt everybody save europe, where prices have been steadier, are making do with less than they would have if prices were still around 25/b.

China wastes an enormous amount of energy, teh US somewhat less/unit gop.  We will see prices move everybody towards greater efficiency, just as happened in the seventies.