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220 comments on A Conversation on Energy Issues

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oilmanbob on December 21, 2006 - 3:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
   The main thing wrong with dicouraging the redevelopment of old oil fields is I make my living from them. But aside from my purely personal considerations, we are importing nearly 2/3rds of the oil we use in the US. About 1/2 of your oil cost goes to produce the oil, about 1/2 to refine and distribute it. So my back of the napkin arithmatic shows that1/6th of the cash you spend on gasoline leaves the United States, and not into the hands of your co-countrymen. And the really big oil exporters are not our friends.
  Admittedly some of them, like the Saud family, buy lots of US bonds with the money. That means that your taxes are going to pay interest to slave owning aristocrats who fund terrorists, and this has been happening for years. The only good historical comparison is the nobility in pre-revolutionary France who collected taxes but paid none.
  And, pray tell , do you suggest we get out of this situation. We're like junkies slobbering for a fix. An oil cut-off would rapidly throw the United States into a complete economic convulsion, just as too rapid heroin withdrawel killed Jerry Garcia.
  So think about it. Domestic production is like methadone for the United States. It will ease the symptons while we taper off. Remember what George Bush said, as he left the room with a sulpherous smell "We are addicted to oil". .
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InfinitePossibilities on December 21, 2006 - 4:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Oilmabob... what are you going to make your living with ten years from now when all oil in the US will have been exploited? Wouldn't it be better for you to leave some over for your old days?

Just asking...

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oilmanbob on December 21, 2006 - 4:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
  There is at least 80% of the original oil in place. Early recovery techniques were wasteful. The rate of production is the operative parameter, and I suspect it will be more like 50 years before we stop fiddling around with oil domesticially. And since I'm 55 and diabetic, I expect to be amoung the dead.
  And, if you believe Freddie Hutter, it will be 190 years before the oil runs out. Wonder what kind of mushrooms he's eating in the woods of the Yukon? He probably prays for global warming!
  At any rate, it won't be in anyone's lifetime, although in another 20 or 30 years it won't be used as transportation in anything but antiques and toys. We're definitely ending the cheap oil era in less than 10 years, probably 2 years if I'm reading the signs correctly.
  Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Cornucopian. But we're not going to produce enough domestic oil cheap enough to do more than ease the transition, but I see that as worth doing.
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InfinitePossibilities on December 21, 2006 - 4:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"There is at least 80% of the original oil in place. "

And we all know you can't get to it economically. So what is the deal? Are you hoping to drive mine shafts all the way down to the remaining oil?

"And since I'm 55 and diabetic, I expect to be amoung the dead."

I guess you want me to take your agument as that of a desperate person who's got nothing to lose? That wouldn't make your argument any better... it simply would make you a desperate person. Sorry Bob... you got to do better than that.

"And, if you believe Freddie Hutter, it will be 190 years before the oil runs out."

Why would I believe that? Because "Freddie" is a cute name? Please...

"Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Cornucopian. But we're not going to produce enough domestic oil cheap enough to do more than ease the transition, but I see that as worth doing."

Cheap oil is exactly the source of the problem. It does not matter how long you can keep it cheap... people will not change just because you tell them that it will be extra pricy two years from now. The longer oil stays cheap, the harder the landing will be. You of all men should know that.  It would be far better for the US to limit production at home right now, drive global prices up and force everyone to conserve. Then, ten years from now when the real crunch hits, we would not only need less, but we would have more left over, globally and especially domestically.

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Dot on December 22, 2006 - 10:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You say, in "ten years from now when the real crunch hits".

I agree with this assessment, but it's very uncertain.

If the crunch was going to hit in two years, as alluded to by OMBob, could you imagine that the courses of action you have suggested would greatly magnify the crunch, and thus we shouldn't do them?

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elwoodelmore on December 21, 2006 - 4:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
 there will still be domestic oil prouction in the us for a long   long  time beyond 10 yrs (and exploiters like oilmanbob to exploit it)    your plan for a carbon tax  has about as much chance as     well   lets just say it doesnt look real good     cold turkey on oil ........    yeah  right    
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InfinitePossibilities on December 21, 2006 - 5:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
A near 100% tax on gas is already being payed by more people in Europe than there are people in the US. The US will follow. Not because it likes to but because it is the only solution.

:-)

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oilmanbob on December 21, 2006 - 7:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
InfinitePossibilties, I feel like I'm arguing with a kid. Saying at 55 with a chronic health issue that I believe I won't live to 105 is just reality. Only young guys think that we are immortal.
   The USA is in huge financial trouble because of our profligate ways. Money spent drilling and producing oil wells and reentering oil wells here mostly stays here, is taxed here and provides good, well-paying, honest, productive work for Americans.They spend it in the United States, it has a multiplier effect in the economy making a real product that people need. And that should be obvious.
  As far as the economics, oil has always been a crap shoot. But many old fields were abandned with the wells making 10 or 20 bbl/day per well, just the wells weren't good enough to make a profit at low prices. This is particularly true of fields abandoned about 1932-1933 when oil fell from $100 a bbl to 10 cents a barrel.In lots of fields wells were abandoned making a 20% oil cut because of water disposal costs. In many fields the wells were overproduced and coned, and horizontal wells or infill drilling can profitably restore production. Few fields were waterflooded before 1960, and virtually none were flooded with CO2. Sure, its going to cost a lot per barrel to reenter and produce these wells, but its a hell of a lot cheaper than the $500,000 per barrel per day that Shell is spending on tar production in Canada, plus lifting costs, waste disposal costs and refining costs.
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InfinitePossibilities on December 21, 2006 - 8:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Oilmanbob, as much sympathy as I have with your personal condition, the world was not created to serve you alone. And by that mean any one of us. PO and GW, of all matters are things that concern you and me but will even more concern our children and their children.

I can not look at either problem from my own perspective. I simply can't. Maybe you can and maybe the majority of Americans can, for now, but that does not concern my consciouns.

I think we agree that America has lived beyond its limits. But that is not some diffuse entities fault but our own. We are the only ones who can fix it. And we won't fix it by drilling a few more holes into Earth's crust. The little extra oil we will get from that won't even get you through retirement, far less me and to the kids who are celebrating their first conscious Christmas it won't mean as little as another number in a history book they will probably never read. And sadly enough, even a diabatic these days has all the chances in the world to live longer than the tiny amount of time that your proposed drilling fix can buy us.

I am not talking about Shell having the solution by mining tar. That is just another road we shouldn't bother going down. The richest oil fields in the world right now are in the tanks of our cars. We could have easily stretched the world's oil twofold if we had wanted to. We missed that opportunity. We are missing the last chance to stretch what is left by a third, right now.

The consequences will not be as dire as they will be rather simple. Oil will go to $100 or $120 a barrel and the US government will start raising the gas tax to stop the country from bleeding to death. Either that or the country will bleed to death... it will be black blood but the results will be all the same.

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austex on December 21, 2006 - 8:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The current situation is the reality.  Your idealistic thoughts may sound good to you, but they sound rather silly to me since I know they will never be implemented.  

Besides doubling the price of gas by taxing the shit out of it, shutting in our currently producing oil wells therebye putting honest hardworking people out of work like oilmanbob, and shutting down the oil sands production in Canada - do you have any ideas that are realistic?

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elwoodelmore on December 21, 2006 - 9:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
there is no doubt that the befuddled one spoke the truth (i sort of hate to admit it) when he stated that "america is addicted to oil"    and rather than going cold turkey as infinite suggests   maybe a 12 step program is called for     and i think the first step is admitting we have a problem     and maybe   just maybe when oil gets to $100 or maybe $ 200   people will come to the conclusion that yes we do have a problem    its not too late      americans got along perfectly well during ww2 (or so i have been told)
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Aniya on December 21, 2006 - 9:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hi elwoodelmore,

 I like your idea of "steps". Have you given much thought to a "list" of first steps, and if so, could you share?

 Personally, my view was that "addiction" was not the best metaphor...perhaps came from the speaker's experience. One can (and people do) live without addictive substances. Although people can use what would otherwise be more-or-less nutritional substances as addictions (I suppose both "over-" and "under-" eating can be viewed this way as well), the primacy of oil is more closely tied to basic survival (food and water), on the individual level, even in the US.

 If one wants to use the "addiction" analogy, my suggestion is to take a look at the work of people like Lance Dodes, MD (author, The Heart of Addiction) and others, who put aside oft-repeated conventions and began a fresh exploration. Dodes found the first impulse (in any particular decision to act in line w. the addiction in place) was to respond to an inner feeling of helplessness or lack of control. http://www.amazon.com/Heart-Addiction-Understanding-Alcoholism-Behaviors/dp/0060198117

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elwoodelmore on December 22, 2006 - 8:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
hello aniya    no i dont have a 12 step program as i have never been a direct participant    but call it what we may the "addiction model" has merit  some  call it inelastic demand   but addiction seems to explain why we (americans) are in the fix we are  
   consider for example the junkie who makes damaging choices to feed his or her particular "habit"   and maybe it is not a "physical addiction" at all but only  "psychological addiction"  in any case it think the metaphor has  merit   and maybe the "solution" contains a similar metaphor  
   we may not be able to achieve a 100% cure    and different strokes for different folks   maybe cold turkey will work for some    maybe a gradual weaning will work for some  and maybe an alternative addiction will work .............  on and on    thanks for the link
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Dot on December 22, 2006 - 10:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The addiction analogy has some merit, but it is limited.

The difference between addiction and overshoot is that when remove an addicted substance, you have withdrawal symptoms, but when overshoot removes an available resource, you have death.

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elwoodelmore on December 22, 2006 - 11:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
huh ?
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Aniya on December 21, 2006 - 9:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
HI austex,

 I appreciate your questions.  In all sincerity, what are your ideas?

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220 comments on A Conversation on Energy Issues

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