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138 comments on DrumBeat: December 23, 2006

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oilmanbob on December 23, 2006 - 10:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Roger from the Netherlands, Unfortunately, you may be right. Politicians necessarily act on problems where ther is a ray of hope of a resolution before the next election, a rather unfortunate price we pay for living in republics. Only a lame duck or an out-of-power has been can address those issues,, and he (or she) will be ignored and marginalized. As examples, look at Al Gore on global warming or Jimmy Carter on world peace. They are emenently reasonable, even statesmen, but they are like contagious plague carriers to the national political parties of the United States.
  We have a country to huge that no one can expect to act much different and still be in the ploitical process. Maybe the size of the Netherlands makes statesman-like behaviour possible. The antceint Greeks thought democracy was impossible in any polis with more than about 5,000 citizens, and I'm not seeing much to change my opinion.  
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klee on December 23, 2006 - 12:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
However, leaders can appear to address extraordinary crises using extraordinary means.  Few would have predicted in the 1920s that the basically conservative US  would reformulate itself to address inequality by providing a social safety net and come to accept the role of government as a mediator between citizens and business interests.  Given the challenge of the Great Depression and a leader with the intellect and political skill to lead the nation through that challenge, the US transformed itself and successfully emerged from both the depression and the challenge of fascism.

If there is to be a government based response to Peak Oil, it will require an extraordinary leader like FDR to sell the ide to both the public and elites.

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Roger on December 23, 2006 - 1:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes I agree. In Phase II some redistribution of wealth has to be carried out. Otherwise large outbreaks of violant riots will occur.

But I think that this will only happen when we are a couple of years on the downslope. In the mean time it is wise to get out of debt, get your house and youself in goof shape and buy some gold (not a paper gold-option, but some real krugerrands)

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klee on December 23, 2006 - 2:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I was speaking less to the redistribution of wealth than to the need for leadership.  To address a monumental problem such as peak oil someone needs to 1) recognize the problem and its potential impact; 2) communicate the problem to the populace in an effective way; 3)propose a viable solution (which at this point is not prevention but adaptation and mitigation); 4) mobilize the populace to achieve that solution; and 5) deal with the "Powers That Be" backlash of attempting to preserve the status quo by discrediting the articulation of the problem and proposed solution.  It is a tall order and I don't really see anyone on the horizon who could fill it.

Al Gore has recognized the problem (and most likely has the knowledge of the system to assist in implementation.)  However, he ,like all empiricists, believes that if he just lays out the evidence people will see what the problem is and what they need to do about it.  Unfortunately, as we have seen that is not necessarily the case (see Number 5 above)

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138 comments on DrumBeat: December 23, 2006

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