<DrumBeat: December 4, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: December 5, 2006>

226 comments on A Debate on the Substance and Timing of the Peak of Oil Production and Consumption, Part I

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Erynon on December 4, 2006 - 6:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The world has gone through short-term (3-4 years) plateaus and declines in production before.  The early 80s, for instance.  That oil production has declined for a year and a half so far does not in and of itself tell us that we've reached the ultimate peak.

We need to consider the other facts at hand, such as the world's major oilfields reaching 50% of Qt, the lack of large new projects coming online, etc.  Without this, it's easy for people to just say "oh, it's another temporary plateau--no big deal".

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sendoilplease on December 5, 2006 - 2:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"The world has gone through short-term (3-4 years) plateaus and declines in production before.  The early 80s, for instance."

Iran went off-line in the early 1980s.  Nothing comparable has happened the past couple years that I'm aware of.

I think people say "oh, it's another temporary plateau - no big deal" because they have no idea what caused the past plateaus and how it differs to the past year with OPEC at maxed out production (they admitted it several times this summer).

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226 comments on A Debate on the Substance and Timing of the Peak of Oil Production and Consumption, Part I

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