![]() | New Liberal Leader - First Green PM? | The Oil Drum | A Debate on the Substance and Timing of the Peak of Oil Production and Consumption, Part I | ![]() |
277 comments on DrumBeat: December 4, 2006
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277 comments on DrumBeat: December 4, 2006
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On a unrelated note,
To Dave Cohen and other smart asses reading this:
I call dibbs on the future article title "Smoking the CERA Crackpipe"
About vengeance, a badge and a gun
cause I'll rip the mike, rip the stage, rip the system
I was born to rage against em
Fist in ya face, in the place
And Ill drop the style clearly
Know your enemy...know your enemy!
Granted, certain articles go into details about how the PO movement and neo-green activist are intricately linked to force Americans back to the farmlands. Others deal with the PO communities beliefs that there is no more oil to be found. But on the whole, it's a wealth of information that you probably wont find here as most of us seemed to concede that we are screwed and that no technological solutions and efficiency gains can possibly help us :P
Lol, you didn't read any of the "peak oil debunked" articles, did you. They are actually very insightful. You have problems seeing how anyone could survive your coming "apocalypse", but only because you start with assumptions that make survival impossible. If we need oil (not energy, oil) to survive, then we'll all eventually die, but that scenario is not terribly realistic.
It has the (for instance) tiny problem of explaining the existence of advanced societies long before oil was discovered, and explaining how it is that some advanced societies use vastly less oil than others. The correlation (to say nothing of causation) you're looking for (between oil and advanced society) is not immediately evident.
JD is pretty funny, but he has always been sane. I'm not saying you are wrong, I just think it needs a second opinion.
What did you think about JD's exposure of Kunstler's Y2K views? Just curious.
Put 6 billion people in those same past societies and make them dependent on fast-food or at least populated with folks incapable of growing their own food and see what happens...
Also look at the fate of many of those past advanced societies... they collapsed at some point and disappeared or were rebuilt by others on top of the wreckage. Even most of our "Ancient Cities" that still exist today changed hands via war or other mechanisms that decimated their populations (ebb and flow of civilization).
My assumptions start with our world as it is now - fully functional only with abundant oil and fully dependent on that oil. If we really did have decades to prepare maybe less of the global village would fail.
The "apocalypse" I envision does not mean the end of civilization completely, everywhere, forever. Patches will survive, and afterwards those survivors might be able to build upon the wreckage again.
Much depends on the mechanisms of collapse, how many survivors there are, how many and how much accessible resources there are, and probably a number of other variables I haven't thought of yet or have forgot already.
As REM said - "It's the end of the world as we know it". Not necessarily the end of the world period.
So we should REPLACE oil?
By WHAT?
WHEN ? (how fast)
How is the current scenario realistic?
Ah, the right questions.
Talk to any farmer and they'll laugh at you when you suggest theres not enough food to feed that same 7.5-9 billion people.
Now try to feed that same range AND power our transportation... thats certainly out of the question in my opinion.
Because we require oil for the yields of modern agriculture - and that allows us to grow enough to feed "most" of our world, not all.
"Talk to any farmer and they'll laugh at you when you suggest theres not enough food to feed that same 7.5-9 billion people."
I know few if any farmers who actually think about feeding the world's population - with or without oil. They spend their time thinking about running their farms.
Oil goes much, much deeper than "transportation."
Take some time to look into the oil needed for production (as a feed-stock and/or in the running of the infrastructure necessary for production) of farm machinary, pesticides, fertilizers, herbicides, medicine (veternary), plastics, tractor tires, metals for anything (wire fencing, water pumps and pipes, etc) etc, etc...
AND then of course there is the competition for oil between the farmers and the City Saps for all of their oil needs (remember, most farmer's I know worry about actually keeping their business running and that is hard enough as it in today's economy).
Oil is found in virtually every crevice of our civilization's infrastructure - not just transportation. And when supplies get tight and shortages develop and wars break out...
The farmers might get dibs when it comes to rationing but their yields will go down and there will be even less to go around and that less will be at MUCH higher prices than today.