<DrumBeat: December 6, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: December 7, 2006>

171 comments on Plateau update

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smekhovo on December 6, 2006 - 12:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
As you say, Stuart, not too much has happened in your absence.
I actually think the part of world production you didn't separate out is pretty telling. If you look at global supply ex-former USSR, ex-OPEC, it rose steeply till 1997, and then stopped dead. Still within 1% today of where it was 10 years ago. There just isn't any new source of growth out there on earth.
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BrianT on December 6, 2006 - 1:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Smekhovo: Very astute observation.Combined with WT's analysis/predictions re dramatic declines in Russia and KSA, and the crystal ball looks pretty spooky. I think the Yerginizer glossed over this one by saying that the miracle of technology and the invisible hand will fix everything (obviously it has been sleeping for 10 years).  
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smekhovo on December 6, 2006 - 2:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, when the only parts of the world that has produced without restraining supply to control the price, or suffering a catastrophic social breakdown that idled its fields for years, have been incapable of getting more oil to market,you would think it would make people take notice.
But in Yergin's case, you would be wrong. Unless he speaks with forked tongue.
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westexas on December 6, 2006 - 2:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
But in Yergin's case, you would be wrong. Unless he speaks with forked tongue.

Cognitive Dissonance.  I predict that the more in error Yergin's predictions turn out to be, the more vigorous his attacks on Peak Oil will probably become, ditto for Michael Lynch, Peter Huber, et al.

As I said the other day, "Who are the true cultists?"

Those who believe that a physical world has physical limits, or those like Peter Huber, who believe that we can essentially increase our rate of consumption forever?

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step back on December 7, 2006 - 6:33am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
the more in error Yergin's predictions turn out to be, the more vigorous his attacks on Peak Oil will probably become

How dare you blaspheme the words of our most Reverand Sun Yergin Moon.

He never said there would be oil for all.
Only for those who truly believe.
You are not a true believer.
No oil for you.

Go ahead and cry Texas boy.
No oil for you.
Boo hoo.

Oil only for those who truly believe in the Power of the Invisible Hand, blessed be its name and praise onto our magnificent priests, Yergin ala Huber. For the true believers, the oils will flow forever and beyond. Over hill. Over dale. Over plateaus that never fail. As the barrels go rolling along.

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westexas on December 7, 2006 - 1:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Pretty good. . .
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171 comments on Plateau update

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