<DrumBeat: December 8, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: December 9, 2006>

119 comments on Update on US adaptation to higher oil prices

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odograph on December 8, 2006 - 10:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Stuart - that headline graph is amazing. Combine that with HO's post on chinese imports/demand and we can see why our growth trajectory, whether Peak Oil is this year or 2015, is unsustainable.

Even Tertzakian, who avoids the words "peak oil" expects a "break point" as reservoir depletion overrides discovery and produciton.

How could it be otherwise?

Even as a bit of a VMT skeptic (not that confident in the measure) I think this is positive news.  The graph shows us what we want to see - a deflection from past patterns in response to new conditions.

We wouldn't want a "trajectory" to stubbornly continue as prices rise past the production peak.  We'd want to see responses.

FWIW, I think a similar graph of finished gasoline consumption (and diesel) would be nice.  If gasoline consumption does not deflect (from its past increase) at all, something is wrong with the VMT data.

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ericy on December 8, 2006 - 1:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
To an extent the gasoline and diesel graphs are already here:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_distillate.html

One cautionary note is that we have just gone through the transition to ULSD, so the diesel numbers are kind of wacky for the past 6 months or so.

If you download the whole xls, you get consumption data going back many years and even decades (depends on the category of data, and when they started to collect it).

If we look at gasoline:

you don't see much drop in gas consumption over 2005, but in 2005 we had Katrina, so I would almost want to see curves for 2003 and 2004 as well to see how this year compares to more "normal" years.

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Stuart Staniford on December 8, 2006 - 6:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Here's US gasoline usage:

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odograph on December 8, 2006 - 10:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks, that also shows the clear break from the '94 ro '04 climb.  A ten year expansion.

Unfortunately it shows something the other doesn't, a new high in 2006.  Oh well, count our blessings I guess ... and wait to see what next summer's prices bring.

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119 comments on Update on US adaptation to higher oil prices

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