I agree it is very important to have a water right argument especially when dealing with a technical audience. However, predicting peak oil to the nearest year or even decade is less important with the general public. Most people I talk to don't deny we will start running out of oil. Some will even admit this could happen within 1 or 2 decades. However, 100% of them feel it won't be a problem because technology and alternatives with provide a smooth progression away from oil dependency. They believe that with little or no changes on their part, things will just continue as normal. We need to somehow convince these people of the enormity of the task to get ourselves off oil. They need to understand that changes need to start happening NOW not 20 years in the future.