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220 comments on DrumBeat: December 8, 2006

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tate423 on December 8, 2006 - 12:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
But I am still literally astonished that Oil Patch types are predicting rising production given the evidence that production from the Big Four and the North Sea is nose-diving.

WT,

I check in a few times just to see what you're saying due to the respect you've garnered around here.  I've got one answer for you though and it's from your mouth actually.  

You've always talked about how the East Texas Oil patch was being drilled like crazy following the RR Commisions decision to remove the quotas.  Everyone drilled like crazy and the information verifying Hubbert was established.  Less oil was produced.  Aggregate world peak is no different, so the views of those in the oil patch should also be similar.  I would expect the same/similar reaction as the one over 30 years ago.  Ive been taking a lot of sociology and psych courses for electives.  I've learned that human action is truly at the center of economics, but it took psych and sociology to connect the dots.

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westexas on December 8, 2006 - 12:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You've always talked about how the East Texas Oil patch was being drilled like crazy following the RR Commission decision to remove the quotas.

A little bit of a clarification.   The East Texas Field was fully developed in 1972--actually way over drilled--but it did show a final (lower secondary) peak at the same time that overall Texas production peaked.  East Texas is to Texas as Ghawar is to Saudi Arabia.

The Texas RRC went to a 100% allowable (with a couple of exceptions, one of them being the East Texas Field) in 1972, which allowed Texas operators to produce at 100% of the maximum efficient recovery rate.  

From 1970 to 1980, oil prices went up by about 1,000%.  Overall Texas drilling surged, increasing the number of producing wells by 14% from 1972 to 1982, while production dropped by about 30% over the same time period.

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BOP on December 8, 2006 - 2:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Do any of the geologists on TOD have any information on the production profile of carbonate resevoirs similar to Ghawar?


My understanding is that the porosity and permiability of Ghawar is relatively unique; but there must be other fieds with similar geologic structures which may have a documented production history that might be used to confirm inferences with regard to Ghawar.

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westexas on December 8, 2006 - 3:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yibal is similar, in that it is a carbonate reservoir that was redeveloped with horizontal wells, and the field crashed just as Shell was expanding their surface facilities to handle an expected flood of oil.  Instead, they got a flood of water.  This was a primary contributor to Shell's reserves restatement.

I think that Ghawer is at about the same stage of depletion, as a percentage of Original Oil In Place, at which Yibal started crashing.

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220 comments on DrumBeat: December 8, 2006

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