![]() | The White House: AEI in All Its Glory (SOTU Open Thread 3) | The Oil Drum | EPA's Green Power Partnership | ![]() |
264 comments on Numbers and the State of the Union Energy segment
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
264 comments on Numbers and the State of the Union Energy segment
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Unique Times -- and the Future
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- The Bullroarer - Friday 27th November 2009
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“I'd put my money on solar energy… I hope we don't have to wait til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
—Thomas Edison, in conversation with Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone, March 1931
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
If you do the numbers on the efficiency of capturing sunlight through switchgrass and ethanol, I think you'll find out that it is way better than photovoltaics, at least in temperate climate. And the beauty of ethanol is you can store it indefinitely and use it for an extraordinary variety of purposes. And when all else fails . . . chug-a-lug.
If you do the numbers on the efficiency of capturing sunlight through switchgrass and ethanol, I think you'll find out that it is way better than photovoltaics, at least in temperate climate.
I don't doubt that. I'm not in favor of photovoltaics, either. At least, not in the long run.
Seriously Don, you should probably try to be at least a little less confrontational. This is a casual blog.
Back when I worked for the USDA, they were experimenting with growing switchgrass and other perennial, warm-season grasses were being tested as an optional forage crop (and for other reasons). I'll see if I can dig up some numbers for you guys to jaw over.
My dad used to work for the USDA, too. He's got a PhD in plant physiology. I remember him bringing home those blocks of surplus cheese - one of the perks of working for the USDA. :)
FWIW, here's a link I picked up a few days ago:
http://www.agmrc.org/agmrc/commodity/biomass/switchgrass/
It seems to be a good jumping off point ...
Cooperating producers and the project field coordinator oversee more than 4,000 acres of switchgrass, and have learned many ways to improve establishment and management of this crop. In general, the use of frost seeding, relatively high rates of pure live seed per acre, and early season weed control have contributed to improved switchgrass establishment. They also hope to show the benefits of combining the production of a corn crop during the initial year of switchgrass.
The use of fertilizer varies with soil, yield and time of harvest, but has commonly included at least 100 pounds of nitrogen per acre and maintenance rates for phosphorus and potassium. Some work has been done to grow legumes with the switchgrass crop as a source of nitrogen.
Harvest typically begins after the first killing frost in October when the grass moisture content is 15 percent or less. Yields can be 30 percent greater at this time than if harvest is delayed until later in the winter or spring.
And harvesting no doubt takes heavy equipment, too.
1) Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) does not require nitrogen fertilizers. It will grow without it in almost any appropriate soil, even marginal soil.
[My commentary: Note that this is not "anywhere", as some have argued. It is a prairie grass, and will grow where any prairie grass will. Marginal soils are often used for the growing of non-food crops, such as cotton].
2) Switchgrass yields were very dependent on nitrogen fertilizer applications (475lb/acre typical), as well as recommended amounts of phosphorous (30lb/acre typical), potassium (40lb/acre typical), and lime (varied by field pH) and pesticides.
Herbacide (atrazine) was also sometimes used.
Some plots were grown without any of the above.
- Yields from adjoining plots ranged from around 1.5 tons/acre for untreated plots to nearly 6 tons/acre for fully treated plots.
- Initial trials suggest that 79 gallons of ethanol can be produced per dry ton of switchgrass grown.
This info came from:"Cultivar and Fertility Effects on Switchgrass
Biofuel Production in Southern
Iowa. Lemus, R., Iowa State University, Ames. 2000.
"Economic Feasibility of Growing Herbaceous
Biomass Energy Crops in Iowa," Park, Iowa State University, Ames. 1996.
"Management Guide for the Production of Switchgrass for Biomass Fuel in Southern Iowa", Teel, Barnhart and Miller, ISU Extension, PM 1710, Ames, Iowa. 1997.
"The Conservation Reserve Program as a Means to Subsidize Bioenergy Crop Prices." Walsh, Becker, and Graham. 1996.
"Field Scale Evaluation of Switchgrass Grown As A Bioenergy Crop In The Northern Plains.", Vogel, Schmer, Perrin, Moser, and Mitchell, (conducted by the North Dakota State University Central Grasslands Research Extension Center). 2002.
"Building on Biomass", by Larry Reichenberger, 2003. (Article in 'The Furrow', John Deere magazine on ARS biomass energy research at Lincoln, NE).
What are we waiting for?
For example, metropolitan Atlanta claims more than 50 acres A DAY.
"The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that in just the five years between 1992 and 1997 the nation lost 12.8 million acres of agricultural land: cropland (5.3 million acres), pastureland (6.1 million acres), rangeland (1.4 million acres).
Agricultural land also succumbs to forces other than urban development. Arable land is subject to manmade and natural phenomena such as soil erosion, salinization, and waterlogging that can rob its productivity and eventually force its abandonment.
Much of these losses are due to over-exploitation by intensive agricultural practices needed to constantly raise agricultural productivity (yield per acre) in order to provide ever more food for America's and the world's growing populations."
Source:
http://www.numbersusa.com/interests/farmland.html
"Ohio is losing its productive farmland at an astonishing rate. According to the U.S. Census of Agriculture, Ohio had approximately 21 million acres of land in farms in 1950. By 2002, there were 14 million acres of farmland in Ohio." - Ohio Department of Agriculture
"Our food supply is threatened by development. Eighty-six percent of our fruits and vegetables and 63 percent of our dairy products are produced on the edge of urban areas. The United States is losing two acres of farmland every minute, according to the American Farmland Trust. The rate of loss was 51 percent faster in the 90s than in the 80s. Washington State lost nearly 10,000 prime acres a year between 1992 and 1997 at a rate 30 percent faster than during the previous five years. We're losing the most fertile and productive land most quickly." - American Farmland Trust
Oh well.
I just wanted to make it clear for the die-hard Greens who see switchgrass as our salvation when the oil runs out. Biomass will play a role, to be sure, but a fairly small one, primarily on a local level.
I forsee a hell of a lot of coal to liquid facilities being built in the next 10 years. And of course, since they will be cheaper than biofuels (ignoring the environmental costs as we always do), biofuels will only survive because of subsidies.
As for your coal-to-liquid plans, do you think ten years is a reasonable timeframe? How many such plants do we have now? Even if we could build the infrastructure in 10 years (which is doubtful) where would we get the designing engineers, the management, the operations staff, and the experience to put it together?
So tell me, what's not to like here?
That's good, but it's bound to up as we keep harvesting it. That's what happens with any crop.
As ever, scaling-up is the problem.
No. But we will be forced to choose between fuel and food. And I know which I'd choose.
- Corn cobs and stover.
- Switchgrass or Miscanthus Giganticus grown on marginal or erodible land.
- Woody or herbacious material harvested from bioremediation crops (e.g. contaminated with heavy metals).
For that matter, chicken takes 2 pounds of feed per pound of bird to beef's 8; switching to chicken would save 3/4 of the grain input and allow it to be used for other things. You could get twice as much chicken for half as much grain, assuming that you consider chicken to be food. You could convert the excess grain to fuel, or use the freed land to grow biofuels.What I worry about is whether the market, such as it will be, will induce farmers to plant large tracts of potential vehicle fuel at the expense of potential heating fuel or food.
Will Trump refrain from flying his helicopter just so others can have a ration of beans?
We haven't prevented spot famine and deprivation during a half-century of plenty, how can we expect it post-peak?
I'm on record as being opposed to fuel ethanol because of the low conversion efficiency (read the blog). I am in favor of conversion of biomass to charcoal, which is harder to transport but has far more potential as a high-efficiency fuel and as a chemical feedstock.
Nice personal attack.
I am in favor of conversion of biomass to charcoal, which is harder to transport but has far more potential as a high-efficiency fuel and as a chemical feedstock.
That model removes the carbon from the soil, not to mention all the micro and macro nutrients. And because you like combining the carbon with zinc in many of your models, the price of zinc would go WAY up, given worldwide populations and energy demand.
The plan works fine, until you try to scale it. Then, the plan breaks down - hard.
Using perennial biomass crops with large, deep rhizomes and root structures (such as switchgrass or Miscanthus) would increase soil carbon over cropping with annuals.
And this addresses the carbon that leaves the land in the 'make carbon fuel cells/make zinc-carbon batteries' to some processing plant model exactly how?
Because I've seen pointers to your carbon-power plan, but I've NEVER seen you work the numbers for the actual carbon loss from the LAND vs carbon taken from the air.
Using perennial biomass crops with large, deep rhizomes and root structures (such as switchgrass or Miscanthus) would increase soil carbon over cropping with annuals.
The REASON farmers cover crop with ANNUALS is to not have to have farm machernery work as hard as when they want a food crop VS have to try and kill off PERENNIALS when they want to change crops.
You make a broad claim about increasing the soil carbon, but is that due to recycling of the dead grass at the top, or is that Carbon from the air now placed in the roots? Please feel free to addess the actual carbon flow and the effect of removal of carbon to make fuel cells/batteries without ever replacing the carbon back to the land itself.
But - Is there a reason that you have chosen to NOT address the loss of other elements from the land in the 'lets make carbon fuel cells/batteries' model?
All a matter of perceptions and perspectives . . . .
Offering up 'the plan' as 'save us all' IS EXACLTY the issue.
Plans like 'carbonize the plants, there is enough land' or 'make booze for cars' or 'the hydrogen economy' is usually offered up as 'save everyone'.
The diet of cheap oil has made the chief consumer a pig, and have created a set of unsutainable demand profile.
The cheap oil is comming to an end and a fear for how our fellow man will react is why most of us are here.
Thank you writing your "Politics and the English Language Essay." Where are you, now that we need you?
Were I on board the Titanic at dinner in the First Class section with the Captain, and had I noticed the messages he was getting from the radio room in regard to ice bergs, I would have punched him in the nose or stabbed him with a fork or done something else to disable him, because the guy was criminally irresponsible. For one thing he had the engines going flat out, despite pleas from the Chief Engineer to let them be broken in at lower revs. For another, he would have known better (had he been sober) and reduced speed to "Slow ahead" or stopped for the night, had he been in his right mind. He was not.
Once the ice berg sliced open the hull, it would have made sense to man the life boats immediately, even before a call to abandon ship. Note that by the time the berg was sighted, there was NO WAY WHATSOEVER to save everybody on board. Sometimes we must recognize unpleasant facts and deal with them as best we can. Rhetoric does not make reality go away.
Sorry I'm so late with that reference. That report is referenced in the Science article reconsidering whether ethanol is energy positive or negative. I have to say, having read the study and report I'm still quite skeptical. To see why, do a search in the report for "drought". You'll find one hit, "None of the scenarios consider the possibility that technology could overcome yield limitations caused by drought and pests or increase nutrient use efficiency." This sounds to me as though they are completely ignoring the climate change predictions of more drought and heavy precipitation events. But, as usual, technology will solve these drought problems.
I can imagine a day in the future when we have moved a significant percentage of our transportation fuels to biofuels, only to be hit by a multi-year drought that drastically reduces biomass production. We already have farmers giving up irrigation because the high cost of natural gas to fuel their pumps makes it uneconomic.
The 'getting on your nerves' is because he is right, and others have tried to point out to you and all the others 'lets grow grass' or 'lets use tree waste' proposals is:
WHEN DO YOU RETURN THE 'WASTE' TO THE SOIL?
At the point where one can obtain/use one of the grass->liquid fuel processes on 40 acres so that the waste doesn't leave the land AND be able to turn a profit in 5 years, then it is a viable idea.
Otherwise - it is a bad long-term plan.
You feel your nerve being pinched because part of your brain KNOWS it is a bad long term plan.
Please list the following sources of bio-fuel which threaten to leave you without food:
1. Corn cobs and stover.
If the cobs are shipped off to a large processing plant and the 'cob waste' is not returned, after years of doing such you WILL have 'no food'.
2. Switchgrass or Miscanthus Giganticus grown on marginal or erodible land.
What a great plan! Lets base the energy resource on marginal crop yeilds! Marginal land means marginal energy production.
In such an energy proposal, erodable land won't survive the mechnical harvesting of the grasses.
If the energy crop on the land doesn't come in, the taxes on the land are STILL due, and tax demands will result in poor planing over time in many cases.
3. Woody or herbacious material harvested from bioremediation crops (e.g. contaminated with heavy metals).
Now HERE is a workable idea. So long as society decides that the energy needed to seperate contaminates from useful product in the output is worth the energy. Thus far, the track record when there is abundant energy to do such hasn't been so good.
Your three points are nice grass-straw men.
What will end up happening in a grass->liquid fuel model is:
www.maproyalty.com/stanford/6-15-05.html
www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR"archive/feb01/bank0201.pdp
www.nrpb.org/papers/034.pdf
The above sources are all free and reputable and provide links to other respected sources of infomation.
Now, I would like to see some sources that claim to refute the well-documented findings cited above. And if there are none to be found, that will be as interesting as the dog that did not bark in the night.
Two of those links are 404. The one that does work does not lead to a peer-reviewed study, but to a "news abstract" of a report written by politicians, George P. Shultz and R. James Woolsey.
It's an article on sequestering carbon in agricultural soils. It doesn't say that much about switchgrass, except this paragraph:
It's interesting, but since that estimate is based on R&D in progress, it doesn't amount to more than an educated guess (along the lines of "someday, fusion will solve all of our energy problems.") That is also only one location, so it doesn't really say anything about the overall resource or whether it could be managed sustainably.
Chris
Wind power is pretty good up to supplying about 15% of total power to a grid, after than you run into huge problems from interruptibility.
For your information:
In 2005 wind turbines produced 17% of the electricity consumption in Denmark. On a windy day the turbines would produce maybe 50% of the total power with no problem. Within a few years the wind energy production is expected to increase to 25% with 50% as a longer time goal. The problems from 'interuptibility' are not considered 'huge' but as a technical challenge :-)
Perhaps the model of 'electrical power all the time' is the issue?
Perhaps the level of expectation is unacceptable?
That is a damn shame,
Yup. Damn broken models.