Please check your sources. Switchgrass requires no fertilizers; it grows like a weed and is hard to get rid of no matter what you do. Most of the soil bank is in switchgrass, and were we to use that acreage to meet GWB's ethanol goals we might be roughly half way there without planting any more acreage. There is a superabundance of stinking animal manure in the U.S., loaded with nitrogen; that could efficiently be used to boost switchgrass yields even higher--maybe get as many as four cuttings a year in temperate climates. That stuff grows darn near as fast as bamboo.

If you do the numbers on the efficiency of capturing sunlight through switchgrass and ethanol, I think you'll find out that it is way better than photovoltaics, at least in temperate climate. And the beauty of ethanol is you can store it indefinitely and use it for an extraordinary variety of purposes. And when all else fails . . . chug-a-lug.

I did check my sources.

If you do the numbers on the efficiency of capturing sunlight through switchgrass and ethanol, I think you'll find out that it is way better than photovoltaics, at least in temperate climate.

I don't doubt that.  I'm not in favor of photovoltaics, either.  At least, not in the long run.

Please cite your peer-reviewed sources relating to switchgrass potential.
Cite yours, and I'll cite mine.
Sounds fair.

Seriously Don, you should probably try to be at least a little less confrontational.  This is a casual blog.

Back when I worked for the USDA, they were experimenting with growing switchgrass and other perennial, warm-season grasses were being tested as an optional forage crop (and for other reasons).  I'll see if I can dig up some numbers for you guys to jaw over.

That would be great.  Seems switchgrass is the crop du jour, what with the SOTU mention and all.

My dad used to work for the USDA, too.  He's got a PhD in plant physiology. I remember him bringing home those blocks of surplus cheese - one of the perks of working for the USDA.  :)

Boy we go from a rare mention of switchgrass to a veritable grassfire!

FWIW, here's a link I picked up a few days ago:

http://www.agmrc.org/agmrc/commodity/biomass/switchgrass/

It seems to be a good jumping off point ...

Thanks for the link.  It sounds much like any other crop to me:

Cooperating producers and the project field coordinator oversee more than 4,000 acres of switchgrass, and have learned many ways to improve establishment and management of this crop. In general, the use of frost seeding, relatively high rates of pure live seed per acre, and early season weed control have contributed to improved switchgrass establishment. They also hope to show the benefits of combining the production of a corn crop during the initial year of switchgrass.

The use of fertilizer varies with soil, yield and time of harvest, but has commonly included at least 100 pounds of nitrogen per acre and maintenance rates for phosphorus and potassium. Some work has been done to grow legumes with the switchgrass crop as a source of nitrogen.

Harvest typically begins after the first killing frost in October when the grass moisture content is 15 percent or less. Yields can be 30 percent greater at this time than if harvest is delayed until later in the winter or spring.

And harvesting no doubt takes heavy equipment, too.

By stoichiometry, it takes perhaps 2 pounds of biomass to fix a pound of nitrogen by gasification and the Haber process.  200 pounds/acre of grass is 1-2% of typical switchgrass yields.
Okay, here's what I was able to dig up from my old contacts at USDA/ARS:

1) Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) does not require nitrogen fertilizers. It will grow without it in almost any appropriate soil, even marginal soil.  
[My commentary: Note that this is not "anywhere", as some have argued. It is a prairie grass, and will grow where any prairie grass will. Marginal soils are often used for the growing of non-food crops, such as cotton].

2) Switchgrass yields were very dependent on nitrogen fertilizer applications (475lb/acre typical), as well as recommended amounts of phosphorous (30lb/acre typical), potassium (40lb/acre typical), and lime (varied by field pH) and pesticides.  
Herbacide (atrazine) was also sometimes used.
Some plots were grown without any of the above.

  1. Yields from adjoining plots ranged from around 1.5 tons/acre for untreated plots to nearly 6 tons/acre for fully treated plots.

  2. Initial trials suggest that 79 gallons of ethanol can be produced per dry ton of switchgrass grown.

This info came from:
"Cultivar and Fertility Effects on Switchgrass
Biofuel Production in Southern
Iowa. Lemus, R., Iowa State University, Ames. 2000.

"Economic Feasibility of Growing Herbaceous
Biomass Energy Crops in Iowa," Park, Iowa State University, Ames. 1996.

"Management Guide for the Production of Switchgrass for Biomass Fuel in Southern Iowa", Teel, Barnhart and Miller, ISU Extension, PM 1710, Ames, Iowa. 1997.

"The Conservation Reserve Program as a Means to Subsidize Bioenergy Crop Prices." Walsh, Becker, and Graham. 1996.

"Field Scale Evaluation of Switchgrass Grown As A Bioenergy Crop In The Northern Plains.", Vogel, Schmer, Perrin, Moser, and Mitchell, (conducted by the North Dakota State University Central Grasslands Research Extension Center). 2002.

"Building on Biomass", by Larry Reichenberger, 2003.  (Article in 'The Furrow', John Deere magazine on ARS biomass energy research at Lincoln, NE).

Based on that, I estimate that we will need about 700,000,000 acres of land to replace our petroleum for transportation.  Heck, that is only 37% of the continental United States.  

What are we waiting for?

Unfortunately, there is not anywhere near that much farmland available in the US (375 million, 1997 figures), and the amount left available is shrinking daily, thanks to the suburban building boom.

For example, metropolitan Atlanta claims more than 50 acres A DAY.

"The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that in just the five years between 1992 and 1997 the nation lost 12.8 million acres of agricultural land: cropland (5.3 million acres), pastureland (6.1 million acres), rangeland (1.4 million acres).

Agricultural land also succumbs to forces other than urban development. Arable land is subject to manmade and natural phenomena such as soil erosion, salinization, and waterlogging that can rob its productivity and eventually force its abandonment.

Much of these losses are due to over-exploitation by intensive agricultural practices needed to constantly raise agricultural productivity (yield per acre) in order to provide ever more food for America's and the world's growing populations."
Source:
http://www.numbersusa.com/interests/farmland.html

"Ohio is losing its productive farmland at an astonishing rate.  According to the U.S. Census of Agriculture, Ohio had approximately 21 million acres of land in farms in 1950.  By 2002, there were 14 million acres of farmland in Ohio." - Ohio Department of Agriculture

"Our food supply is threatened by development. Eighty-six percent of our fruits and vegetables and 63 percent of our dairy products are produced on the edge of urban areas. The United States is losing two acres of farmland every minute, according to the American Farmland Trust. The rate of loss was 51 percent faster in the 90s than in the 80s. Washington State lost nearly 10,000 prime acres a year between 1992 and 1997 at a rate 30 percent faster than during the previous five years. We're losing the most fertile and productive land most quickly." - American Farmland Trust

Oh well.

my tongue was firmly in my cheek when I pretended like it was at all possible to convert that much land to switchgrass production.
I saw that, and you're right on point.
I just wanted to make it clear for the die-hard Greens who see switchgrass as our salvation when the oil runs out. Biomass will play a role, to be sure, but a fairly small one, primarily on a local level.
My personal expectation is that we can sustainably produce biofuels with an energy capacity equal to about 10% of current usage.  With hybrid technology, we may be able to drive 20-30% of the miles we now drive.

I forsee a hell of a lot of coal to liquid facilities being built in the next 10 years.  And of course, since they will be cheaper than biofuels (ignoring the environmental costs as we always do), biofuels will only survive because of subsidies.

Your energy expectations for biofuels are based on public relations and hyperbole. Haven't you read anything written here? To replace 10% of our gasoline would require our entire current corn crop. That leaves us without livestock feed or pharmaceutical ethanol; much less high-fructose corn syrup for softdrinks and modified corn starch for our microwave-ready entrees.

As for your coal-to-liquid plans, do you think ten years is a reasonable timeframe? How many such plants do we have now? Even if we could build the infrastructure in 10 years (which is doubtful) where would we get the designing engineers, the management, the operations staff, and the experience to put it together?

Do you have any peer-reviewed sources suggesting it is possible to sustain high productivity with switchgrass, harvested regularly, without fertilizer application? My plant physiology background leaves me skeptical.
Here's what I found relating to fertilizer - from your source.

Because it is native, switchgrass is resistant to many pests and plant diseases, and it is capable of producing high yields with very low applications of fertilizer. This means that the need for agricultural chemicals to grow switchgrass is relatively low. Switchgrass is also very tolerant of poor soils, flooding and drought, which are widespread agricultural problems in the southeast.

So tell me, what's not to like here?

It didn't say no fertilizer.  It said low applications of fertlizer.  

That's good, but it's bound to up as we keep harvesting it.  That's what happens with any crop.  

As ever, scaling-up is the problem.  

It said very low applications of fertilizer.  Are we supposed to stop growing food because the crops use fertilizer?  I'm trying to figure out what your workable solutions are.  The fertilizer being referenced is most likely nitrogen and that can be fixed with legumes or nitrogen fixation nodules on the roots.  With that addition Switchgrass may well require no fertilizer other than the trace minerals restored from the byproducts of processing.
Are we supposed to stop growing food because the crops use fertilizer?  

No.  But we will be forced to choose between fuel and food.  And I know which I'd choose.  

Since your negativity appears irrational and is getting on my nerves, I'm going to ask you to show your reasoning here:
... we will be forced to choose between fuel and food.  And I know which I'd choose.
Please list the following sources of bio-fuel which threaten to leave you without food:
  1. Corn cobs and stover.
  2. Switchgrass or Miscanthus Giganticus grown on marginal or erodible land.
  3. Woody or herbacious material harvested from bioremediation crops (e.g. contaminated with heavy metals).
For that matter, chicken takes 2 pounds of feed per pound of bird to beef's 8; switching to chicken would save 3/4 of the grain input and allow it to be used for other things.  You could get twice as much chicken for half as much grain, assuming that you consider chicken to be food.  You could convert the excess grain to fuel, or use the freed land to grow biofuels.
I've already addressed this, in my first post to this thread.
I suspect the beef industry would resist, but, yes, in a perfect world, we could make a lot of efficient moves to drive our fuel and eat it, too.  

What I worry about is whether the market, such as it will be, will induce farmers to plant large tracts of potential vehicle fuel at the expense of potential heating fuel or food.  

Will Trump refrain from flying his helicopter just so others can have a ration of beans?

We haven't prevented spot famine and deprivation during a half-century of plenty, how can we expect it post-peak?

Currently there are 72 million acres, 112,500 square miles of land devoted to corn (equal to the entire surface area of Iowa and Illinois.) To grow corn for all our gasoline needs would require 562,500 square miles, 1/6 of the country. To replace our all crude petroleum needs would require 1,200,000 square miles of corn, all the land east of the Mississippi. (That is all the land. No more roads, homes, shopping centers, theme parks.) Cellulosic material such as you mentioned has less, not more inherent energy, and so would take more land i.e. most the country.
The 2004 corn crop (11.8 billion bushels) was harvested from 73.6 million acres, out of 80.7 million planted.  (Source:  USDA.)
To grow corn for all our gasoline needs would require 562,500 square miles, 1/6 of the country. To replace our all crude petroleum needs would require 1,200,000 square miles of corn, all the land east of the Mississippi.
Why are you harping on grain from maize when I was talking about crop byproducts and material unfit for food?  Neither your grammar nor reading comprehension are up to par.

I'm on record as being opposed to fuel ethanol because of the low conversion efficiency (read the blog).  I am in favor of conversion of biomass to charcoal, which is harder to transport but has far more potential as a high-efficiency fuel and as a chemical feedstock.

Neither your grammar nor reading comprehension are up to par.

Nice personal attack.

I am in favor of conversion of biomass to charcoal, which is harder to transport but has far more potential as a high-efficiency fuel and as a chemical feedstock.

That model removes the carbon from the soil, not to mention all the micro and macro nutrients.   And because you like combining the carbon with zinc in many of your models, the price of zinc would go WAY up, given worldwide populations and energy demand.  

The plan works fine, until you try to scale it.   Then, the plan breaks down - hard.

Substitution of no-till for conventional moldboard tilling increases soil carbon nearly as much as removal of crop stubble by grazing reduces it (reference).

Using perennial biomass crops with large, deep rhizomes and root structures (such as switchgrass or Miscanthus) would increase soil carbon over cropping with annuals.

Substitution of no-till for conventional moldboard tilling increases soil carbon nearly as much as removal of crop stubble by grazing reduces it

And this addresses the carbon that leaves the land in the 'make carbon fuel cells/make zinc-carbon batteries' to some processing plant model exactly how?  

Because I've seen pointers to your carbon-power plan, but I've NEVER seen you work the numbers for the actual carbon loss from the LAND vs carbon taken from the air.

Using perennial biomass crops with large, deep rhizomes and root structures (such as switchgrass or Miscanthus) would increase soil carbon over cropping with annuals.

The REASON farmers cover crop with ANNUALS is to not have to have farm machernery work as hard as when they want a food crop VS have to try and kill off PERENNIALS when they want to change crops.

You make a broad claim about increasing the soil carbon, but is that due to recycling of the dead grass at the top, or is that Carbon from the air now placed in the roots?   Please feel free to addess the actual carbon flow and the effect of removal of carbon to make fuel cells/batteries without ever replacing the carbon back to the land itself.

But - Is there a reason that you have chosen to NOT address the loss of other elements from the land in the 'lets make carbon fuel cells/batteries' model?  

I imagine that as the Titanic was sinking there were some shrill voices raised to protest the launching of any life boats, because there were not enough life boats to save everybody. The same shrill voices probably kept harping on the negligence of the Cunard line executives, the fact that the Skipper was drinking too much that night, and furthermore, the band was playing out of tune.

All a matter of perceptions and perspectives . . . .

I imagine that as the Titanic was sinking there were some shrill voices raised to protest the launching of any life boats, because there were not enough life boats to save everybody.

Offering up 'the plan' as 'save us all' IS EXACLTY the issue.

Plans like 'carbonize the plants, there is enough land' or 'make booze for cars' or 'the hydrogen economy' is usually offered up as 'save everyone'.

The diet of cheap oil has made the chief consumer a pig, and have created a set of unsutainable demand profile.

The cheap oil is comming to an end and a fear for how our fellow man will react is why most of us are here.

Dear George Orwell,
Thank you writing your "Politics and the English Language Essay." Where are you, now that we need you?

Were I on board the Titanic at dinner in the First Class section with the Captain, and had I noticed the messages he was getting from the radio room in regard to ice bergs, I would have punched him in the nose or stabbed him with a fork or done something else to disable him, because the guy was criminally irresponsible. For one thing he had the engines going flat out, despite pleas from the Chief Engineer to let them be broken in at lower revs. For another, he would have known better (had he been sober) and reduced speed to "Slow ahead" or stopped for the night, had he been in his right mind. He was not.

Once the ice berg sliced open the hull, it would have made sense to man the life boats immediately, even before a call to abandon ship. Note that by the time the berg was sighted, there was NO WAY WHATSOEVER to save everybody on board. Sometimes we must recognize unpleasant facts and deal with them as best we can. Rhetoric does not make reality go away.

I think you will all be interested in this report: Biomass as Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry: The Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton Annual Supply

Sorry I'm so late with that reference. That report is referenced in the Science article reconsidering whether ethanol is energy positive or negative. I have to say, having read the study and report I'm still quite skeptical. To see why, do a search in the report for "drought". You'll find one hit, "None of the scenarios consider the possibility that technology could overcome yield limitations caused by drought and pests or increase nutrient use efficiency." This sounds to me as though they are completely ignoring the climate change predictions of more drought and heavy precipitation events. But, as usual, technology will solve these drought problems.

I can imagine a day in the future when we have moved a significant percentage of our transportation fuels to biofuels, only to be hit by a multi-year drought that drastically reduces biomass production. We already have farmers giving up irrigation because the high cost of natural gas to fuel their pumps makes it uneconomic.

Since your negativity appears irrational and is getting on my nerves,

The 'getting on your nerves' is because he is right, and others have tried to point out to you and all the others 'lets grow grass' or 'lets use tree waste' proposals is:

WHEN DO YOU RETURN THE 'WASTE' TO THE SOIL?

At the point where one can obtain/use one of the grass->liquid fuel processes on 40 acres so that the waste doesn't leave the land AND be able to turn a profit in 5 years, then it is a viable idea.  

Otherwise - it is a bad long-term plan.    

You feel your nerve being pinched because part of your brain KNOWS it is a bad long term plan.

Please list the following sources of bio-fuel which threaten to leave you without food:

   1. Corn cobs and stover.

If the cobs are shipped off to a large processing plant and the 'cob waste' is not returned, after years of doing such you WILL have 'no food'.

  2. Switchgrass or Miscanthus Giganticus grown on marginal or erodible land.

What a great plan!   Lets base the energy resource on marginal crop yeilds!   Marginal land means marginal energy production.

In such an energy proposal, erodable land won't survive the mechnical harvesting of the grasses.

If the energy crop on the land doesn't come in, the taxes on the land are STILL due, and tax demands will result in poor planing over time in many cases.

  3. Woody or herbacious material harvested from bioremediation crops (e.g. contaminated with heavy metals).

Now HERE is a workable idea.   So long as society decides that the energy needed to seperate contaminates from useful product in the output is worth the energy.   Thus far, the track record when there is abundant energy to do such hasn't been so good.

Your three points are nice grass-straw men.

What will end up happening in a grass->liquid fuel model is:

  1. Farmland farmed for corn/soybeans while cutting present supplement rates by farmers who have no heirs who want to carry on the farm (strip mining the land for cash)  The 'corn stovers' and 'crop waste' - shipped off the land.
  2. After yeilds drop far enough on food/food waste->energy model, the grass->energy model will be used.  
  3. Once the grass->energy strip mining is done, the farmer will 'get out of the busines' and sell the land, having maximized the cash profit.
O.K., you want a few sources for a primer on switchgrass, here goes:
www.maproyalty.com/stanford/6-15-05.html
www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR"archive/feb01/bank0201.pdp
www.nrpb.org/papers/034.pdf

The above sources are all free and reputable and provide links to other respected sources of infomation.

Now, I would like to see some sources that claim to refute the well-documented findings cited above. And if there are none to be found, that will be as interesting as the dog that did not bark in the night.

????

Two of those links are 404.  The one that does work does not lead to a peer-reviewed study, but to a "news abstract" of a report written by politicians, George P. Shultz and R. James Woolsey.

man am I ever convinced
Don, you need to fix your links. The usda and nrpb links are nonfunctional. You've charged through a few threads and cast doubt on many people's legitimate comments by demanding peer-reviewed sources with an air of righteous indignation. But I haven't seen you provide any sources of your own, until now, sort of. Tremendous effort.
The USDA article is actually at "Depositing Carbon in the Bank: The Soil Bank, That Is"

It's an article on sequestering carbon in agricultural soils. It doesn't say that much about switchgrass, except this paragraph:

Vogel and Follett are measuring the amount of carbon stored in the soil when switchgrass is grown as a biofuel crop to determine if it is equivalent to that stored on CRP grasslands. They chose switchgrass because DOE identified it as a promising candidate. DOE found that one of the first areas where switchgrass can be economically grown as a biofuel crop is the Northern Plains. Vogel estimates that switchgrass could yield 500 gallons of ethanol per acre there.

It's interesting, but since that estimate is based on R&D in progress, it doesn't amount to more than an educated guess (along the lines of "someday, fusion will solve all of our energy problems.") That is also only one location, so it doesn't really say anything about the overall resource or whether it could be managed sustainably.

I did the numbers a while ago. I don't remember them exactly. But switchgrass wasn't too much higher than other plants: a few percent efficient, and that's before ethanol conversion. Photovoltaics are about an order of magnitude better.

Chris

The problem with using solar energy to generate electricity is that the sun does not shine all the time, and there are no reasonably good ways to store electricity in large quantities. That is a damn shame, and I wish some of the creative ideas of the 1950s (such as huge very fast spinning fly wheels) had panned out--but none of them have. Thus, you run into the problem with both wind and solar power that backup facilities (e.g. natural gas turbines) are needed, and once you start adding up the capital costs, take account of the extremely expensive initial cost (both in terms of money and fossil fuels) of photo voltaic arrays, costs of maintenance and cleaning, limited life (probably less than 20 years; nobody really knows), it becomes clear that with present-day technology photovoltaic power generation will have only niche uses.

Wind power is pretty good up to supplying about 15% of total power to a grid, after than you run into huge problems from interruptibility.

Have you seen the projects in the mojave? Instead of converting solar directly to electric, reflecting troughs concentrate the sun onto a tube filled with... was it molten salt or oil... well here's the source http://www.solarserver.de/lexikon/parabolrinnenkraftwerk-e.html (since you are so fond of them). Anywayz, the heated salt (or oil) then heats another closed loop of water (though other systems have been suggested). The water spins a turbine... you get the idea. The unique idea for energy storage was to dig into the ground, and store large amounts of the fluid in said ground overnight. During the night, the fluid could still be pumped out allowing continuous power generation. If nothing else, the turbine could be a hybrid which would also run of NG, or ethanol, or hemp depending on who's numbers you believe. Either way, the system will operate for just about forever, and has much better conversion factor than photovoltaics.
Don wrote:
Wind power is pretty good up to supplying about 15% of total power to a grid, after than you run into huge problems from interruptibility.
For your information:
In 2005 wind turbines produced 17% of the electricity consumption in Denmark. On a windy day the turbines would produce maybe 50% of the total power with no problem. Within a few years the wind energy production is expected to increase to 25% with 50% as a longer time goal. The problems from 'interuptibility' are not considered 'huge' but as a technical challenge :-)
Sorry, the numbers for 2005 are not out yet. I really meant 2004. However, I just checked and found to my surprise that the official number for 2004 is 18.5% wind share of Danish electricity consumption.
You are also connected to the Swedish grid where we have lots of easily regulated hydro power. 50% wind power in Denmark is no problem if some more new high tension lines and HVDC links are built. This is easy to finance if you sell wind power for a lower price then you buy hydro power using Swedish hydro dams as energy storage. So build as much as you can if you can finance the wind powerplants.
The problem with using solar energy to generate electricity is that the sun does not shine all the time, and there are no reasonably good ways to store electricity in large quantities.

Perhaps the model of 'electrical power all the time' is the issue?

Perhaps the level of expectation is unacceptable?

That is a damn shame,

Yup.   Damn broken models.