<A bit of optimism in the air today The Oil Drum I Guess It's Better than the SETI Stuff We Geeks Did...>

137 comments on Tuesday open thread

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Oil CEO on February 14, 2006 - 1:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I'm posting this in response to Matthew Lynn's piece in Bloomberg News.

He said:

Yet raise your eyes from the day-to-day chatter, and the market is more stable than it has been for a long time. The price won't collapse, and it won't soar either. There is nothing trickier than calling the top of a bull market. For oil, however, this looks like it.

CrudePrice2004_6

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Sam Foucher on February 14, 2006 - 3:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Two comments:
  • I'm always careful when looking at a moving average, you have to apply a shift of 13 weeks (3 months) to the left because sliding windows are not centered.
  • there was also a plateau in may 2005 but the prices continued to increase afterward.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on February 14, 2006 - 3:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The way I see it, the 26-week average today is simply a representation of the past 6-months of prices and to some degree the cumulative effect of those prices on the economy.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Gets IT on February 14, 2006 - 8:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Same thing they said about the San Andres Fault.  In the FX markets, the biggest moves are always made from the flattest lines.  How long was oil at 20?  

At least thats the catastrophic theorist's viewpoint... all those hidden stresses building up for a break to a new attractor (temporary equilibrium) point.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

137 comments on Tuesday open thread

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version