First, this is not my outlook.  It is a compilation of the world's 11 best modelers.  On Christmas Day, Colin Campbell reviewed the year's data and moved his conventional production peak to 2005 from 2004.  Again.  And he has increased his "all liquids" production peak to 86-mbd from 85.  Again.  In November, Rembrands Koppelaar reviewed all the current data for one of the most comprehensive outlooks (incl refining capacity component) and forecast a 92.4-mbd peak ahead of us.

Yet pundits here ignore the best Peakist predictions and dwell on their navel gazing and ad nauseum posts that we are post peak.  As if our friends from Ireland and the Netherlands had somehow joined "the dark side".

So yes, Bio, it is mere whining.

In 1991, Lynch said we be at 81-mbd in 2005.  It was indeed 84.  IEA was next best with its 1996 forecast of 80-mbd for 2005.  And EIA (aka DOE) saw 79-mbd coming back in 1997.

All the while Campbell foresaw 55-mbd in '91 and upped it to 64 in 1997.

In this our third year of publishing the Scenarios, we continue to see the optimists coming down and the Peakist revising upwards.  And IEA's middle-of-the-road outlook continues to represent the likely outcome...

Extremists at both ends of the spectrum face gnashing of teeth each year end.  We have two sets of whiners...

Thanks Freddy. EIA suggesting possible peak at 102 mbpd sounds very ominous, I guess that's about 2015. I wonder how long it'll be before CERA begins to shift towards the median?

Just checked your site, seems that the EIA is anticipating a considerable reduction in rate of production growth compared with the previous high price scenario, with peak still as late as 2030 maybe. That's only half the rate of production / consumption increase we've had in the last 5 years despite tripling of price over that time. Smells a bit odd.