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174 comments on Living in the Eemian

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Agric on February 20, 2006 - 10:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There will be a recession and quite possibly a depression on a scale similar to the 1930s regardless of peak oil. The imbalances in the US and global economies make it near inevitable. I hope that peak oil becomes widely understood  before the recession hits so that appropriate actions can be taken for both, simultaneously. The nightmare scenario is recession slightly delaying peak oil and then peak oil hitting just as things start to turn up economically. The US is more dependent on oil than any other country and the proportionate reduction in wealth will be greater in the US than elsewhere.
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oilaholic on February 20, 2006 - 12:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Could be a recession just based on normal cyclicality of the economy, Fed tightening, housing bust, etc.  But the  question I raise is whether, as I predict, the feedback mechanism of a PO-generated recession will cause oil demand to drop to well below the available supply, leaving room for a subsequent (mild and limited) expansion - the net result being a far greater time horizon for the world to adjust to PO.  The real bottom line: no doomsday scenario - just a long hard slog until we reach a new equilibrium economy based on much much less use of fossil fuels.
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TJ on February 20, 2006 - 1:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Stuart took a whack at this in a post a couple of months ago.  His conclusion is that if the decline in oil is about 4% or less, the economy will remain stable and maybe grow a little in the future.  Anything more and we're SOL, probably for a long time.
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oilaholic on February 20, 2006 - 4:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It makes sense that the whole issue would be dependent on the rate of decline in oil available to the "free" market, post PO. My assumption is that it will be fairly mild for quite a few years.  That might change dramaticly if certain exporters decide it's in their best interest to husband their inventory.   In any case, I'd love to read Stuart's analysis.  Does anyone have link?  Thanks.
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Stuart Staniford on February 20, 2006 - 5:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Relevant would be:

4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares?

and

Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze

and

Extrapolating World Production

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TrueKaiser on February 20, 2006 - 6:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
that information is nice to know and is needed.
but
you still need to take into account human behavior.

Basically the amount of decline is academic if all that is needed to trigger resource wars and other types of despair is the fact that it is declining no matter what you can do.

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Stuart Staniford on February 20, 2006 - 8:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree geopolitics of one and kind another are the main uncertainties. But we at least have some degree choice about that...
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Agric on February 21, 2006 - 12:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Free choice, free will, the fixedness or malleability of the future? Is there any way of knowing?

Is choice real or illusion, does it matter? Perhaps geopolitical events are the consequence of build up of tensions and imbalances. Maybe we are just looking in the wrong direction?

Are geopolitical events merely the expression of a more underlying reality.

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Agric on February 21, 2006 - 12:33am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm sorry, many of the replies seem to be unaware of my first sentence: "There will be a recession and quite possibly a depression on a scale similar to the 1930s regardless of peak oil."

Stuart was talking about the effects of a slow squeeze on oil production, what I am talking about is independent of that.

The crux will be the timing and interaction of recession and PO, and the ways geopolitical events shape these, and these shape geopolitical events.

I am not saying that PO will cause a depression (though it would) I am saying there is going to be a recession regardless of PO. THERE WILL BE A RECESSION VERY SOON, no possible avoidance. Sorry if you don't like that, reality ain't gonna negotiate on it.

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Stoneleigh on February 21, 2006 - 11:24am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree with you, Agric.
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174 comments on Living in the Eemian

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