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241 comments on World Nuclear Panel Refers Iran to the Security Council

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Jack Greene on February 5, 2006 - 6:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The League of Nations is correct! It is an example of utter failure of the international restraint system.
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Big Gav on February 5, 2006 - 7:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Didn't Italy invade Ethipoia ?

Which country is Iran threatening to invade ?

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wkwillis on February 5, 2006 - 7:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Iran is occupying parts of the Shia Arab nation (as is Saudi Arabia), part of Baluchistan, part of Azerbaijan, part of Armenia, part of Kurdistan, and part of the Pushtan region, whatever they call it these days.
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muhandis on February 5, 2006 - 12:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Iran's 'occupation' is similar to the US 'occupation' of Puerto Rico, France's 'occupation' of Alcase, Italy's occupation of "South Tyrol', Poland's 'occupation' of Prussia, etc...

These are artifacts of history, events, conflicts,etc... What wkwillis refers to as Iranian occupation are the remains of the old Persian Empire -- which started long before there was ever a modern Iran.

From my Iranian friends, I know very few that are true pure blooded Persians, but my friends all consider themselves Iranians --whether ethnically Azeri, Armenian or Kurdi. 'Iran' is essentially is non-ethnicly linked name for the country.

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LevinK on February 5, 2006 - 1:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Considering the timeframe of the Iran "occupation", I'd rather compare it to the US occupation of California, Texas and New Mexico.
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Jack Greene on February 5, 2006 - 3:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
First, Italy invaded Ethiopia in 1935 and the League of Nations put sanctions on it, but they did not include oil. Italy had esentially no oil. It had not been discovered in her Libyan colony. By excluding oil they could not stop Italy from conquering Ethiopia. Oil sanctions might have worked and the actions not taken helped propel us towards World War II.

Doesn't this all sound eerily current?

There is an active Kurdish resistance movement active in Iran. Kurds are concentrated in the north-west side of Iran and are about 7-8% of the population. The Azeri people (24-25% of Iran) have been resisting an "Iranization" of their provinces for decades. There is also a Baloch movement in the south-east corner, but right now it is mostly directed towards Pakistan. They are a very small minority.  

People of Persian decent number about 50% of the population in Iran.

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LevinK on February 5, 2006 - 3:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
As far as I understand USA should encourage and support the Balkanisation of Iran like they did with Serbia and Iraq.

If this is your position I'd like to hear the arguments, especially what are those long-term contributions to the peace and prosperity this would bring.

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Gets IT on February 5, 2006 - 8:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Support them how?  Like they supported Afganistan in the 1980s?  Like they supported Saddam in the 80's?  Like they supported Viet Nam in the 60's?  Like Iran and Korea in the 50's (still at war, now with nukes)?  What's your definition of support?  What would be the final goal?  Set up separate countries for all of them, like Palestine?  Viet Nam only stabilized after the US retired.  Or do you think Viet Nam was an unusual case?  Sorry, I don't get it.
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LevinK on February 5, 2006 - 8:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Reading just the first sentence of one's post is a very bad habbit that I'm also trying to kick out :)
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Gets IT on February 5, 2006 - 9:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I really did read all your post, and didn't intend to direct my questions toward you personally.  I meant it for anybody attempting to answer your propositions to take a deep dip into the think tank before they did, but I do now see that it does look like I had you in my starscope.  <sorry>
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LevinK on February 5, 2006 - 10:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
No problem, happens all the time
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Jack Greene on February 6, 2006 - 12:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
LevinK,

The idea that nations are not divided on ethnic lines is a fault line that has impacted the modern world heavily. That is why it was so cool when Czechoslovakia simply became two separate states with no real problems. Unlike Yugoslavia. The Balkans is made even worse with little pockets of this or that person scattered haphazardly across the mountainous terrain.

Nigeria is another one. Not only does it include, because of colonial decisions made in the 19th century, different tribes, but you can throw in different religions too.

Personally, a Kurd nation state makes sense to me though Iran and Turkey would not be happy campers. That there are more Azeri's in Iran than in their home country is simply a problem waiting to happen.

We see it in the so-called progressive EU with the Basques, Catalonians, Corsica, Irish, etc. Heck, 10,000 Germans living in Denmark caused problems in 1933 and again in 1940.

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LevinK on February 6, 2006 - 11:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Actually things got worse both for Chech Republic and Slovakia after they split. After several years of high growth the Chechs experienced a financial crisis after which thinggs pretty much slowed down.

In the meantime Slovakia's development basicly stalled and the country started lagging behind. Slovakia has much less of an industrial base and resources than the Chechs and goes by with agriculture, tourism and services.

Both countries have high unemployment though lower than Poland. High unemployment seem to be a marking sign for countries that have been separated one way or another and could not attract foreign investments (mostly due to the instability, crime and corruption following the split). For example in Bosnia and Kosovo, unemployment is close to 40% and the most profitable (and wide-spread) business is drug and weapons traffic.

Considering the level of development of ME countries, splitting Iraq/Iran in pieces would be the mostly disastrous scenario for the people of these countries (well for Iraq it might be already too late). First they'll be shooting themselves over oil for X number of years. After they get tired of that (being quite below their starting point) they will probably have installed some much more despotic governments (remote-controlled by Washington or not) than their current ones. In other words the only thing worse than a despotic and corrupted government are 3 or 4 despotic and corrupted governments.

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Jack Greene on February 6, 2006 - 5:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
LevinK,

People make decisions that are not economically based. The two people, Czechs and Slovaks, wanted a country apart and they had a "history" going back to World War I. Certainly they were on opposite sides in World War II when one was occupied and the other a supportive puppet. I agree that they have had problems since, but for the most part they are doing O.K. and now belong to the EU.

I agree splitting Iran (and others) would cause chaos and impact the oil price/supply. But I wonder if we are simply puitting it off? It is not like there has not been strife there in the region that has little to do with the USA. The best time to do it would be at the end of some successful major watershed on the world stage. Maybe the end of a big war, or the day the USA declares it is not importing any oil except from North America?

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muhandis on February 6, 2006 - 2:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Gee, and on the same logic the balkanisation of the USA would be good too, North and South, or East and West. Just think what this might do to improve world peace! Yeh, sure...

If balkanisation is promotion of homogeneous societies, it is great way to create intolerant societies.  I can't agree it is a good thing.  I know too many people from the former Yugoslavia, and too many ruined lives.

I see balkanisation as cultural ignorance and intolerance.  

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Jack Greene on February 6, 2006 - 5:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
muhandis,

Balkanisation is, as you say, "cultural ignorance and intolerance". Your right.
But the older I get, the harder it is for me say that this person or that person should do this or that. The operative word there is should.

I think they should do what they want to, and nationalism is still a strong drive, mixed with that region's tribalism. It is hard for me to see how anyone (living in California) could object to blacks or latinos or whites together as friends and relatives, but they have a hard time in much of the Middle East to get along with the family in the next valley over who spells their name differently. I agree they are not smart thinking this way but "live and let live".

Also, what we are looking at are really small nations, and what is the practical result? The Basques and the Spanish have been fighting for going on 3 decades and with roots going much further back. And the Basques are not even Spanish by decent, but belong to the oldest race in Europe.

I guess when in doubt I come down on the side of freedom of choice.

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scorned by the cockroach on February 5, 2006 - 6:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
muhandis, Perhaps you know otherwise, but it is my understanding that the word Iran is the Farsi variant of what we westerners call Aryan, which was the ethnicity of the ancient people who came to be known as Persians.
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muhandis on February 6, 2006 - 2:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks for the challenge, I looked into it a bit further, and 'Iran' appears to be less neutral than I thought as the word indeed appears to derived from the old Persian for Persian, i.e. Aryan.  

So, much for being ethnically more neutral--thanks for clarifying the origin of the name.

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orangeman on February 5, 2006 - 6:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I thought Russians took Ajerbaizan away from Iran and made it a part of the Soviet Union.

Iran doesn't have a common border with Saudi Arabia; how can they occupy a piece of it?

Baluchis live in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Also Saddam tried to snatch Kuzestan away from Iran but the Iranian Arabs fought against Saddam.

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Jack Greene on February 6, 2006 - 12:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Orangeman,

Baloch's resistance is primarily in Pakistan where they have been blowing up fuel lines. But 2% of the population of Iran is Baloch.

From their web-site:

This is a Baloch site we are trying to tell the world about the inequality  and oppression of the Baloch people by Pakistan and its tyrant Punjabi institutions.

To the dominant Punjabis in Pakistan, who make up  58 percent of the population, it is unthinkable that the Baloch  Nation should have special claims to Balochistan, which  represents 48 percent of the land area of the country.

Both Islamabad  and Teheran view the sparsely settled expanses of Balochistan as a safety valve for surplus population, a source of badly needed materials, and an area of vital strategic importance over which the central government should rightfully hold undisputed sway.

Baloch and  other less Populace Nations will not be permitted to stand in the way of  Punjabis so-called modernization programs, though it means the plunder of the  Baloch National wealth.

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Jack Greene on February 6, 2006 - 12:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Orangeman,

More Azeri's of Ajerbaizan live in Iran than in the country with Baku as its capital.

Iran does not have any Saudi territory, but they do support the Shias who live predominately in the oil well areas of Saudi Arabia. One of the Gulf States is still upset over some minor islands in the Gulf that the Shah seized in the 1970's or so.

Kuzestan has had a series of bombings, the two latest being blamed by the Iranians on Britain (!). It is indeed Shia Arab.

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wkwillis on February 6, 2006 - 8:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Iran hasn't allowed the Arabs, the Kurds, the Armenians,the Azeris, the Baluchis, and whatever that other group next to Afghanistan is to vote for independence. We let Puerto Rico vote every year, and they always go for the tax free condominium deal we give them. Don't know why. They can be a state or independent, but they go with the condominium thing.
Now Hawaii would be interesting.
Or California. I'd vote for independence.
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Gets IT on February 6, 2006 - 3:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
According to my Puerto Rican friends, they prefer to remain separate in an effort to (try to) preserve their Hispanic heritage.  They have no intention of ever being #51 and would prefer outright independence if given the choice.  But if you ask me, I think they also recognize a considerable (financial) risk in actually cutting the ultimate umbilical cord.
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orangeman on February 5, 2006 - 6:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think he means Iran is like Ethiopia, a sovereign non-European monarchy that was bullied by a strong European military power.
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241 comments on World Nuclear Panel Refers Iran to the Security Council

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