In the case of SA, there seems to be the possibility of some of the major fields going into decline. Perhaps one of the major accomplishments of the SU will have been in delaying peak there thru failing to develop the economy to European, never mind US levels of oil consumption?

Russia may not be ready to go over a cliff in terms of geological ability to deliver. BUT, Russia is not SA. The Saudis are far more vulnerable to Western (US primarily) bullying, and therefore far more likely to deliver as much as they can.

This is in violent conflict with their self-interest which would be to throttle back production and allow price increases to compensate for reduced production.

Russia is in a far better position to protect its self-interest in this regard. The balance of incentives, in their case, IS to not be overly zealous in meeting world shortfalls. What do they gain? So in that sense, Russia too, for slightly different reasons, cannot in any way be thought of as way of postponing the day of reckoning.

Of course, if an addict becomes desperate enough, a very well defended source of the needed substance becomes a target in defiance of all ordinary calculations of risk v. gain.

Sing a happy tune.