221 comments on NYT says peak oil "almost certainly correct"
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221 comments on NYT says peak oil "almost certainly correct"
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<rant>
Re: "deserve all the acclaim they can get..."
Of course they do. Not the point. Matt Savinar has been outfront for a long time now. Defcon 1.
Maybe it's just ego, but when we do this stuff at TOD, I like to see it recognized for its quality in addition to what other good websites have provided in taking the lead in the past.... I know that TOD is relatively new in the world but still we've been around for a while now.
I think TOD offers up a valuable, honest and often technical kind of discussion that can not be found almost anywhere else on the web about peak oil. End of story. If some people (including the NY Times) can't figure that out, then they are just mediocre journalists. I believe--though I can't prove it--that our regular readers include Heinberg, Kunstler, Pickens, Raintree and many other "influential people" who lurk here but don't contribute. When I introduced myself to the local Boulder Relocalization Group, all I had to say was "Hi, I'm Dave from The Oil Drum". They knew who I was. They read (and still do) the website everyday. And many people who I met at ASPO-USA in Denver back in November read it too. Jesus, at this point Stuart is actually getting famous for the interesting, obscure but very illuminating posts he does. Hell, I even get the occasional e-mail.
Point is, I don't like it that TOD is neglected by some guy at the NY Times because he hasn't done his homework. Screw him.
</rant>
Relax. Whenever I go gasoline syphoning, I scrawl "The Oil Drum was here." onto the bumbers. So the time when the Times links to your site in a tiny sidebar will come sooner than later.
Thus far, my site has only gotten three visits from the Times link and two of those were from me testing the link.
Best,
Matt
No need to worry about TOD exposure. This site is so cross linked to the other sites that people will get here as a second or third link. The people that are inquisitive and scientific minded will stay and browse the details. The others will go back to the other sites for an easy summary of what they should do.
You can't force people to accept hard truths, only expose them to it.
You have done your part well. Give yourself a pat on the back and wait for the knowledge stored here to filter out.
Not this hombre. I'm here solely to increase my inclusive fitness.
BEst,
Matt
Is it because the site is so good that other people should read it thus making their lives better by better preparing for post peak?
Is it that you want more posters here to learn more stuff from?
Is it that TOD readers are somehow cooler?
Does it generate a 'tribal algorithm' feel-good camaraderie like a fraternity, or a club, or a sports team might?
Something else?
Any reason is valid, if we choose to feel that way, its because we like it, which is OK. Just interesting to think about the 'why' sometimes.
Hm, sounds like one of those DUETs (Deep Universal Eternal Truths) that Don Sailorman is always flogging ;)-
http://select.nytimes.com/membercenter/ts_extraform.html
Although, I guess you have to have Times Select to do it.
But if anybody here is looking to build a mass movement on a process that, even in the best case scenario, promises the deaths of billions due to war, starvation, and global wide cascading systems failures, you're brain has picked the wrong issue on which to pursue its Machiavellian desires.
This ain't the issue that is going to make you famous beyond a very tiny niche of people who attend relocalization meetings and perhaps the occassional billionaire Texas investor.
You're not going to get rich, famous, or be better liked as a result of being able to explain how cascading systems failures now all but guarantee catastrophe. One of the reasons I've largely stopped giving public talks about this (unless I'm getting paid) is that the message boils dow to this:
"Hey folks, the bad news is 3-to-6 billion of us are going to die. The good news is this is a great opportunity to start that vegetable garden you've always wanted!"
If you convey the facts honestly, that's what ends up being the message, even if you don't state it directly. So it's not the issue on which to pin your hopes at being popular.
I hope that isn't taken the wrong way.
Right now, I posit that less than 1 out of 100 people could explain to you what "peak oil" is. I doubt it will EVER get to beyond 2-to-3 out of 100. People are just going to blame their favorite scapegoat as the shit hits the fan. That's what millions of years of evolution has produced, sadly. In the past, we'd go kill somebody and take their stuff. That's pretty much how we're going to attempt to solve this too.
Best,
Matt
That's my point. If they mentioned TOD but not me I would have been upset too. But I have a lot of my social and financial capital invested in this. So my thinking would be:
"if they didn't mention me, I might be doing something wrong and if I am doing something wrong, book/dvd/newsletter purchases are going to drop and then my chances of purchasing the off-the-grid Ecobunker with the harem on some tropical island are shot to shit."
Most folks, including the posters here and elswhere are not thinking along these lines. They aren't selling anything and/or they are posting anonymously so they stand to gain no social capital from this in the real world.
So if you're doing just for the heck of it, then great. I post on some baseball boards even though I don't stand to gain socially or finanically from it. But if, in the back of my head, I was I'd need to reevaluate my strategies for inclusive fitness.
If you're doing in hopes of expanding your territory beyond a tiny niche of society, then maybe there are other issues which would provide a higher personal EROEI if that makes sense.
It's a Machiavellian way of looking at things, but the world's a Machiavellian place.
BEst,
Matt
If I want to read your stuff I can go to your web site. I prefer to read the insightful analyses of Dave, Stuart, HO, PG and the many commenters here. TOD is consistently one of the highest quality blog discussion boards I have found. I am worried that if you come here peddling your LATOC scenarios that TOD will fall into the same navel-gazing disasturbation that afflicts so many Peak Oil sites, especially yours. If you are looking for new victims to infect with your message of despair and hopelessness, I hope you will look elsewhere.
]. Population growth will be checked, one way or another, because we are running through our all our resources like a crack-addict on payday. Even strong conservation measures cannot win against our burgeoning mouths, faces, and grabbing hands.
Yet perhaps peak fossil fuels will be the impetus we need to get our sustainable house in order, but I stronly fear our momentum has already sent us past the point of no return(in terms of climate change, at the very least).
Well this chimp could back to his corner of the cage and start flinging monkey poo at you as you seem to be doing here. Fortunately, I have evolved past the territorial instincts you express here.
I want you to notice something: there are alpha males on TOD such as Stuart, PG, Dave, West Texas, and others. You, my friend, are at best a beta. Why is that?
Well, the alpha's like Stuart understand that a bit of sparring between among the alpha's is good for the overall management of the cage and the health of whole chimp clan. The sparring done here harpens the instincts for when we do battle with the cornucopian chimps who would like to invade our territory and take our females.
Your inability to understand this is why I suspect will remain a a beta for the rest of your days.
True alphas can spar to sharpen their skills without actually attacking each other. It's actually somewhat of cooperative and rather sophisticated exercise when you think about it.
Ask the alpha males here at the TOD (PG) and they will tell you I routinely toss leafy branches (links to TOD stoires) to them from my side of the cage. If the alpha's subscribed to your thinking, I'd stay on my side of the cage and they'd stay on their side. That, in the end, would lower our ability to defend against the cornacopian chimps who we now have on the run as evidenced by the recent NY Times article. Soon, we shall have their females too.
Of the 46 posts, I think probably 30 of those were in one thread where I and the alpha Stuart sparred over whether our predicament will descend into a giant contest of global poo-flinging or transition into more cooparative cage management. If anything, I suspect that attracted more chimps to this side of the cage as everybody likes to see a bit of sparring between alpha-males.
The other posts were me cracking jokes, so I don't see how that plays into your accusations.
Remember Halfin: the chimp who flings monkey poo at his fellow chimps ends up with poo all over him.
Anyways, have fun being a beta!
Best,
Matt
You've got my vote for quote of the year Matt. I suggest selling T-shirts and coffee mugs with the above words in neon font.
"In the past, we'd go kill somebody and take their stuff."
Yes, though we can be quite a cooperative species - the catch is that our Enviroment of Evolutionary Adaptedness was that of small groups, where, like the TV show Cheers, everyone knew your name. Once populations go beyond that, the trouble really begins.
We're FANTASTIC at cooperating within our own tribe in order to kill other tribes
That's Human History 101 for you. (Tragically)
I supposse this can be channelled into positive action. Mabye we could cooperate between TOD, LATOC, Po.com and do a board invasion of some cornocopian discussion board.
Best,
Matt
I started a peak oil site back in October 2003 (if you do a Spanish language search for "peak oil", Crisis Energética would come in first position). I am a technical journalist (IT) and I did that because I always have felt the need of communicating with others, specially when there's something important to say. In our forums, we have a thread called "New users, introduce yourselves here", almost everyone contributing to that thread there thanks the founders and users of the site saying things like "I was feeling alone, I thought I was nuts!, I needed to find people with the same concerns as yours". Of course it helps being the largest peak oil site in Spanish (English continues to be a barrier for a lot of Spanish Internet users).
Our visitors base is smaller than TOD or LATOC (btw, thanks again Mat, you're sending us lots of users), but our site has, as today, 1829 registered users (the majority of them doesn't contribute, but I suppose they find useful to receive the daily digest), and our forums have already passed the 20K messages mark.
I know we could do "better" than that, in the sense of getting more traffic and visitors (we hover between 2k and 4,5k unique daily users), but we have chosen not to go over the board with the issue (being a self taught journalist helps a bit also). Before starting the site, I went to see a geology professor from my local university, he's the only Spanish member of ASPO, and a frequent contributor to the main Spanish newspapers (when they let him). He gave me a very good advise, very similar to something I have read today here at TOD (thanks NC):
So that's the way we do it, perhaps is slower, but the people who finally come aboard and contribute are the best ones. And I think TOD is that kind of site also (well, I think TOD surpasses us in many aspects!).
Lucky I. Just another million bucks today.
Thank you for a good job.
Andrei.
So, Andrei, as a Russian oil industry 'insider', can you give us any more information about the state of Russian oil production now and in the near-term future?
It's be interesting to see how the NY Times article increases traffic on the PO sites. Will this be an inflection point?
Thank about it this way: I get the task of filtering out the crazies.
Best,
Matt
If it's not listed, it must have been intentionally left out. Maybe they didn't want links that were too scientific/technical.
- ASPO - peakoil.net
- LAOC
- peakoil.org
- hubbertpeak.com
- Wikipedia
- peakoil.com
...47. TOD NYC
ASPO come is first if I search: "peak oil"
Maybe I'm behind the times.
The oddities of google will never cease to amaze me.