The Oil Drum | Sunday Open Thread

70 comments on Sunday Open Thread

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Biologyfool on March 13, 2006 - 8:26pm

So much for Hubbert's curve for Mexico?

"Mexico has made a deep-water oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico that could be larger than the country's giant Cantarell offshore field, President Vicente Fox said on Monday."

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8GAVFN84.htm

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

tom deplume on March 13, 2006 - 10:05pm

Since you cite a politician as the source then pro grano salis is called for.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

BabyPeanut on March 13, 2006 - 10:16pm

So now all we need are hurricane-proof off-shore rigs and we're set.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

BabyPeanut on March 13, 2006 - 10:36pm

Expansión cites President Fox saying the magnitude of the deposit is not known.

Unknown amount of oil found somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico? Give me a break!

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

MUDLOGGER on March 14, 2006 - 11:22am

Well. Lets assume Mr. Fox is telling the truth and the world is endowed with a Cantarell II. The frequency of elephant finds is now such, that a Cantarell II will not save the day in respect to depletion and production flows unless Saudi et al are capable of offsetting declining production flows from Non Opec and probably Opec reserves.

A Cantarell II will help Mexico delay the day of crisis, and probably the US. If it is of sufficient size, broght to production quickly enough and Production flows can be maintained (ie the Saudis can do what we dont think they can do) Then Peak Day may be a little further off.

If a Cantarell II exists, then the danger is that it will act as a sign for the cornucopians and not be seen to be a sign that we are drinking in the last chance saloon

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

westexas on March 14, 2006 - 12:36pm

Excellent Energy Bulletin Article by Khebab

http://www.energybulletin.net/13855.html

Mexico's Ability to Export Oil
"Khebab", GraphOilogy

Khebab's technical analysis demonstrates the high likelyhood of a precipitous drop in Mexican oil exports from a country near its peak in production, with a growing population and appetite for oil.
published March 15, 2006.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

westexas on March 14, 2006 - 1:04pm

Khebab's analysis indicates a Qt of 74 Gb for Mexico. They are just about at the 50% mark. Note that the internal Pemex report quoted in a recent WSJ article suggested that Cantarell could be facing decline rates in excess of 40% per year.

It's going to take a long time to drill all of the developmental wells in the new offshore discovery. So, even with a new significant discovery, it's quite likely that Mexico is starting a permanent and irreversible decline--as predicted by the HL model.

Also, keep in mind that the world is using--from nuclear + fossil fuel sources--the energy equivalent of one Gb of oil every five days.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.