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82 comments on Gas Emergency Looms

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westexas on March 13, 2006 - 8:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I read an estimate that the Gulf Stream delivers something like 27,000 times as much energy to the UK as all of the power plants combined.   What is scary is that the predictions regarding rapid climate change in the following 2004 Fortune article seem to be coming true.    

The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare

http://zfacts.com/p/224.html

The climate could change radically, and fast.
That would be the mother of all national security issues.
By David Stipp, FORTUNE Magazine, February 9, 2004
The Complete Report to the Pentagon

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skeptic on March 14, 2006 - 6:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
What rapid climate change?

 All that happened is that after a run of unusually warm winters we now have a winter with a late cold snap. Sods law (if it can go wrong it will go wrong - the toast laways lands on the carpet marmalade side down)  has resulted in it happening at the worst possible time, compounding a number of other negative factors.

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londanium on March 14, 2006 - 7:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And it's not that we've had a cold winter as such - it's just that after an extended run of very mild winters leading to very early springs we've had something resembling a winter. Nothing severe, mind you, just daytime temperatures consistently below 6C.

In the late autumn there were hysterical predictions flying around of a severe winter like 1963; if that had happened then we would have been in crisis mode back in January, even without the problems that have developed with the Rough shutdown.

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Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 5:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
was it 63 or 66?
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Essex Land Rover Man on March 15, 2006 - 10:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Definitely 63. England won the world cup in 66.
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Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 5:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There's been some estimates of a 90% probability of a Gulf Stream shutdown occurring within the next 20 years, which does not mean it won't happen tomorrow.  Check the weather headlines from the 1966 to get an idea of what the least of this could mean.  One effect;  The many overhead hi voltage transmission lines that have been built since 1966 would not not be expected to survive very well and power outages would be massive.  Effect 2;  property prices will rise in Spain.
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Magnus Redin on March 14, 2006 - 6:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Why would extreme cold be a problem for power lines? As far as I know it mostly means that you can load them more due to better cooling.

I know that salt spray along sea costs can be a problem and ice buildup in humid slightly below freezing conditions but please explain the problem with cold weather.

Sweden will be ok as long as we get a few good summer months with a reasonable growing season. Wonder if a shut down gulf stream would get us wishing for more greenhouse gasses?

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Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 7:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Supposedly it is the weight of ice and the increased wind drag.  Maybe the cold temps contract the lines reducing the catenary and increase the stress too.  Don't know.  During 1963 or 6 there was apparenty massive power outages in the UK due to downed power lines.  Off hand, I would expect icing to be a greater problem for the UK than Sweden.  Or, perhaps the reporter got the hiV lines confused with falling tree damage to local lines.  The problem is expected to be much worse simply because of the amount of lines that have been added since then.  I have no personal experience, so I'm just taking the report I heard at face value.  It was on BBC sometime last year.  Maybe we can search for it if needed.
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PhilM on March 14, 2006 - 7:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I have not seen this 90% probability? Source?
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Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 8:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well... don't remember exactly where, as I said above.  I'm, looking for it.  It appears to be of the same origin as the excerpts appearing here,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/gulf_stream.shtml

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Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 8:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I believe it was from a climate model that has been run by the MET Office itself.
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Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 8:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Found the 1963 winter story.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/devon/weather/the_big_freeze.shtml

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Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 8:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
GOT IT,

OK. Would you believe "50% in the next 100"??  And a "low" probability in the next 20.  What's low?  I don't know.  If its 1 out of 2 in the next 100, couldn't it easily be 1 in 4 in the next 20?  Sounds high to me in any case, especially if  you consider the Gulf of Mexico just experienced a supposedly 500 year wave height.  And, the a typical model of storm frequency of return, it does not say that it CAN'T happen in ANY particular year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/bigchilltrans.shtml

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Gets IT on March 14, 2006 - 9:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If these things follow a line plot of Probability on the log of Time, it is 25% chance in the next 10 years.
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82 comments on Gas Emergency Looms

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