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76 comments on Polar ice cap

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kevinM on March 14, 2006 - 4:08am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I disagreee with you Stuart. I think the
situation is actually a lot worse than the
Independent article suggests. The discussion
has been centred around the area of sea ice,
but in fact the thickness of the ice is just
as crucial and there have been several reports
over the years indicating that the ice is very
much thinner than it was two or three decades
ago.

You say that positive feedback mechanisms have
been operating since the 1950s, but surely the
effect of the positive feedback is intensifying
almost annually. Sure there have been a few
years when the Arctic ice has grown on the
previous year's figure, but for the past three
years the loss of ice has been progressively
greater. Wasn't it around 8% last September?
In simple terms doesn't that equate to an
8% reduction in reflective area on 2004?

There is also the matter of the recently
reported sudden surge in CO2 level in the
Arctic region (as yet unexplained, but maybe
the result of release of CO2 from warmer ocean
of even tundra release.

I believe we are witnessing the effect of
synergistic mechanisms (Greenland ice sheets,
tundra emissions, warmer Arctic waters,
thinner sea ice -breaking up and drifting away,
lower sea ice area) all working together to
bring about a catastrophic meltdown of northern
regions within a couple of decades.

And pretty well every action by every citizen in
the industrialised world is adding to the
problem by way of out of control CO2 emissions.

And not one government on the planet is even
thinking seriously about the problem, (except
maybe a couple of Pacific islands) though the
Blair government makes a pretence of it by
talking about cutting emissions, whilst planning
additional airport runways for expected surges
in airline travel.

The disconnection between policy and reality
is nothing short of staggering.

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mcgowanjm on March 14, 2006 - 10:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
synergistic mechanisms

or Complexity Theory

To summarize:

Like a sandpile, gradually adding grains of sand
will have little/no effect on the pile untl the Critical
Grain hits it causing an avalanche.

We're seeing the flickering of the Flourescent Tube
Light before it goes "critcial" or out.

James

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SocraticGadfly on March 14, 2006 - 11:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You want something else of serious concern?

Winter in parts of Canada has been as much as 6 degrees above normal -- six degrees Celsius, that is, or about 11 degrees Fahrenheit.

Alberta, Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories were more than 6 degrees above normal, the story says.

Just a jet stream aberration? At least in part due to global warming?

Or, a climatic tipping point from global warming?

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PeakOilPete on March 14, 2006 - 2:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
or is the jet stream aberation a symptom of climate change?  to me "global warming" is (generally) a misnomer that allows the head-in-the-sand types to argue against human-impact climate change because, while some places get hotter,  others get cooler.  selective tree vision rather than the forest: the american way.   and there appears to be evidence of your "climatic tipping point from global warming" almost everywhere one looks.
oh, and we're running out of oil.
-pop
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SocraticGadfly on March 14, 2006 - 7:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And another problem:

NASA says ozone is contributing to Arctic warming.

Globally, ozone accounts for perhaps one-seventh of the global warming and climate change that carbon dioxide does, Shindell said. However, a new study of climate change over the past 100 years indicates that ozone may be responsible for as much as 50 percent of the warming in the Arctic zone.

Question: While CFCs continue to be phased out, how much ground-level ozone from things such as automobile exhaust survives to be a factor in this cycle?

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Dan Ur on March 14, 2006 - 4:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
6.5 billion people can not be said to have no impact on any system no matter how big that system is.  Unless we are a Dyson Sphere, which we aren't.  Dyson sphere is a creature make construct completely enclosing a single Star, It is a work of Sci-fi  Though if there were one out there. only 6.5 billion people might not be able to influence it to much.

But on earth we are and have been able to influence our world no matter who you are we impact the rest of us in some way.

For thousands of years we never got beyond a few 100's of millions of people then bang!  We hit 1 billion, then 3, now 6.5 billion give or take a few 100 million who counts, who can guess the exact number.  We all make an impact, not just the guys who drive to work in a single car,  but the mom who burns the last tree within walking distance for the meal she fixes her kids.  

Reduce us all to burning trees and we become one big Easter Island,  Pretty fast too!!   There is nothing simple anymore, There is to many people here to make anything simple.  Even death is no longer simple,  Not that I wish anyone dead.  I am not painting a doom and gloom story, yet I know how some of you will take it.  We are living in a section of time that is both scary and exciting.  And can be happy too.

 

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76 comments on Polar ice cap

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