I think the current situation can mostly be explained by one single mistake - failure to recognise and accept that North Sea gas would peak in 2000 then fall away as fast as it has.  If the peak had been 2005 then we would still be exporting today and lots of storage and import infrastructure would be in place by the time we became a gas importer in 2010.

The more recent mistakes have been small compared to that past mistake.

The challenge we face now is two-fold. We don't have the infrastructure (pipelines, LNG, storage) to be a major importer and the market doesn't have a several billion cubic meters to spare at reasonable prices.  The infrastructure will be there within a few years, there are new or upgraded pipelines from Belgium, Norway and Netherlands and LNG at Milford Haven all due by 2008 with several 10s of billion cubic meter capacity.  There still looks to be a long term storage shortage though.  Whether the market will supply enough gas to maximise this new infrastructure is far more uncertain though.

Hello Chris,

You are actually (also) refering to the Bacton-Balgzand pipeline http://www.bblcompany.com/

As a resident of Den Helder, NL, the place where they want the pipeline to penetrate the dunes is 7 miles south from where I live.

from the above site: "The section of the onshore pipeline that crosses the dunes of Noord-Holland will require special attention. The 'horizontal drilling method' will be used for that purpose. This method makes it possible to lay the pipeline under the dunes without damaging the landscape. In September and October 2005 the execution of the drilling started. As the drilling got stuck, the drilling will have to be done once again."

Point is that 2 tries to drill through the dunes failed. Presumably because they struck some WWII German-build bunkers. At present the factual site looks messy; will see if I can get you some pictures of the site in the weekend.

They were not allowed to do the drilling in winter, as that is when the dunes are most vulnerable. They will resume work this spring.

Due to the above the entire project is delayed, with, I think, obvious  consequences for the UK gas situation.

Please note the irony that Hitler is still succesfull at harming the British.

To my knowledge the Ormen Lange field offshore Norway will start flowing by fall 2007 and will gradually build towards a plateau by 2009 of approximately 20 Bcm/a, and most of this is intended for the UK market.

In addition a project to prolong the economical life of Statfjord includes a new pipeline link (Tampen Link) to be connected to the UK system. This development could add 4 Bcm/a for the UK market by fall 2007.

As for the cotractual year 2005 (now) STATOIL has a contract of 5 Bcm/a with Centrica, this in addition to 3-4 Bcm/a from NCS delivered through the Frigg system and landed in St. Fergus.

All of this could add a total of 25-30 Bcm/a from Norway by 2009, or 25-30 % of present UK nat gas consumption.

Further as I know there is under construction a new pipeline from Russia (crossing the Baltic Sea) that could be operational by 2010, and has the potential according to the owners to add up to 30 Bcm/a to the European and UK market.

The present tightness in the UK market is mostly due to the fire at one of the Rough installations, making it inoperable till May, that presently acts as the main storage facility for the UK market.

By browsing the historical data from DTI (Department of Trade and Industry)I found that actually UK have had sufficient flexibility in its nat gas supplies system.

Given the present situation, it would take a lengthy cold snap to completly empty the operable storage facilities. After all we are heading for spring and (hopefully) warmer weather.