37 comments on CNN/USAToday/Gallup: There are "major problems..." (oh, if you only knew...)
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37 comments on CNN/USAToday/Gallup: There are "major problems..." (oh, if you only knew...)
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I know that you have a good idea what has been going on economically the last few years. Deflation has become unacceptable, yet deflationary periods are a necessary part of a stable economic cycle. Things have got too far out of kilter, the necessary adjustment is not permissible. The rope stretches thinner and thinner, higher and higher.
Some things make this situation unique. Globalisation, de facto $ reserve currency, fungible oil / energy, US consumer of last resort financed by 80% of global savings, possible imminent resource constraints, I could mention more.
Probably the most significant is the dependence of the $ and US economy on foreign support. This could change in a day. When it does the current global economic and financial systems undergo a phase shift. We really have no idea what will happen then.
Very, very likely the $ and US economy will plunge. The interdependencies are truly scary. The Fed will inflate, probably hyperinflate since it is hard to see how mere inflation would suffice. It then becomes a question of whether that inflation can be managed back to something reasonable within a viable time and economic stability gradually recovered. Unlikely. If not then money printing will probably fail and deflation ensue since currency is likely to lose nearly all value - at some point printing paper ('money') becomes meaningless, severe deflation becomes almost inevitable then.
It will be different this time: we have got too good at avoiding the relatively little shocks (necessary adjustments). Now there is probably no choice: we must walk the tightrope and hope everything conspires to allow us to reach stability at the other end, going back is no longer an option. That chance is improbably small, and the fall is almost inconceivably great. I don't know if anyone can realistically envisage the result without being branded insane. I can see what happens but I am not yet brave enough to stare it in the face, nor are you.
I will leave you a last thought to ponder: if uncle Ben and the deflation fighters fail, if their bag of clubs don't work, how bad might the result be?
Should deflation occur despite multiplying the money supply by a factor of ten or a hundred or a thousand, what then?
Hm. Are you familiar with the TORRO scale for tornado intensity? It is an extension of the Beaufort scale. A T1 tornado has winds of 55-72 mph, pretty Mild as tordados go. A T5 tornado has winds of 137-160 mph, and here we find heavy motor vehicles levitated, let's call that Intense. Now a T10 tornado with winds of 270-299 mph finds entire frame houses lifted from foundations and locomotives carried some distance, let's call that Super. To date the most severe tornado observed is a T11 (1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak in Moore, Oklahoma).
Well, now, how strong can tornados get? Nobody knows. Probably at least T12 and maybe higher than that.
Let's rate the Great Depression as a T10 by analogy. Then my guess for a worst case future deflationary scenario is T12+.
BTW hyperinflations do not last long. Mere triple digit inflation can go on for years and years, but not hyperinflation. I cannot recall a case where deflation followed hyperinflation. Can anybody?
Agreed that hyperinflations are brief, and that I don't know a case where extreme deflation has followed hyperinflation. But the current economic situation is pretty unique in many ways, the imbalances are in uncharted territory, in the past adjustments have always occured before this point has been reached. In a sense we (eg. the Fed, the markets) have become too good at palliative care. Perhaps the (economic) patient will pull through, perhaps it won't.
The future is uncertain.
The tightrope walker may be able to dance on piano wire; stranger things have happened.
But because of the unusually great magnitude of the uncertainties involved, I think anybody who puts financial bets on a future deflation is taking an immense chance of self-destruction of personal wealth.
BTW, I'm not borrowing to take advantage of what I think will be marked and severe rates of increase in inflation over the next ten years. I do not know what is going to happen. Nobody does.
But chances are it will be nasty.
Or worse.
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Brussee.html
In one sense I think he's right but I expect the Fed's clubs may postpone it one last time resulting in significant inflation, possibly hyperinflation, before the inevitable, unavoidable, Greater Depression ensues.