Why have so many blue collar jobs moved overseas over the past 30 years?  Not because "Americans didn't want that kind of job."  It was because people would do it cheaper overseas.

No.

It was because one group of Americans could capture more welth if they laid off this group of Americans and hired that group of non-Americans to provide goods and services to those Americans who still had employment.

Where did China's capital come from? American investment. Who gets hurt if China revalues as demanded by the US government? American firms exporting fromm China.

Try this. Go to the nearest office building and ask people entering or leaving if they would consider a farm or factory job if they earned the same pay as they currently do. I guarentee not a soul over 30 would consider it, unless they don't understand how hard it is. Working in a factory, or a farm is very hard work, boring and dirty.

On the other side, go to a working farm or a factory and ask the workers if they would trade their current job for an office job at the same pay. I bet the majority would consider switching.

The reason for choosing a profession career isn't just about financial benefits. Most educated people want careers, not a repetitive, back breaking job.

What is it that you do for a living? Do you work in a factory or on a farm? Have you ever tried a labor intensive job for more than a month? (No need to reply, just think about it.)

>Why have so many blue collar jobs moved overseas over the past 30 years?  Not because "Americans didn't want that kind of job."  It was because people would do it cheaper overseas.

Labor costs are certainly a strong reason for manufacturing jobs leaving the US. However, the trend started in the early 1950s as more an more Americans seeked out professional jobs. This was way before jobs began moving overseas. You can research the facts on the Labor department web site and see that the since the 1950s people seeking employment in farming and manufacturing has been in a steady decline.

As for the insanity, America didn't vote for it. The last 2 elections were rigged, remember? And as we all know the system is broke, no one has the guts to fix it, and gassing about it here changes nothing. Let's move on.

There is a way to avoid the pain of a second great depression. And we're doing it right now. Let the developing world continue to manufacture goods. Let America continue to manufacture debt. Let the foreign exchange rates be fixed by strongarming foreign central banks into inflating their own currency.

And let's all continue breeding like yeast in the barrel. Invent ways to turn all biomass into oil. Shovel what's left into the oceans along with all our other toxins. This way to the supercriticality ...

Mortality is a small price to pay for existence -- Bob Geldof.

True, teh only cities with unique cultural valeus worth preserving.

Really, we need to start evacuating those energy hungry Great Lakes states whilst we have the fuel to do so.  MASSIVE winter heating requirements !  Do you knwo that it sometimes gets down to 0 F (-18 C) in Chicago AND they use MASSIVE amounts of energy removing snow almost every winter ?

Chicago is clearly not sustainable. Too much winter heating, too much snow removal.

Actually, Peak Oil awareness hurts your chances of survival at least in the short run which is what your brain prioritizes. (If you don't survive the short term, you never get the chance tos survive the long term.)

Think about it: once you are aware of these issues you become somewhat of an outcast even if only to a small degree.  I have trouble, for instance, celebrating or enthusiasitcally discussing my friends' plans for big homes in exurbia and 401Ks I believe will be worthless someday. Would not have had any trouble bonding with people over these issues/discussions prior to finding out about Peak Oil.

I can fake enthusiasm for my friends "accomplishments" okay, but that's never as good as being sincerely enthused. Thus, I am actually less able to socially integrate into my peer group (my tribe) today as compared to my pre-peak oil days.

Back in the hunter gatherer days, this type of effect could have had disastorous results. Worse that happens to me in the modern day is (if I was practicing law) maybe me and the other lawyers working on a case don't have the same level of camradarie we'd have if I shared their interests and outlooks.  That level of camadarie (morale) could have an effect on our success in the courtroom and in fact would all other things being equal. But worse case scenario, the other side eats our lunch.

Back in the old days however, that lack of camradarie could be the difference between life and death. Worse case back then was some animal ate us for lunch:

http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,18262331%255E912,00.html

Hence, your brain tends to filter out any information (such as Peak Oil) that makes it difficult for you to integrate with your tribe as failing to do so lowers your chances of surviving in the short term.

As far as political predictions, I think you are correct: thing is 99.9% of the people making predictions these days are people like you who say all will be fine albeit there might be somb bumps. Just turn on the MSM.

Best,

Matt

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Halfin,

Great then (at least for my argument not for our future), that means the scenarios I've put forth are most likely to be accurate models of the future as my site sits atop the google rankings for peak oil and for oil!

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=peak+oil
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=oil

Best,

Matt

But buying a home in the Arizona exurbs is not an attempt to solve a group problem. It's a selfish, rational attempt to satisfy individual preferences about home location, comfort, sunshine, humidity, temperature, amenities, culture, etc.

Homeowners in Florida, Texas, Louisiana have known for decades about the prospects for severe huricane damage, and Californian's know more than they care to about the San Andreas fault and the inevitable 'big one', but these certainties haven't stopped them from taking the risk of home ownership in these areas.

Peak oil and water shortages are to these land owners in Arizona, a problem for someone else, in some other era.

Anyone reading what he said realizes he stated that certain conditions could lead to the outcome he described. For example, a cold winter. He didn't predict a cold winter, he said if there was one, we could be in trouble with our gas supply, and he was right.

We just happened to have the warmest winter on record, so the conditions didn't apply. His warning (NOT PREDICTION)was not disproved at all. In England, where there are severe natl gas problems right now, such a scenario is playing out as we speak. Now the politicians are saying "no one could have forecast this" when indeed some did but few listened. Just like the levees in N.O. Every year prior to 2005, you could have said those warnings about the levees were hysterical, when in reality the experts were right but the big hurricane had simply not hit - a matter of luck.

One person who did call the top quite well was Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School of Business professor of finance and author of "Stocks for the Long Run," who wrote a column in the Wall Street Journal on March 14th, 2000 titled "Why Big Cap Tech Stocks Are A Sucker's Bet."  The fact that the column appeared just four days after the NASDAQ peaked was pure luck, but the column was prescient nonetheless.  At the time of publication, Siegel was not an unknown but a highly respected professional in his field, and his reputation has remained intact to this day (his latest book is "The Future for Investors").

As a value investor and disciple of Warren Buffet for the past twenty-five years, I don't put much credence in the strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis.  I mention this because your comments, Halfin, with regard to the "wisdom of crowds" and markets seem to indicate that you do believe in all three forms: weak, semi-strong, and strong.  In other words, excess profits are exceedingly difficult to obtain no matter what you do, and technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and even access to insider information are all of no value.  Is it fair to say that you believe in the EMH lock, stock and barrel?

Given that there exist some investors such as Buffet who have consistently demonstrated the ability to generate excess profits over several decades, would you entertain the notion that a sufficiently knowledgeable investor, operating apart from the crowd, could generate excess profits in the oil markets?

Great, I feel better already.

Forgive me if, instead of popping the underdosed cyber-prozac you just offered in this post, I simply try to position myself away from the oncoming horrors as best I can.

Best,

Matt

"The Lizards would be saved, he said, If they could be enlightened by the writings of the Helping Friendly Book. In all of Prussia only one existed, and Wilson had declared that any person who possesed it was a crook."

--Phish

Assumptions can be made, but the number required to come up with a solution (future scenario) are so large that some of the assumptions must surely be wrong (but which ones ?)

I have some money now.  I would like to retain it's usefulness and value.  Given the above, what to do ?

Multiple solutions (known as diversification).  Each choice works well with one or more likely scenarios, but few with all possible scenarios.

Just cut Dave a check for (insert Dr. Evil style laugh) $125 for a guest post on my site. Plan on doing that more in the future as profits dictate. Wouldn't be able to compensate people for their work unless I was generating profits in the first place!

Same thing for my bulletins. The writers aren't getting rich by any stretch of the imagination but if our licenses our renewed for 12-to-18 months, the price per word will be comparable to what they would get from The Rollling Stone, albeit paid out over a longer period of time.

You want to hate on me for paying my authors, beyootch? Or is it only okay for the spinelss hacks in the MSM to get paid?

Best,

Matt