47 comments on Of rigs and pipelines
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GAIA Host Collective
But I don't think that's the reason Russia prefers China. I suspect Russia sees China as a better potential ally than Japan. Many are expecting China to be the next superpower. Militarily and economically.
During the 1930s, when Japan was heavily engaged in its imperialist expansionary adventure in China, Russia found it necessary to maintain a very large troop presense along the border between Manchuria and the far eastern parts of Siberia, as well as in Mongolia (then a de facto protectorate of the USSR). For a very long time,Japan coveted the resource-rich areas of Siberia and had dreams of slicing off a nice chuck for itself.
It is not too widely known that in October 1939 Russia and Japan came to blows in the Mongolian desert in a place called Nomanhan. The Russians came out ahead this time around. This was no minor border skirmish, as the Japanese had something like 20,000 casualties and the Russians roughly 15,000. While the pressure on Russia eased after the Japanese started fighting the US in the Pacific, it was still necessary for Russia to maintain many divisions in the area in spite of their being badly needed on the Eastern front against the Germans.
In fact, the Japanese Army and Navy were bitter rivals: the Army favored attacking Russia to split off a piece of Siberia, while the Navy was in favor of taking control of the Pacific to get at the resources of Southeast Asia.
So, the relations between the two countries was never good and probably still isn't.
They seem to think the old Russia and China vs. the U.S. dynamic is alive and well. I think there's something to that. Japan has no real military, and they're in our pocket, anyway. If I were Russia, I'd court China, too.
Now the talking heads are lamenting the failure of "free trade." Opening up to China was supposed to tame them by showing them the benefits of trade. Instead, it's had the opposite effect. They are getting more aggressive, not less.
Frankly, it doesn't look too good for the home team unless we get to work real fast on both conservation and alternatives, as Hirsch says. In this regard, the recent strong statements by Richard Lugar are totally on point. I have to believe that people are going to see this in the not too distant future.
So I look at the ascendency of China and wonder if the Next Dynasty comes from SIZE, or from Having the 'Right Idea for the time period in question' (IE, England combining their Market Systems with the need for Naval Dominance reinforced by the history of Norman and Spanish incursions)
"The right MANAGEMENT Idea for that period.." since, as I re-read it, I'm looking at 'Power Conduits' that operate largely Extra-nationally, like Wal-Mart or Exxon.. They are leveraging the power-sources wherever they are, against the financial resources, whereever they are.. dependent, of course, upon the ability to transport the goods from the one to the other. But aren't corporations in many ways competing at the scale of the nations for resources and influence, with the 'Power Management Idea' of doing so without the Ball-and-chain of a fixed piece of land or a population to have to answer to?
The US software industry flourished for decades with no patent protection.
Computers have provided the first manufactured good that's literally too cheap to meter: the transmission of data by the megabyte around the world. Business models that take advantage of the unlimited-sum nature of data copying will do better than those that try to fight it. For example, some book publishers are finding that putting complete books online for free increases sales of those books, and Megatunes.com is doing the same with music.
For more of my thoughts on intellectual property, click here.
Chris
John Perry Barlow of the Grateful Dead would seem to agree with you in this. He's said that their open policy about bootlegging was a boon to their success, not a drag on it. I have been looking at the increasing amount of art that is finalized as 'Data', and therefore doesn't exist as a unique material object. There is no 'Original'. What does that do to Arts Auctioning, and then what does that mean for 'Ownership' of art at all? Would people who could have just 'one of an unlimited number' of copies of a great Cezanne, a CB DeMille or one of Mozart's or Shakespeare's Manuscripts, etc, without ever getting to be that 'King of the Hill' who has 'THE ONE'..
.. and is universal access to one's very own source of power-generation (Solar, Wind, etc) just as great a threat to the 'Selective-Ownership Society' as that of our Art being so 'unownable'.
It's unfortunate that parts of Capitalism tend to succeed from conditions of imbalance, because it creates a demand by the capitalist society FOR imbalance. It's a disincentive for cooperation, trust and peace. Now sure, to do business with each other, these same conditions have to be present to some degree, but PROFIT is won by leveraging divisions. Feeding from low cost supplies, offered to places with high-priced demand. War Profiteering has never had it so good, and it's hard to keep the labor costs down if population gets too plentiful.
I think Russia is merely bowing to the inevitable, though I'm sure they don't see it that way.
Nature (and politics) abhors a vacuum, and that's what Siberia is. The Chinese are already "invading" it, and if they're patient, they can probably take it without a fight. Given all its problems (demographic meltdown, AIDS, tuberculosis, alcoholism, corruption, ...), Russia won't be able to resist very effectively.
OTOH, China faces demographic problems of its own. They will all be living in interesting times.
Of course they have the resources to do it.