Bingo.  This is a classic case of something we want to measure (the price of oil futures contracts) being heavily influenced by things (natural catastrophes, politics) that are impossible to quantify.

I expect we'll see much greater volatility in the near future, in part because the Bad People have likely figured out how easy it is to cause the West economic pain by staging a high profile (even if unsuccessful) attack on the oil infrastructure.

This this piece on the former Saudi oil minister seems germane to all of this as well...
Until we're all independent of oil?? Is that what he said? When does he expect that to happen--after the dieoff?