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101 comments on Tertzakian: A Review by Dave

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learning on March 24, 2006 - 2:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I have read it and The Coming Economic Collapse by Stephen Leeb, both within the last 2 weeks. Tertzakian's book is excellent. Dave's review is also excellent and provides a concise outline. If you find anything of interest at all in Dave's review you should buy the book. As someone new to the Peak Oil discussion this book (along with this website) gave me a wonderful lesson in the subject. Although as Dave points out Tertzakian is not in the "Imminent Threat" camp it is not because of an unrealistic assessment of the current situation. He is optimistic that IF a large number of things happen we can muddle through but its hard to imagine anyone not seeing those IFs as huge. I wonder if Tertkazian himself may be closer to Dave's view and is trying to find acceptance of the book by a public that would write it off as another alarmist warning. If so, his book might be read by lots of people who might otherwise be inclined to continue to ignore this issue.

There is nothing wrong with Leeb's book but it is not nearly as strong as Tertkazian's. However everyone should read chapter 5 about "groupthink" in markets and society in general. That chapter is worth the price of the book. Groupthink is what causes so many to avoid the Peak Oil issue. It is also what causes so many that recognize the PO issue to demand that the government do something for us.

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Halfin on March 24, 2006 - 6:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Groupthink does happen in markets and in society, but it arguably happens to an even greater degree in groups like this one. People come here and to other Peak Oil sites every day and fill their minds with information that confirms their existing beliefs. Listening only to like-minded people they become even more convinced that they are right. It is a classic example of groupthink.

(I should note, this doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong, but rather that this is not the best methodology to figure out if they're right. And even when they are right, it will often lead to over-confidence, a universal human failing which groupthink makes even worse.)

Everyone here should read JD's Peak Oil Debunked web site. It provides a good counterweight to the constant stream of reinforcing messages you get on the Peak Oil sites. Another couple of good sites: Lou Grinzo's The Cost of Energy; Lou is an economist who accepts the basic Peak Oil model but provides good, rational analysis of the situation; and of course James Hamilton's Econbrowser, which is often referenced around here.

The best defense against groupthink is exposing yourself regularly to people with different opinions. The truth is, that's why I'm here... ;-)

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step back on March 24, 2006 - 6:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Halfin,
Very good point about the "Groupthink" thing.
It's a pity that economists do not expose themselves to thought process outside the framework of "the markets will provide". The real question is, what will Mother Nature provide?
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sampo on March 24, 2006 - 7:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Econbrowser is okay. i read it regularly.

JD is a total moron who argues sloppily and distorts data to fit his view. Not worth anyone's time really.

Lou is...well, lou is an economist...and a technophile...

What other sources do you have for us Halfin? I'd love to expose my self to other views, but most of them are idiots.

More from my worthless pile:
Gristmill
Treehugger
GreenCarCongress
Worldchanging
..

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Calorie on March 24, 2006 - 8:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I regularly read the Wall Street Journal op-ed pages and the Forbes columnists.  With the exception of some of the financial columnists in Forbes, both publications editorially reject peak oil.  Individuals I pay attention to are Peter Huber, Daniel Yergin, and Michael Lynch.    Freddy Hutter has been a peak oil critic and occasionally pops in at The Oil Drum.  A conservative economist I like to read is Irwin M. Stelzer, whose writings are at http://www.theweeklystandard.com and http://www.hudson.org/learn/index.cfm?fuseaction=staff_bio&eid=StelIrwi.

What I find most interesting is that a growing number of investment managers are starting to talk about peak oil in their communications with their clients.  For example, Bill Miller of Legg Mason brought it up in his 2005 year-end letter to shareholders.  For the most part I think the top buy-side analysts and investment managers are relatively unbiased in their assessment of peak oil.

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Simstim on March 25, 2006 - 8:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Although, as with pretty much any prominent commentator, it helps to be aware of where these people are coming from.  Stelzer, for instance, is considered to be Rupert Murdoch's right hand man, at least in Britain.
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oil watcher on March 26, 2006 - 12:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I recently read Stephen Leeb's book "The Coming Economic Collapse" regarding how to invest for survival (and profit) in the forthcoming peak oil environment and thought his investment advise was excellent.  I agree that the chapter on "group think" is higly enlightening but I was searching for an investment perspective and I thought he provided a very sound analysis.  It's the first peak oil book that I'm aware of that focused on the investment side of the peak oil problem and I believe it is well worth the cover price.
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101 comments on Tertzakian: A Review by Dave

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