<Tertzakian: A Review by Dave The Oil Drum Sunday Open Thread>

220 comments on Saturday Open Thread and News Dump

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AlanfromBigEasy on March 27, 2006 - 12:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I looked more closely at these series of graphs and I have some questions.

The 2002 & 2003 graphs agree on 2003 production, (as do the 2005 & 2006 graphs), but there is a delat between 2004 & 2005/6 graphs for 2003, presumably a settled # by 2004.

Likewise there is a small delta between 2005 and 2006 in their "predictions" for 2004 #s.

Presumably this is a timing/later revisions issue, but it seems large and late for such.

How much of the delta between 2005 & 2006E for 2006, 2007, 2008 is due to abandoned gas wells in the GOM (near depletion wells/fields that are not worth re-entering) ?

Any offical explanation for these MAJOR erros in prediction ?

Thanks,

Alan

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Leanan on March 27, 2006 - 1:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Jerome explains how the graph was made in the comments to his diary.  IIRC, there's a two-year lag between prediction and reality.  Because, for example, the 2005 prediction was done during 2004, so the 2004 numbers on the 2005 line are prediction, not actual.
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220 comments on Saturday Open Thread and News Dump

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