Note that the Russian Minister of Industry and Energy is concerned about a "a real collapse in oil production" if they don't immediately start encouraging frontier exploration.

http://www.russiaprofile.org/politics/2006/2/6/3211.wbp

The argument in favor of Russia boosting production seems to be "they still have a lot of unexplored areas."  Russian Cowboy doesn't seem to be as optimistic:

Also, the promised polar oil may never be found in reality. The only major oilfield that Russia has in the Arctic Ocean is Prirazlomnoye with about 1.5 Gba of oil. Russian oil companies have been looking for coastal shelf oil, but failed to come up with any major finds in the last 10 years except for the 500 Mba field in the Caspian sea found a month ago by Lukoil. Also, the average cost of producing oil in Russia is climbing fast. It was only $6.7/ba in 2001, $10/ba in 2003, and $15/ba in 2005. In the near future, Kremlin may be kissing goodbye to the fabulous oil royalties it is enjoying now.