The Oil Drum | Open Thread

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WebHubbleTelescope on March 4, 2006 - 4:40pm

Not much.

Regarding Cheney, what is the lowest favoribility rating where when you shoot somebody, your poll numbers actually go up? I call this the redneck effect.

On another thing, concerning this "breech" versus "over-topping" problem with the New Orleans levees, everything I have ever seen regarding flooding is that when something over-tops it will soon breech due to the forces of the water. You see this all the time with roads, etc, getting washed out, when flood waters get too high.

Sorry, I have been listening to some wing-nut radio today.

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WebHubbleTelescope on March 4, 2006 - 4:43pm

I forgot to add something. Can anyone predict when Bush will utter the phrase, "I don't think anyone anticipated the peaking of oil" ?

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fromthepriesthole on March 4, 2006 - 4:58pm

SOON

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creg on March 4, 2006 - 5:11pm

"but I told you we're addicted to oil" {I told you so -grinning).

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Fletcher on March 4, 2006 - 5:40pm

I provide "wing-nut" detox (in twelve steps or less, your choice) in a state of the art sound-proof facility here on blue-state MDI. Call for favorable rates. I promise not to blather on res lexi
May 2007
Stuart, which are more reliable numbers EIA, IEA, AIE, IAE, IKEA ? Error bars for the most reliable numbers? Chocolate Bars and members of the Bar for the rest?

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sendoilplease on March 4, 2006 - 7:09pm

I am about as apolitical as I wanna be, and love to laught at Baby Doc Bush as much as the next rear-or-the-Bus driver... but to be honest, I think Oil Man Bush and his advisors going into his first term Knew darned well what we were facing.

I also think it's pretty clear this mess was Unavoidable (we be critters too ya know - with only a tiny layer of "self-awareness-greyishywhitematter" separating us from the next critter down on the self-conscious scale...why do we expect so much better behavior from Homo sap ? "Is this a Fair and Reasonable Expectation," asks The Mother as she reviews her copies of "The Naked Ape and Human Zoo")

I also think it is NO one's fault... this Wave was inevitable and is not attributable to any one person or nation etc etc... finger pointing in Past Waves seems mostly to confuse and then distract from solving the problem (e.g. N.O = Katrina ClusterCoitus type of responses).

Unfortunately (maybe... - after All "good" and "bad" in these situations are Defined by The Mothe of Nature and if not mistaken, I think She does the Sorting Out Of later too)...unfortunately it looks like Bush went for the Historical and Typical and Easy Way Out of SpyvsSpy, Military-Might-Makes-Right approach.

IMHO it appears that Bush et. al chose to SECURE Iraqi oil and keep it on the open mkt as opposed to Stealing it for America onyl (etc, etc, Maybe). Nice of the Euro's to trash us in public but Drink the Iraqi Black Blood we ensure makes it to the market just the same... )hippocritters just like us 'mericans afterall i guesses)...

The Jury on Bush II, the Nightmare Begins, is probably going to be out for a while until Further Reliable (i.e. Not from the tri-somic monochromatic media Hype-n-Type 4 Cash) Information/Data is made available in the future some day... (when we are looking Back at the Peak of Energy Dayze...).

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WebHubbleTelescope on March 4, 2006 - 10:08pm

I also think it is NO one's fault...

It was a failure of leadership, with the fault resting on the shoulders of one man.

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sendoilplease on March 4, 2006 - 11:53pm

If that is what you deliberately chose to believe, fine. But some people would rather put their emotions and the popular Strawman-of-the-Month aside, consider the facts in light of HISTORY... as well as your current life-experience.

And people who do those things may beg to differ. Or might not bother because it is a childishly distrating subject.

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sendoilplease on March 5, 2006 - 1:35am

IF and when Someone somewhere in Time THEN looks back to NOW and can actually PinPoint a Single Individual upon which This Wave's CREST's Fate rests, go back in Time tHEN, and kill him.

And Exactly one (1) week later Someone ELSE will pick the wings of the same Butterfly and the Same Effect will be affected.

I think I bet.

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WebHubbleTelescope on March 5, 2006 - 12:28pm

Leadership is going to New Orleans promptly instead of making fund-raising stops while strumming a guitar on stage.

Not a big revelation, but I thought quite obvious.

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sendoilplease on March 5, 2006 - 4:36pm

"Not a big revelation, but I thought quite obvious.
"

Or... a big SCAPEGOAT DISTRACTION for Homo Wimps who muble,[piss and moan when Some ONE ESLE failed to Notice They had Diaper Rash...

I mean really. "Mommy, why did you not notice when I slammed my finger in the door Four Years ago and take the Door off the Hinges or fix it better for me While I PARTIED like it was still 1999... the Year of the Cats-Who-Could-Create Matter and Energy even ...

PASS THE PAPER FIAT Mother... i hear they need it to dry their crocodilic, faux, terra fauna tears.

WHAT ??? oh, i wouldn't go that far The Mother... but then again, it is Your Universe and youse DOES make these laws don'tcha... as well as the Sentences of the Weak and REALITY TV Famous... take 'em out and sort 'em later Mother.

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LJR on March 4, 2006 - 8:56pm

You've clearly been taking it in the breeches.

breech Audio pronunciation of "breech" ( P ) Pronunciation Key (brch)
n.

1. The lower rear portion of the human trunk; the buttocks.
2.
1. A breech presentation or delivery.
2. A fetus in breech presentation.

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LJR on March 4, 2006 - 9:00pm

breech

1. The lower rear portion of the human trunk; the buttocks.
2.
1. A breech presentation or delivery.
2. A fetus in breech presentation.

breach

1.
1. An opening, a tear, or a rupture.
2. A gap or rift, especially in or as if in a solid structure such as a dike or fortification.
2. A violation or infraction, as of a law, a legal obligation, or a promise.
3. A breaking up or disruption of friendly relations; an estrangement.
4. A leap of a whale from the water.
5. The breaking of waves or surf.

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Gets IT on March 4, 2006 - 9:10pm

It was because he shot a lawyer.

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Heading Out on March 4, 2006 - 11:17pm

The first thing that happened was that the floodwalls and levees were overtopped. With the floodwalls the water fell down the onshore side and eroded away the support for the wall, in most places chewing down a cavity that was about 3 ft wide on the land side of the wall. The loss of resistance, and local factors would then cause one segment of the wall to move in as the land-side resistance failed, and the sheet piling bent into a spout shape in most places.

The major difference at the Lower Ninth Ward (where all the videos are usually shot) is that the wall was breached by a barge than ran along the wall as it went through it, knocking out and moving some 200 yards or more of wall, almost instantaneously. Thus, instead of just a slow rising water level, in that case there was a wall of water than entered the city. It removed all the dwellings for about four blocks carrying everything before it until it started to run out of power and dumped most of the debris (house bits, cars etc), which caused barriers that redirected some of the flow then laterally. This sudden failure and large damage zone was atypical of the city damage. On the other hand down the delta whenever the water overtopped the levees the damage was almost total as it was whipped up by the force of the hurricane.

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AlanfromBigEasy on March 5, 2006 - 12:54am

Quite frankly wrong, at least for the 17th Street and Orleans Canal breaches, which flooded a majority of New Orleans.

The debris line was over a foot from the top. Terrible Corps of Engineers design did not sink pilings deep enough, water went underneath and bubbled up on the other side. Eventually this "tunneled" and undermined the levees there.

In Placquemines and St. Bernard, the Corps of Engineers built Mr GO (Mississippi River Gulf Outlet) was also a Gulf of Mexico Gulf Inlet and, after having destroyed the swamps around it with salt water intrusion, let in a wave of water that over topped the levees in that side.

Just got back from dinner @ GW Fins with two Corps of Engineers engineers. A good friend is a City of New Orleans Public Works engineer who got back in on Wednesday after Katrina and took photos before evidence was bulldozed.

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Heading Out on March 5, 2006 - 1:08am

Not to be controversial but I do have a picture from the 17th St breech, showing the overtopping scar as it was filled in during the creation of the new wall.

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AlanfromBigEasy on March 5, 2006 - 1:53am

Without seeing that specific photo, I have talked with those engineers on the scene. In the undermine scenario, the concrete plates would fall underneath the waves as the dirt disappeared underneath. The intact concrete plates next to the breach showed debris lines a foot from the top. Since all plates were within an inch of each other in height before Katrina, if it did not overtop next to the breach AND there is clear evidence of a sand boil in the yard of a neighbor, then this supports the undermining explanation.

Note, more than one breach on the 17th Street Canal (love the Quality control at the Corps of Engineers !), so there may be more than one mechanism for failure.

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Heading Out on March 5, 2006 - 5:12pm

This is a typical overtopping scour (from the Industrial Canal). The width is about 3-4 ft and you can see the sheet piles exposed under the concrete wall. The sheet piles are then moved forward and tilt.

This was from down at Port Sulfur. Note that the water flow has gouged out down to bedrock in front of the sheet piles.
The concrete slabs on top are then thrown forward

This is from the center of the 17th St failure. You can see the slabs fell forward and not back,

We have many photos that show similarities across the floodwall failures around NOLA and the delta, but these I can use, since they are mine, the rest will only be available when the report is released.

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AlanfromBigEasy on March 5, 2006 - 5:48pm

I can likley get you additional photos taken on onsite Wednesday after Katrina fro 17th Street & Orleans failures.

eMail with directions (friend of mine with Public Works took them) Alan_Drake@Juno.com

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Gets IT on March 5, 2006 - 6:29pm

I didn't know Louisiana had any "bedrock". Most of my projects, we only hit stiff clay and oyster shells sometimes if we were lucky. I worked a lot up at Taft and then down in Homa, Lake Charles, Lafayette, Morgan City and a lot we did only on piles set deep into muck with a build up of shell on the surface. I thought most all of its the kind of gumbo you can't eat, clay gumbo; kinda' too thick to drink, but too thin to plow.

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Heading Out on March 5, 2006 - 7:36pm

I may have got that wrong - I wasn't about to go down and look, though it did look like a rock slab it could have been a hard layer of clay, and it was fairly deep below the surface.

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AlanfromBigEasy on March 5, 2006 - 8:06pm

The core of levees should be clay, in order to stop water migration.

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Gets IT on March 5, 2006 - 8:42pm

Everything in LA and East Texas is Clay Clay Clay, in varying degrees of "stiffness". Sometimes you do see a pretty stiff layer that you'd almost think is rock, but usually its just clay with a lot of micro coral shells well embedded.

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