231 comments on Monday Open Thread/Which Battle Plan Would You Draw?
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
231 comments on Monday Open Thread/Which Battle Plan Would You Draw?
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Unique Times -- and the Future
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- The Bullroarer - Friday 27th November 2009
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“Men argue; nature acts.”
—Voltaire
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
I think the thing that is not fully appreciated by a lot of people is that going with any alternative energy scheme such as solar, wind, wave, etc) will actually worsen the fossil fuel situation over the short term, even if that time period is only a few years.
This is not to say that we shouldn't be pursuing such alternative energy schemes, it's just that we have to factor in the reality that such schemes will actually increase fossil fuel demand for some time period. If we wait till the supply/demand situation gets really bad, it will become far more expensive and difficult to implement such systems. It's analogous to the starving farmer who can't afford to buy seed for next season's crops.
It's also become almost an article of theology among financial and business types that a unless a certain percent return on investment is guaranteed, there is no justification for going with a project. I think when it comes to trying to develop a whole new energy infrastructure, the insistance on such criteria is highly flawed. What if NOTHING you can do in the way of alternative energy shows an acceptable return on investment? What do you do then - just wait around until things collapse?
There is also a displacement in what we include as 'investment'. Arguably, a certain fraction of the US military budget of over $400 billion can allocated to maintaining our access to oil and in obtaining new sources of oil (read that as taking control over someone else's). But this huge amount of money doesn't get charged against the current price of imported fossil fuel. Rather, it shows up under another account, euphemistically called, 'national defense'.
So, what if we were to take say 25% (just to pull some number out of the air) of the $400 billion US defense budget, or $100 billion, divide that by the total number of barrels of oil we import per year from the Middle East, and then add that number to the market price of oil? That sum would more accurately represent the true price of imported oil - the market price plus the price of the 'externiality' (I believe that's the word economists love to use) of maintaining a huge military presence to ensure the continued flow of that oil.
Of course, neither the government nor the oil companies would ever accept such a number as valid, as it would be far too embarrassing. I maintain that the number is valid because if the US were to magically obtain a reserve of oil equal to that of the whole Middle East, it would be possible to reduce our military spending by some huge amount because there would be no need to perpetually meddle in the Middle East.
None of this will ever happen, but it's a way I prefer to look at the situation.
Not exactly, projects or investments are evaluated based on a hurdle rate and not judged acceptable unless the expected return is higher than the cost of capital. Your comment about a guarantee is overstated as is calling ot theology. But you are right that the private sector requires that their money earn more in any given investment than they would get in the next best option. If oil is subsidized by military spending, it skews this decsision.
What would you suggest as an alternative? There are a limited number of possibilities:
- Investors agree to lose money - which is highly unlikely
- Governments (or other bodies) agree to subsized certain investments - which is difficult and subject to political influence. None-the-less, it is the logical way to include the externalities you mention above ("what if we were to take say 25%...") in allocating investments in alternatives.
So how would you see these subsidies determined? Would this favor coal and nuclear energy - or would you also make adjustments for climate impacts? Who would decide all of this?I agree with your fundamental point - oil is subsidized by miltary spending, which makes all alternatives more expensive than they should be. I would just be curious to see more details on how we can move to mitigate ths problem.
However, if a corporation can realize returns of anything above their cost of capital they should be able to raise this from the market. Companies with access to returns above their cost of capital should not be capital constrained and hence can invest not only in the projects that return 25%, but those that return 24%, 23%, 22%, etc.
However, I dispute this statement "The floor now for projects is more around 15-20% ROI". No one in the world has access to a steady stream of projects with an expected return of 15 - 20% unless they are very risky.
Many individuals have reached this point. I think the industry as a whole is pretty far from this point.
This theology is the heart of our problem: the debt-and-interest financial system that requires endless "growth" to survive. Without a new paradigm we're doomed.
Those investors that refuse to "lose money" now will lose everything later. Sort of like the claim that reducing GHG is "bad for the economy". Tell that to NOLA.
Here's the link to a paper I wrote in an attempt to outline the paradigm of an organic economic system. An organic economy is an economy that does not require perpetual growth (an impossibility on a finite earth) , but balances the forces of growth and decline.
The Organic Economy
We can experiment with wind and solar today, when fossils are cheap and we are not confronted yet with the necessety to store the renewable energy, but stubornly refusing to face the realities of tomorrow is a perfect recipe for disaster.
The reality is the following: either we start building nuclear power plants (EROEI ~ 50, potential reserves in the order of million years) or we decide to give up the industrial civilisation. The stubborn refusal of enviromentalists even to mention the word "nuclear" makes me think they want us to pick the second option. What they do not tell us is what their "bright, non-industrial future" will be like which tells me that they simply don't know. They don't know neither what it would look like, nor how we can get there without shooting ourselves along the way. They are pushing their vague daydreams to all of us and we are buying it, because we are the same daydreamers that like and even demand to be fooled.
One thing is sure - either thing happening - a massive die-off or a massive but hard switch to nuclear power, our kids will be looking at us and wondering what kind of idiots were living at the beginning of the 21st century.
I don't think that's fair. Many environmentalists are supporting nuclear these days, because of global warming.
IME, it's local residents who don't want a nuclear plant in their backyward. Even in Japan.
True, but it is almost as far to becoming a MSM as the economists acknowledging PO as a serious problem. I'm sorry for generalising too much but it is the MSM that the public is getting the messages from.
As for the NIMBYsm - it is mostly function of the way the media presents things. While media is being a double whore (sorry for the expression) - serving both what the public wants to hear and what their sponsors want to be published, you can not rely on anything meaningful as a public opinion. IMO it is obvious there are situations it needs to be overriden - who supported USA going to war against Nazi Germany for example? For a reversal to happen it is the responsibility of those that ignited the NIMBYsm at the first place to admit they could have been wrong. I don't expect this to happen.
I am one of those environmentalists. I've had my share of marches and blockades, but I have done a 160 on this issue after 30 years (not quite 180).
The environment movement is split on this issue, but the pro-nuke wing is a minority wing. Same over the question of immigration as we witnessed with the election last year for the Board of the Sierra Club. The let us stop immigration minority wing was labeled as "racist" over wanting less people to illegally enter the USA.
There are many environmentalist (a minority) who want to go back to the Rousseau "noble savage" world too. They may get their opportunity, but it is interesting to note that those same noble savages killed off the mammoth, mastodon, etc.
"
Worth repeating. Making some past culture your latest and greatest mental refuge (religion) is silly. Our ancestors were just as cut-throat as us.
Otherwise The Mother of Nature would be looking on a group of Homo Saps doing something Other than making plans to gor at eachothers throat and ask questions later.
"it is interesting to note that those same noble savages killed off the mammoth, mastodon, etc."
There is still a debate going among archaeologists as to the proximate cause of the extinctions--climate change or overhunting. See one discussion: http://www.sfu.ca/archaeology/museum/mammoths/extinct.htm
Most likely it was a combination of the two, but there are good arguments made on both sides. The so-called "savages" lived with the same pressures we do--finding enough resources to survive and reproduce. In an environment where there was an abundance of other game, I doubt there was much pressure to conserve one species. Mammoth and mastodon were preferred because there was a lot of return on your investment of energy. Once they were gone, people switched to other sources but probably not without difficulty. In general (there are always exceptions of course), tribal hunter/gatherers evolved ways of living sustainably in their environments, including keeping their population sizes stable through infanticide if necessary. While that statement might be construed as an argument for the validity of:
"Our ancestors were just as cut-throat as us" there are also examples of hunter/gatherer cultures that are much more cooperative and non-agressive than we are. Google the Kung people of the Kalahari, or the Mbuti people of the Forest in Africa. There are also the Yanomamo in the Amazon, however. My point is that it's not necessarily true that humans are by nature wasteful or "cut-throat". Culture has much more to do with it and that is something we can change. Given the dwindling supply of the resources that keep our culture going, IMO we are definitely going to have to change and adapt in order to survive.
Would you PLEASE email the Midwest Renewable Energy Association at: info@the-mrea.org ???
(please just once though or they get quit owly at you - "pest" stone repelant they use (organic even)
PLEASE talk to them. Like the NewAge Repbulicans, myself and the EcoCulturally Correct, we have the SAME GOALS (goals - like in tag as a kid).
But I feel their (MREA) good intentions only serve to CLOUD the rode to HAdes we are now Paving In Progress...
1. Those who advocate immediate and big-time investment in nuclear energy.
versus
2. Those who apparently cannot do even simple algebra, maybe not even sixth-grade-level percentage-type computations.
Politics rules, and most politicians appear to be innumerate, or too scared about the next election to tell the truth. Or both.
We have oil that can power our civilisation for 10 year, NG for 20 years, coal for 100 years, uranium/thorium for many thousands of years, while wind could at least partioally power it indefinately (after you factor out the resources you need to build it). It is the availability and the impact of the resources we use that matter.
Even economicaly - just look 20 years ahead. Price of oil will probably be in the stratosphere, NG and coal will be somewhere above the clouds, while uranium will still be cheap. Because it is abundant, and we will not have to worry about it in the next several thousand years.
It's just like with wind - you need a public support to do it, because wind needs subsidies. In this case the subsidy required is "trust" plus "public control". It is simple - nobody will bury $2-3 billions if they are not sure that the next goverment will not just close down the project because of NIMBYsm. Public control is needed to ensure everything is built safely. I feel it is the need for public control that drives many people away - they prefer not to care. I think it is time to care.
VS the subsides oil gets (do you think the military isn't one?)
VS the subsides nuclear power gets (by law, the libality is limited)
VS the subsidies (of whatever) gets (insert tax law treatment, laws or whatever)
Is the 'propping up' of wind less than, say nuclear power? The occational failure of a wind turbine means something on the ground gets hit. What IS the downside when nuclear power fails?
I'm not advocating oil. Using it and especially coal is probably the greatest liability we're leaving for the future.
VS the subsides nuclear power gets (by law, the libality is limited)
Where is the subsidy here? Make a research how much nuclear power plants are paying on insurance yearly. Many, many billions. How much is it paying to government in terms of license fees, fees for building that storage in Yuca Mountain, etc. etc? Even more. There is a reason why governments like nuclear - they are profitable and a cash cow at any stage of their operation. Unfortunatelly the fear from not being re-elected is stronger for any politician than the concern for budget balance (we can always print money, right?).
Usually governments give guarantees for financing of new plants, but this is because of the nature of the business and does not affect taxpayers in 99% of the cases.
Finally wind will also be developed by huge corporations seeking profits. I don't see any place for idealism here.
That would be the rates under the Price-Anderson Nuclear Industries Indemnity Act?
Its a mighty BIG government handout.
But, go ahead. Figure out what the libality of operatioon of a nuclear plant would be WITHOUT that law,
they are profitable and a cash cow at any stage of their operation.
What an over-the-top statement. When they are being built, they are not operational and therefore tyou have choen to ignore the cost. When they are de-commissioned, they are not operational and therefore you have chosen to ignore the costs.
Most businesses have to pay for their waste liability. Yet, the nuclear power industry has the government take on that libality. (Yet another subsusidy)
How was Chynerboyl and Three Mile Island 'profitable' due to their operation? Lets concentrate on the last few days of operation, because they ARE profitable at ANY stage of operation, right?
Finally wind will also be developed by huge corporations seeking profits.
Yea, because if you have land, some skills, copper, magnets, steel and resin you too could be a wind turbine maker AND user.
http://www.otherpower.com/
http://www.otherpower.com/17page1.html
(Yup a wind turbine 3kw all home made)
Enjoy poking about at otherpower!
Utilities pay interest on capital for the time they are constracting the plants. They have also accumulated close to 100 bln. in payments to the govt for that waste disposal site we still hope to see in our lifetime. Bad decision to rely on our govmnt to do that - it seem that former Soviets was much more effective, because it solved their problem decades ago and many times cheaper.
Chernobyl was in former USSR, where everything was payed by the government and utilities did not pay insurance. Don't start me on that topic for I'll be long.
First there is a question of arithmetic--adding up how much capacity is needed. I see no evidence that you have done this.
Second there is the question of whether coal and nuclear are complementary or competitive approaches. Clearly, they are complementary. Again, doing the simple column addition, how much added capacity is going to be needed (on reasonable demand projections) over the next ten two twenty years? After you have done this computation, please find me one knowledgeable coal person who claims that coal alone can do this.
Third: If coal is so great, why don't the French and Japanese use more of it? They have good ports and if it made any economic sense (which it does not) they could have opted to import huge quantitities of coal rather than going nuclear.
I look forward to seeing your computations.
Wow. Now, I've asked you in the past to answer questions about the special laws which protect nuke plants and limit the legal libality in the US of A.
Yet I've not seen your response.
Why is that? Did I miss your response?
You also forget a 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th et la types like Monte Quest over at PO.com who advocate a powerdown or population reduction (or both).
Because the same people that talk about "power down" and a return to the pastoral living of shepherds in the loans of ex-suburbia, will be the first that will start screaming when homo sapiens begins eating itself and the whole planet alongside, trying to protect what it has now.
Obviously, anyone who speaks of a pastoral living of sheperds has never actaully BEEN a farmer or had to deal with more than a cat or a dog.
Powerdown is GOING to happen. The overall energy used by machines and humans WILL fall. The only question is, what rates of fall, and if the watt/human ratio will fall also.
Importing energy from space into the envelope of the earth will result in heating. The use of fusion power at a level to support all of the humans now on the planet would also add heat to the atmospheric envelope.
Getting off planet and harvesting the other planets in an orgy of consumption would work...if the energy source like fusion were to become more harvestable than just collecting photons from fusion.
screaming when homo sapiens begins eating itself and the whole planet alongside, trying to protect what it has now.
Then education has no hope, does it? Because what it has in the recient past was cheap energy. That cheap energy is at an end. Nuke power isn't AS cheap/flexable as oil. Nor is wind, PV, or hydro. Biomass can be as flexable (bvecause oil is just old biomass...processed), but it will not be as cheap.
I'm far from being hopeless. There is a huge resource available in terms of efficienty, conservation even renewables will help.
The reason nuke power is not cheap is that it is not mass produced. It is not mass produced because of cheap fossils before and because of NIMBYsm now. And not to last extent because of not enough international cooperation in the sphere plus strong oil/coal industries receiving huge profits for relying on their dwindling and polluting resources. All of this can change if we start working for it. And - again - and of course - we must fire all guns. ALL of them.
But really, it's going to be nukes, coal, solar, and wind. Or maybe coal, nukes, wind, and solar.
Now if only we could get wave costs down to wind costs, there's so much slamming into the California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia every day...
At least no hope for the Global Village Mass Delusion.
The one where Every Tom, Chen, or Ahmoud (sp??) can live in a First World Home Country. "Not gonna happen, uh-Ah, no sir, not gonna happen."
I think Fractured Fairy Tales is coming. Pockets of Civilization instead of Pockets of 3rd World-or-less poverty will become the norm for a while.
Religious nutz will hopefully voluntarily Remove themselves from the Gene Pool in the process thank their godzain'treal.
EEeeeeventually of course this will all be followed by a Tousind year Raign of Terror if the Religious Fanatics decide to use their Tool to Crush Skulls instead of Build Communities.
Or, maybe some Phantasm will come riding out of the clouds and usher in a thousand years of peices-of-8.
Mother says, "git ta bed and i mean it now."
Insurance is not an especially effective way to handle very large and very uncommon accidents. How do you correctly size the insurance funds? How do you keep them liquid, where are they to be invested and what is to be done with the raw economical power those massive funds will have?
I use to advocate that a large number of nuclear power producers, preferably all of them, should agree to write contracts with a clause to all raise their prices with 0.1 cent after a major accident and use the massive money flow to compensate victims and work with decontamination etc. This would create a money flow that could pay for any reasonably sized relief effort for manny years.
I don't think that anyone can convince you that cement kilns are powered by coal. Well, these days a lot of them run on oil. Specifically the used crankcase oil they get from Jiffylube and other oil change franchises. But they don't run on natural gas anymore, now that the price of natural gas has got so high.
The point is that nuclear is much less dependant on fossil fuel subsidy than the proposed alternatives.
Compare the numbers:
Source (pdf): http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/news/CEC/CEC_Nuclear_Workshop_PFP_8=051.pdf
To replace US electricity generation system with wind turbines we are going to need some 4500 GW of capacity, correspondent to 3 mln.middle sized turbines (or 1 mln. offshore turbines). This would translate into some:
~ 2070 mln. tonnes of steel;
~ 3915 mln.m^3 of concrete (40 years of total US production!)
~ Enormous amounts of composites, wires, pavement for access roads etc.
~ Undefined amount of (yet to be invented/developed) energy storage
Even worse though, each year we will need to recycle 3 to 5% of them due to amortisation.
In comparison 700GW of nukes would require:
~ 28 mln tonnes of steel
~ 133 mln.m^3 of concrete (1.3 years of US production)
~ Much less additional infrastructure because we can place them wherever we want.
The numbers are 30 to 80 times lower! Do I need to comment?
Not quite. The knowledge gained about the physical world won't go away, unless humanity destroys that knowledge. The abilities of modern metal making, ceramics, composites are not something anyone wants to give up on, and like the launching of satalites to watch the weather will find many people who'd sacrifice to keep that functionality.
a massive die-off
A die off would allow for the use of taking photons and fixing them as hydrocarbons, alcohols, directly to current, or moving conductors through magentic fields and the resulting harvest of energy to keep the ones alive at the level of existance they are used to.
The problem is overcoming human greed and corruption, not to mention their fondness for the past of cheap oil and an unwillingness to give up on that past.
Besides, don't you think that the "power elite" would be unwilling to have you killed just so they can keep their black SUV's?
Human knowledge is lost. We are all part of a complex system aimed to preserve it and to pass it on to the next generations. Remove any part of it and after 3-4 generations we are back to feodalism, if not worse.
Here's the problem with nuclear. I'll concede, at least for the sake of argument, that in theory a nuclear power plant can be operated safely. If all the procedures developed by the engineers are followed scrupulously and indefinitely out into the future, then all will be well. What no engineer can guarantee is that the procedures will be followed. That's because engineers cannot guarantee societal stability. They cannot guarantee that even just the profit motive might not lead to "shortcuts".
So what is proposed is a massive expansion of nuclear technology on an ever weaker industrial base, with the ever greater prospect of social turmoil and instability. So there are then at least two factors here which are greatly multiply the chances of disaster.
Well, if there were real hope that in spite of all this it would at least give us a chance to go on at least remotely like we are now, then one could entertain the thought. But it does not. Because there is not an infinite supply of uranium either. Aha! Breeders you say. And here the dangers escalate several orders of magnitude. And still there remains a horizon.
No matter how you slice it, technology alone is not going to save us this time. Science is going to have to be applied to the globe and our relation to it -- nothing short of that. And as of right now, I think science suggests that we may have overshot. How much? Science is mumbling on this one.
I don't believe in anything else: science and rationality. But they have to be applied to globe now. Don't get angry. Say where you differ.
But there are limits to efficiency and also below some level the line of material wellfare will threaten the basic needs of humans. This should be avoided - there is already enough starvation in the world. Here nuclear power will help, because fossils will be depleted much faster than our society will be able to transform.
I don't accept the die-off hipothesis, let alone propositions. It isn't natural and can not happen "peacfully" in any way. Even a natural decreasing population will result in enourmous pressure of one elderly world that can drive us to even lower end-point.
IMO the industrial civilisation is sustainable. The industries will change and adapt, after we (finally) learn to exercise a better control over the impact they have on environment.
The fate of capitalism is more questionable and I see it turning into something less-resembling cancer but I don't dare to predict what it will be.
Overall I tend to resist fiercely to revolutionistic ideas. They have never brought anybody any good.
Nuclear reactors and their support infrastructure will be crown jewels in an energy poor society. Almost as valuble as good hydro dams.
Regarding nuclear safety - I think we are very close to producing a self regulating plant design. It can only get better there, unless we are headed for a nuclear rush build up, which to be worried about. Already incidents of the type the public fears (Chernobil type) are practically impossible in contemporary water moderated reactors - if the core gets overheated the water turns to steam and steam does not slow neutrons well; the result is that fission slows very fast and will finally stop even if the control rods or/and cooling system are out of order.
The idea were to build a PWR with a giant preassure vessel filled with borated water and a much smaller inner tank around the core with non borated water being pumped to the steam generators. The inner tank were to be connected to the outer tank by vertical open bundles of tubes with differences in density between hot borated and cooler non borated water preventing circulation. One bundle at the top and one in the bottom of the inner tank. If the circulation pumps then were run to fast or to slow the borated water enters the inner circulation and shuts down the nuclear reaction.
The PIUS design had a preassure vessel made of prestressed concrete lined with stainless steel, the same kind of structure as a BWR containment but much thicker and with more steel cables. The volume were calculated to be enough for cooling the core for one week with boiloff before uncovering the top of the fuel elements. But the main emergency cooling systems where four small free draft cooling towers in the top of the containment building with natural circulation to four heat exchangers in the borated water. They could keep the system cool untill water started to leak somewhere, after a year or ten.
Almost walk out and throw away the keys safety.
The smaller SECURE district heating version were almost sold to heat Helsinki, Finland but then Tjernobyl happened. :-(
The biggest problem with PIUS is as far as I have heard that it is less fuel efficient then standard PWR:s.
"the true EROEI of renewables is in the low single digits" - you know, as long as it's greater than one, EROEI is NOT the primary criterion that matters. What matters is the bottom line - capital costs and maintenance/fuel costs - on the one hand, and scalability of the solution on the other. EROEI does affect both of those issues - the more energy invested of course the more expensive something will be, so particularly for capital costs (but nuclear power has huge capital costs too, at least part of which is "EI"). And low EROEI increases the primary production requirement, so something that requires a lot of land will require, to produce the same net energy, that much more land if EROEI is too low.
This is much more of a problem when EROEI is not much above 1. EROEI of 1.2 (as even some optimistic ethanol figures have it) means that although your total energy production is six times your net (1.2 vs. 0.2) so you need six times as much land, capital, etc. as you might expect. But an EROEI value of 5 or more is hardly different from an EROEI of 100 - it increases expected investment only 25% or less above the raw figure you would expect from direct output.
If all non-energy inputs were incredibly inexpensive and abundant, even an EROEI of 1.2 wouldn't be a problem; you're still getting net useful energy out.
Electricity is a much HIGHER quality energy source than oil and is available NOW for transportation use - has the author never heard of rail? And I was just in Toronto, where the streets are filled with electrically powered streetcars. Ocean and air transport may be more difficult problems than transport by land, but there are lots of solutions much better than hydrogen electrolysis for that!
The article complains that payback times are "calculated in terms of current financial costs, not energy availability" in the future - but EROEI (if that's what he's complaining about) is a matter of physics and a pretty definite value, given a reasonable degree of fungibility of energy sources (taking into account for instance that electricity is usually higher quality - a unit of electricity can typically do 3 times as much work as a unit of heat at boiling-water temperatures). Yes there's some fuzziness in definitions, and people can certainly choose to waste as much as they want.
Having positive financial payback (subtracting the effects of all government incentives) is a pretty good indicator of high EROEI though, if all revenue is from energy sales and given the fungibility requirement.
Lower EROEI indirectly means smaller scalability. This is clearly seen in the tar sands production where restricted inputs are straing the production. With poor sources there will soon come a time that the net additions of capacity are hardly able to keep with the capacity that stops working because of amortisations. Clearly - there are limits that will soon be met.
As for electricity being a better source, if so why are we talking about Peak Oil?
Because oil and other fossil fuels have been cheap; we're entering an era of more expensive energy sources, unless technology developments fix that. Why are you talking about nuclear power - that only provides electricity also, right? How does it help, if electricity is useless?
The fact is, a given unit of electric energy can be directly converted to mechanical energy with upwards of 90% efficiency; chemical fuels can only approach that through the intermediary of fuel cells, which themselves produce electricity.
Heat, which is what you get by burning fossil fuels for the most part, can only be converted to mechanical or electrical energy with at most about 35% efficiency using steam turbine technology; gasoline internal combustion engines do worse. Gas turbines can do better by extracting mechanical energy more directly from the expanding burning gas, but it's still a lot less mechanical energy (useful work) than you would get from the same number of Joules of electrical energy.
Conversely, electricity can be converted to heat for low-level heat requirements (household heating for instance) via heat pumps that produce 3, 4, or more times as much heat energy as the input electricity.
So electric energy is higher quality in direct use than heat or anything you can do directly with chemical sources. That doesn't make it easier to handle - trans-continental transport of significant quantities of electric energy is costly and lossy, and storage is also expensive (though it can be done with pretty high efficiency through mechanical or chemical means). But claiming electricity can't be the primary energy source to transport steel or run heavy equipment or chemical processing facilities is simply wrong.
FWIW nuclear could be much more helpful in synthesising synthetic fuels than renewables which must go through efficiency conversion. But we digressed - the whole point is that we are going into an energy stagnant world. For now we know of two ways to go on: nuclear and renewables. The first being a much more scalable, reliable and cheap resource. If we for political reasons decide to skip it, can you prove that using only the second option is possible? Do you know how many wind turbines will be necessary? I recently calculated them to 3 million medium sized for the electricity and about 10 million for our whole energy consumption (USA). Energy storage aside.
How do you forsee maintaining all of them (and replacing 500 000 a year)? More importantly where do we find the resources to build and maintain them? Won't we be trying to solve one problem created by the complexity of our society by creating even more complex infrastructure and many more future problems, unforseen now? And at what point will we just give up pouring our dwindling natural capital in a dead-end technology?
I'll leave you to answer these questions by yourself I'm starting to feel tired of this argument.
"FWIW nuclear could be much more helpful in synthesising synthetic fuels, than renewables which must go through low-efficiency electricity conversion."
Yes, storing electricity is difficult; the concept of energy quality is very specific though, at least the concept I was trying to express: usable work that can be obtained from a given quantity. Basically, the free energy in a given usage environment; electric and mechanical (including hydro) energy are worth roughly 3 times as much as the energy you get from burning fuel, in that specific measurable sense.
Yes it requires wires or batteries which are capital costs that you don't have with chemical fuel. But you started this discussion complaining about EROEI for renewables, and those capital costs are seriously not a large "EI" component if they're well used and amortized over a period of decades.
Furthermore, if we really need chemical fuels, there are a lot of electrochemical techniques out there that would be far more efficient than what you'd get from hydrogen electrolysis. If it's a chemical process that just needs heat, heat pumps can provide that with greater than 100% efficiency as I mentioned. Electrical energy could easily be the source energy for fertilizers and the like needed for bio-fuel production, which might be the most efficient option where we still really need chemical fuels.
You say we would need a lot of windmills - well I don't personally think windmills will be the primary source in the long run, but have you counted how many nuclear plants the world will need? Tens of thousands, very likely, to meet world energy requirements by mid-century - are you ready for that?
This question is meaningless because you are offering no practical alternatives to that.
We already have tens of thousands of coal and NG fired plants, and close to a billion cars (being a type of mini-oil plants). I think living with 10-20 thousand nukes is a better alternative than abandoning our civilisation altogether.
We won't be the only ones rushing to build power plants (nuclear and otherwise). It will be hard to scale up production of concrete and steel when petroleum is getting scarce and expensive.
Of course, the same thing applies to wind, solar, etc. The time to start on this was 30 years ago, when we got our first wakeup call.
http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/3/6/11519/34768/195/
I estimate that we will need orders of less steel and concrete for nukes than for wind; I guess for solar it would be even worse.
We produce a higher proportion of the world's wafers than cement or steel or aluminum.
FEEDING THEM poridge with Dumplings of B.S. Called "GLOBAL WARMING" is not helpful for their FOGGY minds.
It just skeers them needlessly and distracts.
Stupid cheap FUNDING-CONSCIOUSNESS RAISING non-sense by people calling themselves PRIESTed in High Ivory Towered Wallz where they frequently covort nude - no linens needed in private - just in public, before the Dumbed Down Reality TV-COW-eyed Public.
The very, very GULIIBLE and Ignorant Public herd.
- cost of high-tech safety equipment
- cost of highly qualified personel
- costs of waste disposal fees, insurance etc.
If you compare them to renewables, where the bulk of expenses are for energy-intensive materials and construction activities you will see why they will be utterly unacceptable as solutions in energy-scarce world.Maybe if it's old technology with Gas Diffusion isotope enrichment instead of centrifuges it might make some kind of sense, but not in the real world.
I'd like to see some numbers. Not the fake dimensionless graphs again, but something real. Got a cite? I'm always looking for stuff on Thermal Diffusion. If they've dug up some numbers on that to make nuke look worse, I'd definitely be interested. Now there was an energy inefficient isotope separation technology. Far worse than even Electromagnetic or Gas Diffusion separation.
Of course, since you could run it off waste heat from the cooling towers, technically it didn't use any energy at all!
Nah, the eco-nuts have nuclear in the low single digits.
The numbers I posted came from the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, part of the Dept. of Energy.
See this Powerpoint presentation. The EROEIs are on slide 6.