The Oil Drum | Revisiting the Olduvai Theory

159 comments on Revisiting the Olduvai Theory

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Magnus Redin on March 6, 2006 - 3:22pm

How manny millions of humans or percent of the world population has to have an industrial/electrical civilization to keep our civilization going in a historical sense?

My back of the envelope definition of continous function as a civilization is little knowledge and culture lost, new knowledge and culture found even if the pace is slower and essential services continued like medicine production, universities, GPS and Internet.

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Magnus Redin on March 6, 2006 - 3:41pm

My point is that "western" industrial/electrical civilization has never included the whole human population even if it has affected 99+ percent of all living humans. It do not need to include the whole human population to propagate itself as a culture to future generations.

Further is industrial/electrical civilization such an overwhelmingly powerfull toolbox that I find it likely that it will continue to affect 90+ % of the world population as long as a small percentage keeps it running. At the lowest and poorest continuing level it will be those electgrically civilized people who provide with the magical communication gadgets, medicines and weapons that every self respecting and respected local leader have...

I have myself for some sentimental reason continued industrial/electrical culture as the no 1 priority. What is the meaning with human existance if we do not do anything remarkable? If no one do anything remarkable?

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Luis de Sousa on March 7, 2006 - 3:55am

Can 6500 milion people live without Electrical Civilization?

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ryvr on March 8, 2006 - 7:27pm

Anything remarkable?

I think loving people acting like humans, singing songs, and telling stories around the campfire will be much more "remarkable" than this plastic and electricity "society."

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Magnus Redin on March 9, 2006 - 5:46am

That is basic human behaviour, we can do more then only repeating what previous generations did.

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sr on March 6, 2006 - 4:54pm

Magnus, I think I agree with you, although I would add a footnote about WN and Pentti Linkola.

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Magnus Redin on March 6, 2006 - 5:23pm

Googling Pentti Linkola gives:
"A supporter for harsh reduction of Earths population and a fanatical opponent of industrialized society."

You mean as an enemy? I would rather be fanatical about preserving industrialized society and propagating a culture rich in sub cultures that at least tolerates and cross pollinates each other. All the fachistical visions I have read about sound extremely boring, what is fun with a life where you are surrounded by xerox copies of yourself? Do master race people lack imagination?

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LevinK on March 6, 2006 - 5:05pm

In the sense you are asking it is probably 1/4 to 1/3.

The problem as I see it is that maybe 90% of the population is fed with modern agriculture. The real question is if modern agriculture is sustainable. For this question I think the problems will come from soil erosion, insufficient fresh water , loss of biodiversity etc.; energy shortages will make situation a little bit worse but will not be crucial IMO.

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Don Sailorman on March 6, 2006 - 9:08pm

Magnus,
There are plenty of people just in Sweden to maintain civilization at 1950 levels of civilization or better. I suggest adding in Denmark for its pastries, ham, and cherry liqueur, plus Norway is a good source for herring and fighting men. Oh yes, keep Finland in the group, because it is good at fighting Russians in the winter.

Iceland is valuable as a source of beautiful women and salmon--other fish too.

Might be a good idea to invest in some coast guard boats and navies--oh, and especially, mine fields.

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SRSrocco on March 7, 2006 - 2:18pm

HEADING OUT...excellent job. You took Duncan's theory a step further. Expanded..if you will. It doesn't matter if one moves the graph here or there. Exponential equations all end up the same way they started. That is, there is always in inverse to any equation to make it fit to that = sign. You can't fool mother nature or physics. But, jeeesh, you give some typical Joe-Bag-of-Donuts a chance to comment about his two cents...and ya think ya got another Einstein. Not.

It is very interesting how individuals cling to algae, wind energy, sea wave motion, cow dung, aboitic methane or whatever fad is popular to help keep their delusional idea that this lifestyle can and will continue. Well, it all ends when the phat oil lady sinks.

I wonder do these folks ever think about the infrastructure and resources all these wonderful technologies will devour? Just look at the interstate-highway system. Maybe if we had one tenth of the roads....maybe...and I mean maybe...could we keep them functioning for 50 years. Does anyone realize the resources used up just for that purpose...of course not. We sit on our computers punching neat logarithms on the screen (saying from Kunstler), having no clue of the real world.

It might be more advantageous to get a few books on gardening, orcharding, or one on Living on less, than wind energy or algae for dummys.

Heading out...I just wanted to say....great job.

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Leanan on March 7, 2006 - 3:43pm

Exactly. I suspect most people have no clue how much energy goes into building and maintaining our infrastructure. Even if a handful of wealthy people can afford electric cars, what are they going to drive them on? Will people who can't afford cars be willing to pay taxes for highways so Bill Gates can keep driving his hydrogen limo?

We are going to be hard-pressed to maintain our current infrastructure, let alone build all new, as would be required for hydrogen, coal gasification, nuclear, etc.

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mshortridge on March 8, 2006 - 11:21am

Will the highways last longer when noone is driving on them? Ha-Ha.
As I drive past endless tracts of suburbia all roofed with asphalt shingles, I wonder about that little detail as a weak link among many weak links in our chain of infrastructure. Once a roof starts leaking, it is a quick trip to decay of the building. When 100 million roofs made to last 15 years all start to break down and leak just at a time when the building trades have run out of gas and material to repair them, those miles and miles of homes are all going to start to implode in slow-mo.
-Matt, former residential carpenter turned high school teacher, DC burbs

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Luis de Sousa on March 8, 2006 - 3:51am

Hi SRSrocco, thanks for your coments.

Comparing highways with renewable energy is not the smartest thing to do. Renewables can and will help just because they are renewable.

As for highways you're prabably right, my post shows how hard the gap will be to fill. Even with a steady increase in production from other energy sources the comsumption rates of today aren't likelly to prevail for long.

I'm not saying that you're wrong, the math is on your side, I just hope for a better future.

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SRSrocco on March 11, 2006 - 4:13pm

Lads...let me clear this up...if you will...all these so called renewable technologies will need plenty of R-A-W M-A-T-E-R-I-A-L. And of course lots of energy to mine..ship..manufacture and produce. Of course there will limited and local use of these technologies for sure. But for wide spread use to PLUG and PLAY our current lifestyle....you got better odds playing the LOTTO.

Renewables and reparing and replacing current infrasture will be in competition for ever depleting resources at ever increasing costs. I am an optomist...but being pragmatic today might save more skins.

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