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82 comments on On production rates and refinery capacity

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MUDLOGGER on April 11, 2006 - 1:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My understanding of the current situation is that SA wish to jump to about 120 rigs (of all types) in the near future and that they currently have about 80 working rigs.
These new rigs will include Jack ups and possibly workover hoists. One thing seems certain, You dont need to increase your fleet so massively unless you have or are about to have a problem with production flows.

So may be 16th December 2005 was the date after all?

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Stuart Staniford on April 11, 2006 - 3:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I double-checked the Baker Hughes sheet, and it says 42 on oil for March 06 (plus 18 on gas for a total of 60).  In Feb 06, it was 36 on oil and 16 on gas.  What's your source for 80?

Here's the curve according to Baker-Hughes:

Oil rig count has been cruising along in the 15-20 range for a number of years, and then takes a sharp upturn in the beginning of 2005.  Besides being about the beginning of the global production plateau, if we compare that to Saudi production specifically (the green line is the JODI version of Saudi production), we can see that the sharp upturn in rigs begans right after a litle drop in production at the beginning of 05.  The upturn in rigs has so far not resulted in any production increase to speak of.

Does it smells like a duck?  Walk like a duck?  Quack like a duck?

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MUDLOGGER on April 11, 2006 - 4:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Quack!

Source: 1) A mate in SACo. 2) Recent presentation given at Bahrain. Of course, both could be wrong. But the remarkable headline at the Bahrain conference, was the level of intended expansion to 120 rigs. This did not mention type, or over what period.

My thoughts? If they need to extract heavier oils, then lots of rigs drilling vertically with steam - flushing may be the plan. Bottle brush drilling could be another way to try and ramp up lighter crude reservoirs. Some of these additional rigs may be intended for a major exploration campaign.

BTW: SA is not the only country in the region looking to ramp up the rig count all appear to intend to do so.

Rig builders, Service Companies etc look to be busy for the next few years.

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Heading Out on April 11, 2006 - 5:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Over the lifetime of this site the SA rig targets have gone from 70 to 100 to now 120.  However, when I do a quick Google search the first site up has this. from last September.
Yet, little noticed by the outside world, the Saudis are making some bold moves. In recent months, Saudi Aramco, the national oil company, has been rapidly inking deals with drilling rig operators and oil field contractors. Some 70 drilling rigs are now operating in the kingdom, up from 55 in 2004 and about 20 in the mid-1990s.

 By next year, Aramco aims to have 110 rigs drilling, although that may be unreachable because of fierce competition for equipment.

The EIA states that by the end of this year they will have 90 operating, doubling the number that were operating in 2004.
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westexas on April 11, 2006 - 7:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Good article published one year ago:

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/08B97BCF-7BE6-4F1D-A846-7ACB9B0F8894.htm
Bank says Saudi's top field in decline
By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France

Excerpt:

Coxe dismisses Saudi claims that the country can produce extra capacity to satisfy surging demand. He notes that Saudi promises to increase production last year failed to materialise.

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82 comments on On production rates and refinery capacity

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