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GAIA Host Collective
Let's assume that Import Land produces 1.0 mbpd and consumes 2.0 mbpd. Import Land imports 1.0 mbpd from Export Land.
Let's fast forward six years. Import Land's production has dropped by 10% to 0.90 mbpd. Export Land's exports have fallen from 1.0 mbpd to 0.4 mbpd.
So, no matter how much Import Land would like to consume, the total available to Import Land is domestic production (0.9) + imports (0.4) = 1.3 mbpd, down 70% from six years ago when Import Land was consuming 2.0 mbpd--even though Import Land's production was only down 10% and Export Land's production was only down 25%.
I guess one solution is for the Neocons in Import Land to invade Export Land, claiming that Export Land is a threat to Import Land.
So, no matter how much Import Land would like to consume, the total available to Import Land is domestic production (0.9) + imports (0.4) = 1.3 mbpd, down 35% from six years ago when Import Land was consuming 2.0 mbpd--even though Import Land's production was only down 10% and Export Land's production was only down 25%.
I suspect that we are going to see this within the US and on a global basis as people move toward the energy supplies--roughly equivalent to trying to gather around a camp fire on a cold night. This will tend to aggravate the rate of increase in consumption in the energy exporting areas, thus accelerating the decline in net exports.
Absolutely right, the world's wealthy are buying into the modern mega-campfire of Dubai's skyscapers as fast as they can. I am sure you have seen the astounding photos of rampant construction on every corner. Of course, a new eruption of widespread ME war could turn these buildings in ruins rather quickly. We'll see.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smater than Yeast?
A really fascinating development is going to be on the natural gas side, especially here in the States. I would think that you would want to move away from big natural gas importing areas at the ends of the distributions systems as fast as possible. California comes to mind. Note that this would increase consumption in the exporting areas, accelerating the decline in natural gas "exports" to the "importing" areas.
I wonder if we might see the Canadians construct a wall, to keep the Americans from migrating North?
On the oil side, an obvious problem is going to be the dollar. The question that the oil exporters are going to start asking is what thing of value can you offer us in exchange for our oil, especially if the exporters have trouble exchanging dollars for hard assets. They could always buy stock, but the question arises to what the inherent value is in the US stock market, especially if the currency is depreciating.
The Neocons reasoning for putting 150,000 troops in the Middle East becomes more transparent every day. Unfortunately, I wonder if we are rapidly approaching the point at which everyone in the neighborhood is going to be shooting at us.
The case study/history that fits your criteria and is also a big player in US machinations in the ME is England. They are also on the end of natgas distribution. And only missed bigtime economic shutdowns this past winter because the weather kept breaking warm. Thoughts?
I'm sure any wealthy peaknik will move to all manner of oil-rich places depending on personality match. Of course, that will only run up consumption in those places - and exports drop quicker. I'm sure a lot of people on this site will want to move if possible to the Dubais and Ft McMurrays of the world.
(From Fuelling Fortress America)