The Lower 48 peaked at slightly less than 50% (at 49%) and the North Sea peaked at slightly over 50% (52%).  In other words, slightly less than 50% to slightly more than 50%.  These were both for crude + condensate   Deffeyes estimated that we hit the crude + condensate 50% of Qt mark worldwide in mid-December.  The highest crude + condensate EIA number on record was for December, followed promptly by about a 500,000 bpd drop in January.

In the article that Khebab and I coauthored that was published on March 6, 2006, we had following statement:

"A critical point to keep in mind is that an exporter can only export what is left after domestic consumption is satisfied. Consider a simple example, a country producing 2.0 mbpd, consuming 1.0 mbpd and therefore exporting 1.0 mbpd. Let's assume a 25% drop in production over a six year period (which we have seen in the North Sea, which by the way peaked at 52% of Qt) and let's assume a 10% increase in domestic consumption. Production would be 1.5 mbpd. Consumption would be 1.1 mbpd. Net exports would be production (1.5 mbpd) less consumption (1.1 mbpd) = 0.4 mbpd. Therefore, because of a 25% drop in production and because of a 10% increase in domestic consumption, net oil exports from our hypothetical net exporter dropped by 60%, from 1.0 mbpd to 0.4 mbpd, over a six year period.

We are deeply concerned that the world is probably facing an imminent and catastrophic collapse in net oil export capacity because of declining production and increasing domestic consumption in the top exporting countries."

From 2/10/06 to 4/7/06, total net oil imports into the US dropped 13.2%, which corresponded to a 20% increase in oil prices.

Consider the simple math.  If Deffeyes is correct, at current rates of consumption, by the time that a first grader, entering the first grade this September, 2006, is ready for the fifth grade in September, 2010, we will have used more than 10% of all remaining conventional crude + condensate reserves.