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Four times a year, they calibrate these weekly estimates to known inventories. That's what happened this week. They had a reality check, and found they didn't have as much as they thought. So much of that "build" may have been illusory all along.
The Energy Bulletin just published an article I did, which I based on the previous technical work that Khebab did.
When I analyzed Khebab's HL data earlier this year, it seemed to me that a sharp decline in net export capacity was a mathematical certainty.
Energy Bulletin article:
http://energybulletin.net/15126.html
One guy wrote back, "For some reason, I keep seeing the "Mad Max" movies in my head when you talk about this stuff....."
The prevailing attitude here? Something's gotta give. But when somebody says this, and I question them, the "something" they are talking about is gas prices, not their own driving. Funny, that.
All Americans have had their balls(or ovaries)in a sling since the overthrow of coomon sense in the 1980 epoch.Our secret powers that be infused foreign oil(mideast)into our economy and made it most acceptable with a lot of PR.But I don't forget the foreign policy that murdered millions of Iraqi and Irani men ,women and children in that 10 year war,which was then capped off by Gulf War 1 or the 1st Battle Armageddon.In Viet Nam there was blood in the mud,then it was blood in the oil.Point is since Kennedy and Eisenhower our lust has been unmatched on the world stage.Our people are lost.Common Sense is hard to find and not often spoken of(by our leaders).It is most obvious that consumption is fostered by our elite and conservation is nasty dumb crap.In all things.The conspiracies are unbelieveable because they are so odd,or unthought of. Massive interlinked think tanks do our planning and have no relation to everyman's dreams.
The Norwegian blogspot http://energikrise.blogspot.com/ has a colurful graph showing how net oil exports (believed to be all liquids) has developed for countries and regions based upon BP Statistical Review 2005 for the years 1985 through 2004.
As I have outlined previously, these are the big four regarding exports and imports. Let's abbreviate them as SAR (Saudi Arabia Russia) and USC (United States China).
SAR can, if they wish, export a volume of oil equal to domestic production less domestic consumption.
USC wants, if we can, to import a volume of oil equal to our domestic consumption less domestic production.
Consumption in all four countries is increasing.
USC's production is falling.
SAR's production is basically flat, and in my opinion, will start showing declines this year. I predict that Russia's production will fall much faster than Saudi Arabia's production. However, even if SAR's production stays flat (for a little while), their net exports are going to fall as their domestic consumption increases.
Therefore, the volume of oil that SAR can, or will, export is falling. The volume of oil that USC wants to import is increasing. The result? A war for remaining export capacity, which we hope (and pray) will be fought with currencies (or something of value) rather than with nuclear weapons.
Paraphrasing Ayn Rand, there are two ways to allocate scarce resources, with dollars or with force.
I continue to recommend that we fund Social Security/Medicare with an Energy Tax and that we abolish the Payroll Tax, combined with implementing Alanfrombigeasy's electrification of transportation proposal.
From: www.urbansurvival.com "Roving Gangs"
Another item that I mentioned on the Quayle show last night was the frightening mob beating that took place in Las Vegas this past weekend. Apparently, a "spontaneous gang" of 10-15 people decided to "swarm" and took their vengeance on innocent people who happened to get in their path.
What we have here is a prime example of what could turn into a widespread social disease in big cities when the shortages and high energy prices - almost undoubtedly accompanied by brown outs and power outages - arrive this summer. A reader writes in:
"My newlywed pregnant daughter living in Montgomery County, MD (not a cheap place) called to tell me that gangs of youths, in broad daylight, are carjacking 10 or more cars at a time, also pistol-whipping the owners. She and her husband are looking to move as quickly as they can.
(This is reminiscent of the "wolf packs" of young children in post-War Germany who were a law unto themselves.)"
Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning may offer the image of an evolving and cooperative lifestyle after "the turn," but we may have to go through a lot of ugliness to get there - and I look at the Vegas and Maryland cases as the leading edge of wolf packs of disenfranchised young men. We may have only media to blame, for failing to put hard work and diligence out on screens and tubes as admirable values. Instead we have a media-fiction world with uncountable do-overs, heroes that never get hurt, and the "something for nothing hype" from credit pimps who would have our young people buy their way into credit hell while still in high school. Yah get whatcha sow.
You can't truly be prepared for Peak Oil until you have a battery of effective self-defence weapons, along with a hefty stockpile of ammunition for those weapons, and have taught yourself to use those weapons effectively.
It's most unfortunate that this is not more readily acknowledged here on this site. Apparently, it's not "politically acceptable" to the predominantly liberal readership of this forum.
It's a matter of focus. And, in addition, the survival discussions bring with them an element that I think is best disassociated with peak oil discussions.
Survivalism, including weapons, is a worthy topic, but should be considered within the context and within the many forums specifically devoted to that topic.
It's more efficient that way.
This is a pragmatic view. Not a politically correct view. Nor a liberal or conservative view.
Discussing survivalism, guns, etc is like discussing the details of bicycle maintainance, railway building, home insulation and a thousand other topics that are influenced by peak oil.
I think it is good to mention such topics in a way that makes our readers notice that there are various solutions to all kinds of problems, especially if links can be provided to relevant information and forum debating these topics. Unfortunately I am not good at this. (embarrased cough)
I think one thing is important enough to mention manny times. The creation of social capital is essential, new friends, new relations, all kinds of cooperations and even new ways to meet people. It makes it easier to start new companies, make resources stretch further, get more security and get a more joyfull life.
Assuming I wanted to learn about composting toilets, gun laws, etc, will any of you enthusiasts post good sites to learn about them here?
In general, I think emergency planning is good. It's no different than insurance. E.g. I was watching a show the other day on the possibility of a 8.0 quake in San Francisco. People should plan to be on their own for at least a week, maybe more.
Subkommander Dred
IMO civilians should not carry concealed handguns, for two main reasons:
- Carrying makes you stupid. Instead of putting all your wits into avoiding bad situations, you put some of your attention into trying to decide whether to draw your weapon, and few civilians have the basic training you must have to become profiecient.
- Proficiency in use of a handgun is largely a "use it or lose it" skill. Few of us have the time time and determination to put in hours per week--every week--to maintain proficiency.
My young active-duty and reserve friends all carry variations on the 19ll Colt A-1, cocked and locked. Even though they are proficient and highly trained and practice extensively, I think this is a mistake, but after serving in combat for years they just get nervous walking around unarmed.If you really want to learn to use weapons, sign up for four years with the U.S. Army or U.S. Marines.
So-called self-defense classes (even the expensive ones lasting days and costing thousands of $) are, in my opinion, worse than useless, because they often instill a false sense of confidence.
I've lived in one of the most dangerous neighborhoods in the U.S., the south side of Chicago, a few blocks from the University of Chicago, at a time when it had one of the highest murder rates in the U.S. During the mid fifties, cops would patrol in fours--two on foot, two in car ready to thumb the mike for backup--because fewer than four police were likely to be attacked by the Blackstone Rangers. At no time was I ever in a dangerous situation, nor would my security ever have been improved by carrying a concealed handgun. Why? Because I knew the rules and I knew the territory.
On the other hand, Sailorman seldom leaves home without a knife, because (as the King of Norway once said, when somebody queried him about his carrying a big sheath knife concealed under his coat), "You never know when you might want a knife."
Martial arts classes are good to build strength, agility, and concentration. My most effective personal defense is damn good "radar" that keeps me aware of what is out there and how to avoid bad situations. For example, there are large areas of Minneapolis I will not drive through at any time of day--and having a loaded pistol beside me in the front passenger seat would not increase my safety much in this neighborhood.
BTW, if you do kill a few attackers, you may well well end up doing time if the jury decides that your use of force was not reasonable.
In any case, I think that the best home defense weapon may be a short barrel "Coach" double barreled shotgun.
Also, a new single-shot 12 guage Made in U.S.A. shotgun can be purchased for for about $100. Leave the gun unloaded, but make a habit of carrying a couple of cartridges loaded with #4. Slugs and 00 buckshot have a nasty habit of going through walls and hitting innocent neighbors. If you ever have children in your house, disassemble all weapons and lock up all ammo.
Do not waste good powder and shot on elderly Republican lawyers;-)
If price is an issue, forget the single shot, you can get a Mossberg version of a riot gun (.12ga pump, 8 shot, 18" barrel) for about $180 at most Wal Marts.
ten round capacity. Buy used pump shotgun ($100?) and saw off
(Barrel > 18" and total length > 27" in most states), then remove the
magazine plug for up to six or seven rounds (plug removal may be
illegal in some states). Alternate tracer plug ammo with true 00
buckshot.
I agree with you to an extent. I am pro gun. However, I always suggest that if someone is going to carry a weapon, they have to know if they are willing to pull the trigger. It does know good to get a permit and carry a weapon if when the situation arises, one freezes and doesn't use it.
In the sixties and early seventies there were large areas of Chicago's South Side where police did not go at all except by absolute necessity, in numbers. in daylight. The same neighborhoods of course had the best jazz and blues and really fine marijuana. And if your heart was not stone, walking through those 'hoods would break it.
If some white boy were fool enough to carry a gun down there it would have been quickly confiscated and resold.
Good neighbor policy generally works until you meet someone who's just crazy. Crazies are everywhere, not just cities. And when you meet a crazy is the most important time to have neighbors and not act crazy yourself.
Think for a minute of all the physically challenged, old, sick people who live in the most dangerous places imaginable, who can't afford a PoS gun, and who couldn't handle one in their dreams. They get by.
Why are younger Americans so miserable?
A psychologist has written a book called Generaton Me, about why Americans born after 1970 are more confident, assertive, entitled - and more depressed than ever before.
She argues that American young people, unlike their elders, have been raised to value self over family or society. They are told from the time they are small children how special they are. They have very high expectations. But when they leave home, they are often in for a rude surprise.
So many people are teaching their kids that the world revolves around them. They aren't disciplined like kids of older generations were. They are often home-schooled, to spare them from teachers who "don't understand them" or who might "break their spirits." I look at how my friends are raising their kids and wonder what's going to happen when those carefully coddled kids have to go out into the real world.
I've got one friend who was doted upon by her parents to an extreme degree. (A natural reaction, after her parents lost her older sibling.) She's bright, talented, has a PhD in one of the hard sciences from Harvard, a loving husband and adorable children...and is so depressed she often can't get out of bed. Has been for years. She admits that one reason is that no one out there in the real world treats her like mom and dad did.
Though it's hard to extrapolate what is often anecdotal experiences into broad cultural themes.
Signs of depression are increasing in the upper classes of China, I recently read. One chinese physician said it makes sense. You don't have time to be depressed when you're trying to survive.
Joke from the oil patch bust days:
A geologist applies for a job at a Seven Eleven. Manager says no; they already have too many geologists, but they would like some more petroleum engineers.
Post-Peak Oil:
Yale law school graduate applies for a job on a farm. Manager says no. Too many Yale graduates, but they would like more Harvard law school graduates.
If you hike someplace where there is a very small (but real) chance of being eaten, a pleasant moment of frisson may drive home your place on the planet and food chain.
Can you cite any specific sources for this (either episode, in NV or MD). I have seen no reference of it in the media, and though I am hardly surprised that media would miss important stories (such as peak oil) something like this would certainly have made the rounds of the 24 hour news channels. Indeed, they live to cover such things.
Subkommander Dred