I could add 3 or 4 additional things which could prevent new production records (any charismatic leader of a major oil producing economy dying in spectacular fashion, more hurricanes/typhoons/monsoons in production regions, any group of terrorists with global reach hitting major facilities - Chechens in Russia, for example, etc.). At this point, the knife edge has been reached - that is also a definition of peak. Everything has to work out perfectly to maintain balance. The planning has to essentially remove equally likely bad results, such as a depletion rate of 7%, not 5%? - the disclaimer 'previous results in oil production do predict future results' is likely more accurate than saying the past results have nothing to do with future results. This is what makes peak so fascinating - reality finally intrudes on all our dearly held concepts and beliefs.

Personally, this is what makes Carter so fascinating a figure to me - first, he attempted to convey a reality out of sync with the political system he was in, and then seeing that he was unable to change it, he turned his back on moral solutions and returned to a policy (guns for oil - Iraq War I was Carter's planning, not Bush's) which America had no problem following. I also suspect, he knew that his failure would lead to long tem disaster, which also tends to motivates his seemingly sincere Christian life. Sort of like Begin, post-Lebanon invasion - sometimes, leaders actually know they have failed morally. Luckily, American is currently in the hands of people who never make mistakes, least of all in their own eyes, so we don't have to worry about their atonement at all.