I thought Peak Oil always referred to peak production not peak prices. I would completely expect peak production not to be simultaneous with peak prices as it will take market hindsight to figure out that it has occurred, and then grasp the situation and react. I believe the "market" will go go so far out on a limb based on theory. To push the price higher would require that more buyers/speculators actually believe to that extreme extent the result will soon be higher prices. After all no one bids higher than they need to to buy the oil, so if not enough people believe in iminently higher prices then they aren't going to bid that. Reaching production peak does not entail that price peak will occur soon. Most players probably have no idea how long the plateau will be. When you bet you bet not just on price but on timing too. With commodities it's easy to get knocked out of a postion because you got the timing wrong and something caused a dip before the rise. In the end I thinkit's pretty darn hard to corelate market prices with physical reality as there is far too much irrational psychology involved.